filmlover Posted September 4, 2018 Share Posted September 4, 2018 (edited) Can You Ever Forgive Me? and Boy Erased both sound like solid potential lower-half Best Picture contenders so far. Doesn't hurt that both films are sure to be the #2's of their studios (Fox Searchlight and Focus, who have juggled double films well in the past) this season. Edited September 4, 2018 by filmlover Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
titanic2187 Posted September 5, 2018 Share Posted September 5, 2018 On 9/2/2018 at 8:36 AM, Webslinger said: I wouldn't be surprised if Roma suffers backlash from being released on Netflix, small-scale theatrical release or none, and that could cost it the win. We'll see, though. I hope the academy won't dismiss Roma for that reason, we need a foreign language film to be nominated for BP, it is been 6 years since Amour 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Cap Posted September 6, 2018 Share Posted September 6, 2018 With them axing Best Popular Film, Black Panther emerges as the front runner. They boxed themselves into a corner. The FUBAR if it misses will be legendary. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ezen Baklattan Posted September 7, 2018 Author Share Posted September 7, 2018 Beautiful Boy premieres at TIFF tomorrow. Could probably go either way. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
filmlover Posted September 7, 2018 Share Posted September 7, 2018 2 minutes ago, Spagheditary said: Beautiful Boy premieres at TIFF tomorrow. Could probably go either way. I'm obviously gonna see it but I'm not expecting much more than a well-acted tearjerker tbh. The similarly-themed Ben is Back will be premiering Saturday. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ezen Baklattan Posted September 8, 2018 Author Share Posted September 8, 2018 Word on THE HATE U GIVE is pretty great so far - not sure if it can go all the way, but Stenberg could have potential in Actress. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
filmlover Posted September 8, 2018 Share Posted September 8, 2018 3 minutes ago, Spagheditary said: Word on THE HATE U GIVE is pretty great so far - not sure if it can go all the way, but Stenberg could have potential in Actress. That movie does look quite effective. Looking forward to it. Stenberg's chances will only go up though if Widows turns out to be a nonstarter considering they're both from Fox. Actress is packed as hell this year. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ezen Baklattan Posted September 8, 2018 Author Share Posted September 8, 2018 It’ll also need to be a big box office hit. Like triple digit total. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
filmlover Posted September 8, 2018 Share Posted September 8, 2018 I'll be impressed if The Hate U Give makes more than $30-40M total. Stenberg's best chance is a Golden Globe nomination and even that feels like a stretch. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Cmasterclay Posted September 8, 2018 Share Posted September 8, 2018 (edited) Russell Hornsby has a shot too - Supporting Actor is weaker than Actress this year and he's getting glowing notices. The Hate U Give, Boy Erased, and Can You Ever Forgive Me all have very "depends on how the rest of the year fills out, but this is good!" type reviews. Roma, First Man, Star is Born, The Favourite, Black Klansman, and Black Panther feels like a definitive top six in the early going, with everything else battling for the last two spots. Will have to see if Beale Street/Widows/Backseat break glow enough to break into that. Beautiful Boy is clearly only a play for Chalamet (definitely getting nommed) and Carrell (depends on rest of category) at this point, the reviews are middling on the movie itself. Edited September 8, 2018 by Cmasterclay 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
filmlover Posted September 8, 2018 Share Posted September 8, 2018 2 minutes ago, Cmasterclay said: Russell Hornsby has a shot too - Supporting Actor is weaker than Actress this year and he's getting glowing notices. The Hate U Give, Boy Erased, and Can You Ever Forgive Me all have very "depends on how the rest of the year fills out, but this is good!" type reviews. Roma, First Man, Star is Born, The Favourite, Black Klansman, and Black Panther feels like a definitive top six in the early going, with everything else battling for the last two spots. Will have to see if Beale Street/Widows/Backseat break glow enough to break into that. Beautiful Boy is clearly only a play for Chalamet (definitely getting nommed) and Carrell (depends on rest of category) at this point, the reviews are middling on the movie itself. I just said this in the Supporting Actor thread but I don't think even Chalamet's getting nominated either. He's getting the raves, but the film is likely gonna be way too much of a non-factor otherwise. 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Cmasterclay Posted September 8, 2018 Share Posted September 8, 2018 5 minutes ago, filmlover said: I just said this in the Supporting Actor thread but I don't think even Chalamet's getting nominated either. He's getting the raves, but the film is likely gonna be way too much of a non-factor otherwise. Ehhhhh yea but I mean this year sucks ass in this category. Almost everything has already been seen and Jordan, Elliot, Grant, and Crowe are the only ones who even have a remote chance. Very thin year. So unless all four of those guys get in (no lock - Elliot and Crowe don't even get mentioned in alot of reviews) and either Kayuula or Rockwell brings the house down, I don't see how he misses. It's thin af. 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
