Best Picture Predictions - 2018

[filmlover]

1 minute ago, CoolEric258 said:

The Front Runner? Also to a lesser extent Destroyer, since it seems like a love it/hate it kind of film.

I actually forgot The Front Runner had already screened lol. Bodes so well for that movie's prospects!

 

Judging by everything I had heard about Destroyer before I never really considered it a likely contender in the first place.

[Joel M]

2 hours ago, filmlover said:

I actually forgot The Front Runner had already screened lol. Bodes so well for that movie's prospects!

 

Judging by everything I had heard about Destroyer before I never really considered it a likely contender in the first place.

 

Both of those movies looked like actor/actress plays and little else and they still have a shot at that. If best actor is weak and the Front Runner does well I can see Jackman getting nominated, same for Kidman.

 

There's no Billy Lyn, Suffragete high profile disaster this year.

[WrathOfHan]

I'm starting to toy around with the possibility of Damien Chazelle getting snubbed. Lanthimos/Cuaron/Cooper look like a pretty solid top three, so he's probably battling it out with McQueen, Lee, and McKay. I think McQueen is over him at the very least (his last movie won BP and Widows has better reviews than First Man to name some reasons), and depending how much buzz the other two have, they could make it in over him. If AD Astra is coming out this year, James Gray could be ahead of him too. We'll see what happens.

 

Also, I think Kaluuya is going to win Supporting Actor. Never underestimate villains in this category.

Edited September 9, 2018 by WrathOfHan

[CoolioD1]

2 minutes ago, WrathOfHan said:

I'm starting to toy around with the possibility of Damien Chazelle getting snubbed. Lanthimos/Cuaron/Cooper look like a pretty solid top three, so he's probably battling it out with McQueen, Lee, and McKay. I think McQueen is over him at the very least (his last movie won BP and Widows has better reviews than First Man to name some reasons), and depending how much buzz the other two have, they could make it in over him. If AD Astra is coming out this year, James Gray could be ahead of him too. We'll see what happens.

 

Also, I think Kaluuya is going to win Supporting Actor. Never underestimate villains in this category.

i could see fox deciding not to bother with ad astra this year if widows is the real deal.

[Jake Gittes]

50 minutes ago, WrathOfHan said:

I'm starting to toy around with the possibility of Damien Chazelle getting snubbed. Lanthimos/Cuaron/Cooper look like a pretty solid top three, so he's probably battling it out with McQueen, Lee, and McKay. I think McQueen is over him at the very least (his last movie won BP and Widows has better reviews than First Man to name some reasons), and depending how much buzz the other two have, they could make it in over him. If AD Astra is coming out this year, James Gray could be ahead of him too. We'll see what happens.

 

Also, I think Kaluuya is going to win Supporting Actor. Never underestimate villains in this category.

I don't see Chazelle losing a spot to McQueen ("his last movie won BP" isn't a reason, we are talking about his new movie, and First Man seems like it'll be showier in the directing department), but he's definitely not in top 3 and could fall out if the McKay is Big Short 2.0. 

 

I read a review of Widows that referred to Kaluuya's "two big scenes" and that may not be enough. He's being compared with Robocop and Anton Chigurh and to win for that kind of performance, as Bardem did, I think you need to be more prominent in the story. Grant looks like a safer bet. 

[Ezen Baklattan]

Maybe too early to fully get a picture but BEALE STREET is getting raves on Twitter.

[WrathOfHan]

 

[Cmasterclay]

Absolute raves for Beale Street, too bad it apparently sucks and is being delayed! @WrathOfHan

[4815162342]

It is always a hoot when @WrathOfHan's nebulous Oscar hot takes based upon the scantiest of rumors get absolutely blown out of the water by reality.

[CoolioD1]

Ha Ha Ha, oh wow.

[filmlover]

Consider this a lesson to not put so much stock in a random Internet person who saw a very early cut of a movie, MRAthOfHan.

 

Really happy for the reception to Beale Street. This is shaping up to be a really strong season. Even the "nonstarters" are getting warmly received for the most part.

[Cmasterclay]

Yea frankly this looks like the best season in awhile. Gonna be a few fun months. Shit like Sisters Brothers, Hotel Mumbai, 22 July, and Mid 90s won't get any real notice from Oscars but they're still apparently great.

[aabattery]

I like it when movies are good.

[titanic2187]

On 9/7/2018 at 5:23 AM, captainwondyful said:

With them axing Best Popular Film, Black Panther emerges as the front runner. They boxed themselves into a corner. The FUBAR if it misses will be legendary. 

With 8000+ members, they have to convince 400+people that black panther is single best movie of the year, it is just insane!

And the academy can easily get rid of racist controversy if blackklanman is out there as alternative, just like last year, they snub wonder woman when lady bird , SOW and 3 billboard were female-centric

[WrathOfHan]

Once again, fuck all of you.

[stripe]

From the movies screened, these received strong first reactions or early raves so far.

Widows, First Man, Favourite, If Beale Street could talk, Roma, A Star is Born, Sister Brothers.

 

Add already opened movies such as Black Panther and Blackkkansman to the mix.

 

On the other hand, early reactions for Beautiful Boy and The Front Runner have been far from stellar.

 

Do I miss other strong candidates already seen?

[Ezen Baklattan]

Does A24 have anything besides Mid90s? Probably won’t go all the way but could at least get a screenplay nod.

[Ezen Baklattan]

1 hour ago, stripe said:

From the movies screened, these received strong first reactions or early raves so far.

Widows, First Man, Favourite, If Beale Street could talk, Roma, A Star is Born, Sister Brothers.

 

Add already opened movies such as Black Panther and Blackkkansman to the mix.

 

On the other hand, early reactions for Beautiful Boy and The Front Runner have been far from stellar.

 

Do I miss other strong candidates already seen?

Pretty much. CYEFM and Boy Erased are getting pretty strong marks, but not enough to clearly be a safe bet.

 

I don’t have much faith in Focus’ other two projects, and I haven’t heard a peep about Backseat at this point. I wonder if the strong reception for Beale Street is gonna have Annapurna focus on that and Backseat gets pushed to 2019.

[filmlover]

1 minute ago, Spagheditary said:

Does A24 have anything besides Mid90s? Probably won’t go all the way but could at least get a screenplay nod.

There's Hereditary, but that's not really in contention for anything but Collette (and even her chances feel like they're fading by the day with how crowded Best Actress is).

[filmlover]

Just now, Spagheditary said:

Pretty much. CYEFM and Boy Erased are getting pretty strong marks, but not enough to clearly be a safe bet.

 

I don’t have much faith in Focus’ other two projects, and I haven’t heard a peep about Backseat at this point. I wonder if the strong reception for Beale Street is gonna have Annapurna focus on that and Backseat gets pushed to 2019.

The Big Short appeared to be a 2016 release until late September 2015 when it was added to the schedule and the trailer was released at the same time. If we continue to get nothing around that time, then we can start to speculate.