Best Picture Predictions - 2018

[WrathOfHan]

Looking at Klansman's Meta score of 75, it would be the lowest rated BP winner since Crash (69). Prior to that, other mid-70s and lower scorers since the nineties are A Beautiful Mind (72), Gladiator (67), Titanic (75), Braveheart (68), and Dances with Wolves (72). Nowadays, you basically need a lot of acclaim from critics to win. Klansman is certainly something that could get people talking, but with the reviews and Lee apparently not being competitive enough to get into director (don't be wrong on this Coolio), it'll be hard for a win

[SLAM!]

1 hour ago, WrathOfHan said:

Looking at Klansman's Meta score of 75, it would be the lowest rated BP winner since Crash (69). Prior to that, other mid-70s and lower scorers since the nineties are A Beautiful Mind (72), Gladiator (67), Titanic (75), Braveheart (68), and Dances with Wolves (72). Nowadays, you basically need a lot of acclaim from critics to win. Klansman is certainly something that could get people talking, but with the reviews and Lee apparently not being competitive enough to get into director (don't be wrong on this Coolio), it'll be hard for a win

 

Are you sure there isn't any more time for the Metacritic score to rise higher than that? I'm sure that, if there's more critics out there, they can cause an increase. Even if it wouldn't rise much, every bit would help, right?

[PenguinHyphy]

On 5/19/2018 at 7:58 PM, WrathOfHan said:

Looking at Klansman's Meta score of 75, it would be the lowest rated BP winner since Crash (69). Prior to that, other mid-70s and lower scorers since the nineties are A Beautiful Mind (72), Gladiator (67), Titanic (75), Braveheart (68), and Dances with Wolves (72). Nowadays, you basically need a lot of acclaim from critics to win. Klansman is certainly something that could get people talking, but with the reviews and Lee apparently not being competitive enough to get into director (don't be wrong on this Coolio), it'll be hard for a win

 

It is probably going to receive at least fifty reviews, so the score being 75 is not all that important right now. Brooklyn's Metacritic score right after Sundance was at 78 or something around BlacKkKlansman's Metacritic score. The movie played really well throughout the year up to its release in November and began to become more acclaimed when more reviews came in. The Metacritic score might be much better upon its release. It has happened plenty of times before. There are so many movies yet to premiere/be released to say anything about winning Best Picture, though.   

Edited May 21, 2018 by PenguinHyphy

[PenguinHyphy]

It might happen, but I am still not convinced that Black Panther is going to be a Best Picture nominee. Too many influential people in the industry believe that superhero movies are everything that is wrong with American cinema. I can see Ryan Coogler receiving a DGA nomination, though. 

[filmlover]

Logan getting an Adapted Screenplay nom last year showed that the Academy isn't completely against giving comic book movies major recognition when they deserve it. Then again, that category being beyond dead was probably the most likely reason it got in.

[WrathOfHan]

32 minutes ago, filmlover said:

Logan getting an Adapted Screenplay nom last year showed that the Academy isn't completely against giving comic book movies major recognition when they deserve it. Then again, that category being beyond dead was probably the most likely reason it got in.

Right. Black Panther depends on how much the tech branches support it because it’s not getting a Screenplay nomination and Coogler is pretty unlikely in Director

[Jake Gittes]

15 hours ago, WrathOfHan said:

Looking at Klansman's Meta score of 75, it would be the lowest rated BP winner since Crash (69). Prior to that, other mid-70s and lower scorers since the nineties are A Beautiful Mind (72), Gladiator (67), Titanic (75), Braveheart (68), and Dances with Wolves (72). Nowadays, you basically need a lot of acclaim from critics to win. Klansman is certainly something that could get people talking, but with the reviews and Lee apparently not being competitive enough to get into director (don't be wrong on this Coolio), it'll be hard for a win

Inglourious Basterds was barely fresh on RT out of Cannes and then became one of the most celebrated movies of the year. Festival reactions and subsequent overall critical reception can be pretty different. 

[That One Girl]

3 minutes ago, Jake Gittes said:

Inglourious Basterds was barely fresh on RT out of Cannes and then became one of the most celebrated movies of the year. Festival reactions and subsequent overall critical reception can be pretty different. 

 

If RT watches were a thing back then everyone would be shitting their pants over Inglourious Basterds.  Its first 6 reviews would've put it at a 17% and a 4/10 average rating.  All of its Cannes reviews gave it a 54% and 5.8/10 average.

[CoolioD1]

6 minutes ago, Jake Gittes said:

Inglourious Basterds was barely fresh on RT out of Cannes and then became one of the most celebrated movies of the year. Festival reactions and subsequent overall critical reception can be pretty different. 

inglourious basterds was recut between cannes and release though. only small edits here and there but that can make or break scenes.

[FantasticBeasts]

Black Panther will get in.

