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Best Picture Predictions - 2018

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Re Black Panther, I'd like it if it happened, but I won't bet on it. Not unless there's a significant dearth of safely Oscary choices this year

 

I feel like it's one of those blockbusters that everyone thinks is pretty good as opposed to one that 80% consider a masterpiece

 

 

Edited by tribefan695
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We'll have to see what kind of narrative they can come up with to keep in the conversation until the end of the year. Mad Max: Fury Road and Get Out had the right narratives, but what kind of obstacles did a $200M Marvel movie face? Angry Internet racists whose plans to downvote the film got foiled? I don't know.

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1 hour ago, filmlover said:

We'll have to see what kind of narrative they can come up with to keep in the conversation until the end of the year. Mad Max: Fury Road and Get Out had the right narratives, but what kind of obstacles did a $200M Marvel movie face? Angry Internet racists whose plans to downvote the film got foiled? I don't know.

A) First (modern) black superhero movie that was also b ) very highly acclaimed and c) a clear cultural event while also d) having particularly notable and strong political commentary which e) deals with stuff like race that the Academy loves to eat up. Plus, f) it already seems fairly shoo-in (nomination-wise) for a lot of smaller categories like Production Design, Score, Song, etc. And g), h) & i) it made a ton of money, isn't too franchise-y unlike most SH movies and it gives the Academy a way to shut up all the people who complain about them never nominating mainstream/superhero films.

 

Don't get me wrong, I'm not going to assume it'll 100% get in (and even if it does, I don't think for a second it'll win), but it has a stronger narrative going for it than Mad Max: Fury Road at the very least. And I reckon if the Academy is ever going to nominate a Superhero movie for BP, it'll be this one.

 

 

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Yeah, Black Panther is a moment of reckoning for superhero films and the academy.  If it doesn’t get it (especially after movies like The Dark Knight, Logan, Wonder Woman and Deadpool all made a push and failed) then I don’t think a superhero movie will ever get in.  At least not until there’s a vastly different demographic makeup.

 

The Academy has been trending more towards smaller grossing passion films lately, so I have some skepticism.  However, I think there’s enough love for BP for it to get a mom and maybe even get Coogler a nod.  But yeah, it’s no guarantee, especially if arthouse and oscarbait come in strong this year.

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