Best Picture Predictions - 2018

[4815162342]

The only thing I don't like about Festival Season (followed closely by the obsessive early Critic Award Season) is that almost EVERYTHING screens, which has really eliminated a good ol'fashioned November/December surprise

[CoolioD1]

1 minute ago, 4815162342 said:

The only thing I don't like about Festival Season (followed closely by the obsessive early Critic Award Season) is that almost EVERYTHING screens, which has really eliminated a good ol'fashioned November/December surprise

it's true the last best picture that didn't play cannes/venice/toronto was the departed. it's only gonna get worse next year when the oscars are moved up a couple weeks you probably won't even have a late premiere-er like phantom thread or the revenant nominated let alone win.

[WrathOfHan]

1 hour ago, 4815162342 said:

The only thing I don't like about Festival Season (followed closely by the obsessive early Critic Award Season) is that almost EVERYTHING screens, which has really eliminated a good ol'fashioned November/December surprise

In Vice we trust?

[filmlover]

Fox has changed The Hate U Give's release pattern from an October 19 wide release to a limited start on October 5 followed by an expansion the week after leading into a wide expansion on the 19th. Looks like they're starting to position it as a contender.

[The Panda]

So I’m thinking

 

Roma

A Star is Born

The Favourite

BlacKkKlansman

First Man

 

all seem like the safest bets

 

Widows, Black Panther, The Hate U Give, If Beale Street Could Talk, Boy Erased all seem to be in competition for the last few spots

 

Still waiting on the word for things like Backseat, Ad Astra, Bohemian Rhapsody, Mary Poppins Returns and Mary, Queen of Scots

 

Movies like Leave No Trace, Eighth Grade, Crazy Rich Asians, A Quiet Place, First Reformed etc. would need some major critic award pushes to make a comeback

Edited September 11, 2018 by PANDA

[Cmasterclay]

Green Book is apparently ultra crowdpleasing and even got applause at the press screening. It's not getting blow away reviews, but they're universally pretty good and Viggo and Ali are getting huge praise. With how weak the male categories are this year, I can potentially see them both pushing into the 4/5 spots in whatever categories they are campaigned in, if the movie makes money and gets a solid rollout.

[stripe]

Reviews for Hate u give are great!

 

Race this year looks to be fierce. Too many strong candidates at this moment!

 

Roma (but Netflix...)

A Star is Born 

Widows 

First Man

Favourite

Hate u give

If Beale street could talk

Black Panther

Blakkkansman

 

With some unseen challengers with strong awareness

Backseat

Mary Queen of Scots

Marwen

Ad astra

On the basis of sex

 

 

[WrathOfHan]

22 hours ago, Cmasterclay said:

Green Book is apparently ultra crowdpleasing and even got applause at the press screening. It's not getting blow away reviews, but they're universally pretty good and Viggo and Ali are getting huge praise. With how weak the male categories are this year, I can potentially see them both pushing into the 4/5 spots in whatever categories they are campaigned in, if the movie makes money and gets a solid rollout.

Ali will get into Supporting I think. Being a recent winner will help a lot.

 

On another Supporting Actor note, I wonder if McConaughey can somehow sneak in for White Boy Rick. It has random SAG nomination written all over it, and Sony worked their magic with Denzel last year. 

[filmlover]

1 hour ago, WrathOfHan said:

Ali will get into Supporting I think. Being a recent winner will help a lot.

 

On another Supporting Actor note, I wonder if McConaughey can somehow sneak in for White Boy Rick. It has random SAG nomination written all over it, and Sony worked their magic with Denzel last year. 

Denzel got in because he's Denzel. White Boy Rick is looking to make double what Roman J. Israel, Esq. did but the afterglow of McConaughey's Oscar glory has pretty much faded completely five years later, so I really don't see a scenario where he can make it for a mixed-reviewed September release that no one will be talking about by the end of the year, especially when Sony will likely push The Front Runner harder despite a far-from-glowing reception.

Edited September 13, 2018 by filmlover

[SLAM!]

Golden Globe Nominee Predictions

(because I'm bored)

 

Best Picture (Drama)

* Black Panther

* First Man

* Green Book

* If Beale Street Could Talk

* Widows

 

Best Picture (Comedy/Musical)

* Black Klansman

* Crazy Rich Asians

* The Favourite

* A Star is Born

* Vice

 

Best Actor (Drama)

* Willem Dafoe, At Eternity's Gate

* Lucas Hedges, Boy Erased

* Ryan Gosling, First Man

* Viggo Mortensen, Green Book

* Robert Redman, The Old Man & The Gun

 

Best Actor (Comedy/Musical)

* John David Washington, Black Klansman

* Rami Malek, Bohemian Rhapsody

* Bradley Cooper, A Star is Born

* Christian Bale, Vice

* Steve Carell, Welcome to Marwen

 

Best Actress (Drama)

* Melissa McCarthy, Can You Ever Forgive Me?

* Nicole Kidman, Destroyer

* Felicity Jones, On The Basis of Sex

* Viola Davis, Widows

* Glenn Close, The Wife

 

Best Actress (Comedy/Musical)

* Constance Wu, Crazy Rich Asians

* Elsie Fisher, Eighth Grade

* Olivia Colman, The Favourite

* Emily Blunt, Mary Poppins Returns

* Lady Gaga, A Star is Born

 

Best Supporting Actor

* Timothee Chalamet, Beautiful Boy

* Michael B. Jordan, Black Panther

* Richard E. Grant, Can You Ever Forgive Me?