It's a completely different era for superheroe films compared to TDK's time. The Academy cannot ignore them forever and BP is the best chance to give a nom given the whole political message and the fact that it actually got acclaim.

[4815162342]

2 hours ago, Jake Gittes said:

Inglourious Basterds was barely fresh on RT out of Cannes and then became one of the most celebrated movies of the year. Festival reactions and subsequent overall critical reception can be pretty different. 

 

The Cannes cut was substantially different though. Didn't QT afterwards cut an entire segment of the film that was about Shosanna getting to Paris and gaining control over the theater?

[CoolioD1]

37 minutes ago, 4815162342 said:

 

The Cannes cut was substantially different though. Didn't QT afterwards cut an entire segment of the film that was about Shosanna getting to Paris and gaining control over the theater?

no actually the theatrical cut is a minute longer w/ one extra scene. the scene just before the tavern scene where they're getting ready to go in.

[4815162342]

1 hour ago, CoolioD1 said:

no actually the theatrical cut is a minute longer w/ one extra scene. the scene just before the tavern scene where they're getting ready to go in.

 

Maybe it was an earlier pre-Cannes cut then, because I remember Maggie Cheung was in the film at some point as the original theater owner and filmed scenes.

[Jake Gittes]

Even beyond the additional editing I think Basterds initially did throw people off with... all the things it was doing. A little sinking in did it good. 

[CoolioD1]

btw thinking about it i might've convinced myself that i'm wrong about spike lee won't get a best director nomination. people really seem to want it for him and the fact that he's been so critical of the oscars in the past but he was saying nice things about their trying to change in cannes interviews tells me he wants it too and is willing to campaign for that shit.

 

it probably helps that the movie is for sure the most direct shot at the trump administration in cinema so far right down to casting. although i guess the dick cheney movie could be that too.

[stripe]

Right now I have not seen barely any hype for anyhing besides Black Panther.

 

My first guesses for this year. I am really confident with these three:

 

First Man. Chazelle is on a roll... Same with Gosling. Also, biopic. Also, History! Also, possibly nommed in many categories. And released in mid October, usually when awards talk begins.

Widows. Huge cast. Theme is promising. And it comes from Steve McQueen. Mid November release schedule. Nice for WOM to increase.

If Beale Street Could Talk. Resonating theme. Solid source in which is based. Director well respected.

 

Also strong feelings about these

On the Basis of Sex. Timely theme. Biopic. Women in front and behind it.

Black Panther. Cultural phenomenon. Theme. Praised.

Backseat. Biopic. Recognozible director. Strong cast.

A star is born. AMPAS really like this kind of film. There's prebuzz surrounding the movie.

 

And then

Mary Poppins Return

Beautiful Boy

Favourite

Mary, Queen of Scots

Sisters Brothers

Women of Marwen

A quiet place

Frontrunner

Roma

Where You'd go Bernadette

 

 

 

[The Panda]

On 5/17/2018 at 3:15 PM, filmlover said:

This feels like a classic example of a post that's bound to age poorly.

I could also see the “Coogler not in contention” posts aging as poorly as the “Get Out has no chance at a nom” posts.

 

It’s way to early to tell for sure.  I could see the academy going all in on BP, with a BD, screenplay and Supporting Actor to go with it.  I could also see it get shut out from all the main cats.  Kind of have to see the state of the race come December or so.

[The Panda]

On 5/19/2018 at 6:58 PM, WrathOfHan said:

Looking at Klansman's Meta score of 75, it would be the lowest rated BP winner since Crash (69). Prior to that, other mid-70s and lower scorers since the nineties are A Beautiful Mind (72), Gladiator (67), Titanic (75), Braveheart (68), and Dances with Wolves (72). Nowadays, you basically need a lot of acclaim from critics to win. Klansman is certainly something that could get people talking, but with the reviews and Lee apparently not being competitive enough to get into director (don't be wrong on this Coolio), it'll be hard for a win

Also, with the exception of Beautiful Mind, all of those scores are from historical epics which is an easy genre for the academy to get behind.

[The Panda]

These are kind of my predicts right now

 

The Other Side of the Wind, Norway and Roma are all Netflix now so I feel any hope for them is faint.  Maybe Mudbound changed things.  I think if any Netflix film can make it, Roma will.

 

I also think BlacKkKlansman is much weaker than people are claiming rn.  Think Beale Street and Widows will overshadow it.

 

Best Picture

Ad Astra

Backseat

Black Panther

First Man

Mary, Queen of Scots

If Beale Street Could Talk

Roma

A Star is Born

Where’d You Go, Bernadette?

Widows

Alt: Mary Poppins Returns

 

Best Director

Damien Chazelle, Firsf Man

Ryan Coogler, Black Panther

Alfonso Cuaron, Roma

Adam McKay, Backseat

Josie Rourke, Mary, Queen of Scots

Alt: Barry Jenkins, If Beale Street Could Talk

 

Best Actress

Cate Blanchett, Where’d You Go Bernadette?