filmlover Posted September 8, 2018 Share Posted September 8, 2018 1 minute ago, Cmasterclay said: Ehhhhh yea but I mean this year sucks ass in this category. Almost everything has already been seen and Jordan, Elliot, Grant, and Crowe are the only ones who even have a remote chance. Very thin year. So unless all four of those guys get in (no lock - Elliot and Crowe don't even get mentioned in alot of reviews) and either Kayuula or Rockwell brings the house down, I don't see how he misses. It's thin af. I wouldn't rule out Adam Driver getting nominated. BlacKkKlansman is likely gonna be a big player and he's building quite the impressive filmography so far. For sure I would give him a stronger shot than Timothee right now. 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoolioD1 Posted September 8, 2018 Share Posted September 8, 2018 bleecker street are pushing ben foster supporting for leave no trace. that might be something. 4 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SLAM! Posted September 8, 2018 Share Posted September 8, 2018 (edited) 2 hours ago, CoolioD1 said: bleecker street are pushing ben foster supporting for leave no trace. that might be something. I think you're right. Leave No Trace is only about $3,000 dollars away from Captain Fantastic's unadjusted box office gross, and they were able to successfully campaign Viggo Mortensen for the latter film in a weak-ish Best Actor field that also had some top-tier misses (Joel Edgerton for Loving, Tom Hanks for Sully, Adam Driver for Paterson, Chris Pine for Hell or High Water). This year's Supporting Actor situation is very reminiscent of that situation, and I believe that Leave No Trace as a film is good enough to warrant Ben Foster trudging through the critic awards and sneaking in a nomination. Edited September 8, 2018 by Slambros Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WrathOfHan Posted September 8, 2018 Share Posted September 8, 2018 7 hours ago, Cmasterclay said: Russell Hornsby has a shot too - Supporting Actor is weaker than Actress this year and he's getting glowing notices. The Hate U Give, Boy Erased, and Can You Ever Forgive Me all have very "depends on how the rest of the year fills out, but this is good!" type reviews. Roma, First Man, Star is Born, The Favourite, Black Klansman, and Black Panther feels like a definitive top six in the early going, with everything else battling for the last two spots. Will have to see if Beale Street/Widows/Backseat break glow enough to break into that. Beautiful Boy is clearly only a play for Chalamet (definitely getting nommed) and Carrell (depends on rest of category) at this point, the reviews are middling on the movie itself. I think CYEFM is a bit above those other two largely because McCarthy and Grant feel pretty safe for nominations (especially the latter because god fucking DAMN is Supporting Actor empty). Picture, Screenplay, and anything else depend on how the rest of the field plays out, yeah. 7 hours ago, CoolioD1 said: bleecker street are pushing ben foster supporting for leave no trace. that might be something. yes plz. Work that magic, Bleecker Street Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Cmasterclay Posted September 9, 2018 Share Posted September 9, 2018 (edited) They've both gotten the "too commercial" or "too genre" tags, but based on the reactions and reviews I think both Widows and The Hate U Give are real contenders for a nom. Rousing crowd pleasers with diverse, outstanding ensembles that touch on weighty subjects? Seems like the potential is there, especially with the new makeup of the Academy. If Beale Street is great, and Green Room is good, and Backseat lives up to the hype, this is suddenly a pretty crowded BP race. Edited September 9, 2018 by Cmasterclay Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Eric Duncan Posted September 9, 2018 Share Posted September 9, 2018 (edited) I'd love to see THUG earn a BP nom, but I feel like being based on a YA novel could give it some baggage. I can see a scenario where some Academy voters may find that they're above a film with that kind of label. Also doesn't help that it seems like a film that will get lost in the shuffle when it comes to the box office. Edited September 9, 2018 by CoolEric258 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
filmlover Posted September 9, 2018 Share Posted September 9, 2018 Widows so far feels like another The Town to me: box office will likely be great and it'll nab an acting nom or two, but it might not have the passion for the movie itself necessary to get into the Best Picture race. Also @Cmasterclay, I think you mean Green Book. So far we haven't had a single bust this festival season. Unless we actually want to count Life Itself lmao. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Eric Duncan Posted September 9, 2018 Share Posted September 9, 2018 3 minutes ago, filmlover said: So far we haven't had a single bust this festival season. Unless we actually want to count Life Itself lmao. The Front Runner? Also to a lesser extent Destroyer, since it seems like a love it/hate it kind of film. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