Lady Gaga, A Star is Born

Viola Davis, Widows

Kiki Layne, If Beale Street Could Talk

Saoirse Ronan, Mary, Queen of Scots

Alt: Felicity Jones, On the Basis of Sex

 

Best Actor

Christian Bale, Backseat

Bradley Cooper, A Star is Born

Ryan Gosling, First Man

Lucas Hedges, Boy Erased

John David Washington, BlacKkKlansman

Alt: Steve Carell, Beautiful Boy

 

Best Supporting Actor

Steve Carell, Backseat

Timothee Chalamet, Beautiful Boy

Stephan James, If Beale Street Could Talk

Michael B. Jordan, Black Panther

Daniel Kaluuya, Widows

Alt: Sam Rockwell, Backseat

 

Supporting Actress

Amy Adams, Backseat

Margot Robbie, Mary Queen of Scots

Claire Foy, First Man

Regina King, If Beale Street Could Talk

Kristen Wiig, Where’d You Go, Bernadette?

Alt: Michelle Yeoh, Crazy Rich Asians

 

Best Original Screenplay

Ad Astra

Backseat

Eighth Grade

Roma

A Quiet Place

Alt: Hereditary

 

Best Adapted Screenplay

First Man

If Beale Street Could Talk

Mary, Queen of Scots

Where’d You Go, Bernnadette?

Widows

Alt: Black Panther

 

Best Cinematography

Ad Astra

First Man

If Beale Street Could Talk

Mary, Queen of Scots

Roma

Alt: Black Panther

 

Editing

Backseat

Black Panther

First Man

Roma

Mary, Queen of Scots

Alt: A Star is Born

 

Costume Design

Black Panther

First Man

Mary Poppins Returns

Mary, Queen of Scots

The Nutcracker and the Four Realms

Alt: Ad Astra

 

HMU Design

Backseat

Black Panther

A Star is Born

Alt: The Nutcracker and the Four Realms

 

Production Design

Ad Astra

Black Panther

First Man

The Nutcracker and the Four Realms

Mary, Queen of Scots

Alt: Mary Poppins Returns

 

Sound Editing

Ad Astra

Avengers: Infinity War

Black Panther

First Man

Mary, Queen of Scots

Alt: A Star is Born

 

Sound Mixing

Ad Astra

Black Panther

First Man

Mary Poppins Returns

A Star is Born

Alt: Mary, Queen of Scots

 

Score

Black Panther

First Man

If Beale Street Could Talk

The Incredibles 2

Mary, Queen of Scots

Alt: Everybody Knows

 

Song

Ashes, Deadpool 2 

Pray For Me, Black Panther

Mary Poppins Returns 

Mary Poppins Returns

A Star is Born

Alt: A Star is Born

 

VFX

Ad Astra

Avengers: Infinity War

Black Panther

First Man

Mary, Queen of Scots

Alt: Solo: A Star Wars Story

 

Animated

Early Man

Isle of Dogs

The Incredibles 2

Ralph Breaks the Internet: Wreck-It Ralph 2

Spider-Man: Into the Spider-Verse

Alt: Dr. Seuss’ The Grinch

 

Backseat - 6 Wins, 8 Nominations

Mary, Queen of Scots - 5 Wins, 12 Nominations

First Man - 2 Wins, 12 Nominations

Black Panther - 1 Win, 12 Nominations

Ad Astra - 1 Win, 7 Nominations

If Beale Street Could Talk - 1 Win, 7 Nominations

A Star is Born - 1 Win, 6 Nominations

Roma - 6 Nominations

Where’d You Go, Bernadette? - 4 Nominations

Widows - 4 Nominations

Mary Poppins Returns - 1 Win, 3 Nominations

Isle of Dogs - 1 Win, 1 Nomination

Avengers: Infinity War - 2 Nominations

The Nutcracker and the Four Realms - 2 Nominations

The Incredibles 2 - 2 Nominations

Beautiful Boy - 1 Nomination

BlacKkKlansman - 1 nomination

Boy Erased - 1 Nomination

Early Man - 1 Nomination

Eighth Grade - 1 Nomination

A Quiet Place - 1 Nomination

Deadpool 2 - 1 Nomination

Ralph Breaks The Internet: Wreck-It Ralph 2 - 1 Nomination

Spider-Man: Into the Spider-Verse - 1 Nomination

[Ethan Hunt]

11 hours ago, Pandamia! said:

I could also see the “Coogler not in contention” posts aging as poorly as the “Get Out has no chance at a nom” posts.

 

It’s way to early to tell for sure.  I could see the academy going all in on BP, with a BD, screenplay and Supporting Actor to go with it.  I could also see it get shut out from all the main cats.  Kind of have to see the state of the race come December or so.

There was like only one person on the Get Out isn't a BP contender train last year though