* Mahershala Ali, Green Book

* Daniel Kaluuya, Widows

 

Best Supporting Actress

* Michelle Yeoh, Crazy Rich Asians

* Claire Foy, First Man

* Regina King, If Beale Street Could Talk

* Amy Adams, Vice

* Michelle Rodriguez, Widows

[Cap]

@Slambros

 

- I think you are overestimating Green Book

- best actor (drama) I would swap out viggo for Boseman. GG are way more star-fucky and if Black Panther wants to make a move for the acting catogories it’s gotta make its first attack here. 

- lol at everyone high on Claire Foy.

 

othwrise, yeah. Looks legit. 

 

Edited September 13, 2018 by captainwondyful
Make a move not make a movie

[WrathOfHan]

Meta scores for stuff competing in Picture/Director/Acting/Screenplay:

 

Roma: 96 (19 reviews)

The Favourite: 91 (14 reviews)

Eighth Grade: 90 (45 reviews)

 

Black Panther: 88 (55 reviews)

Leave No Trace: 88 (44 reviews)

Vox Lux: 88 (9 reviews)

Hereditary: 87 (49 reviews)

A Star Is Born: 87 (26 reviews)

Widows: 87 (13 reviews)

If Beale Street Could Talk: 86 (14 reviews)

First Reformed: 85 (47 reviews)

The Old Man and the Gun: 85 (11 reviews)

 

Mid90s: 84 (5 reviews)

BlacKkKlansman: 83 (56 reviews)

Can You Ever Forgive Me?: 83 (9 reviews)

First Man: 83 (23 reviews)

Isle of Dogs: 82 (55 reviews)

The Other Side of the Wind: 82 (9 reviews)

A Quiet Place: 82 (55 reviews)

The Hate U Give: 81 (8 reviews)

 

The Sisters Brothers: 78 (17 reviews)

The Ballad of Buster Scruggs: 76 (12 reviews)

The Wife: 76 (32 reviews)

Boy Erased: 74 (8 reviews)

Crazy Rich Asians: 74 (48 reviews)

At Eternity's Gate: 73 (7 reviews)

 

The Front Runner: 67 (9 reviews)

Green Book: 66 (6 reviews)

Ben Is Back: 65 (6 reviews)

Destroyer: 65 (10 reviews)

Beautiful Boy: 64 (9 reviews)

[filmlover]

12 hours ago, Slambros said:

Best Supporting Actress

* Michelle Rodriguez, Widows

Elizabeth Debicki is the one most likely to get a Supporting Actress nom for Widows. She's been building a solid filmography the past five years and most reviews have singled her out for praise.

[titanic2187]

2 hours ago, WrathOfHan said:

Meta scores for stuff competing in Picture/Director/Acting/Screenplay:

 

Roma: 96 (19 reviews)

The Favourite: 91 (14 reviews)

Eighth Grade: 90 (45 reviews)

 

Black Panther: 88 (55 reviews)

Leave No Trace: 88 (44 reviews)

Vox Lux: 88 (9 reviews)

Hereditary: 87 (49 reviews)

A Star Is Born: 87 (26 reviews)

Widows: 87 (13 reviews)

If Beale Street Could Talk: 86 (14 reviews)

First Reformed: 85 (47 reviews)

The Old Man and the Gun: 85 (11 reviews)

 

Mid90s: 84 (5 reviews)

BlacKkKlansman: 83 (56 reviews)

Can You Ever Forgive Me?: 83 (9 reviews)

First Man: 83 (23 reviews)

Isle of Dogs: 82 (55 reviews)

The Other Side of the Wind: 82 (9 reviews)

A Quiet Place: 82 (55 reviews)

The Hate U Give: 81 (8 reviews)

 

The Sisters Brothers: 78 (17 reviews)

The Ballad of Buster Scruggs: 76 (12 reviews)

The Wife: 76 (32 reviews)

Boy Erased: 74 (8 reviews)

Crazy Rich Asians: 74 (48 reviews)

At Eternity's Gate: 73 (7 reviews)

 

The Front Runner: 67 (9 reviews)

Green Book: 66 (6 reviews)

Ben Is Back: 65 (6 reviews)

Destroyer: 65 (10 reviews)

Beautiful Boy: 64 (9 reviews)

I hope Roma can sneak in in the final list.

2 main disadvantages that go against its odd.

1) In Mexican Spanish, only one pure non-english film entered the final BP list since they expanded the slot to maximum 10, amour.

2) Netflix business model is not getting love from older voters.  

[Ezen Baklattan]

GREEN BOOK won top prize at TIFF.

 

Holy shit.

[KeepItU25071906]

19 minutes ago, Spagheditary said:

GREEN BOOK won top prize at TIFF.

 

Holy shit.

Great!

 

But I'm sure this is the 0% chance to win the Academy Award.

[The Panda]

My September predictions (in order of my personal confidence)

 

My main takeways that may be different than others

 

I think First Man and Widows are vulnerable, I think Green Book could turn into a top 5 contender and I think The Hate U Give could turn into a surprise nominee

 

Best Picture

(Safe)

1. Roma 

2. A Star is Born

3. The Favourite

 

(Decent Bets)

4. BlacKkKlansman

5. Green Book

6. If Beale Street Could Talk

7. Vice

8. Black Panther

9. First Man

10. The Hate U Give

Fringes: Widows, Boy Erased, Can You Ever Forgive Me?, Mary, Queen of Scots, Ad Astra, Beautiful Boy, Crazy Rich Asians, The Old Man and the Gun, On the Basis of Sex

 

Director

1. Alfonso Cuaron - Roma

2. Bradley Cooper - A Star is Born

3. Yorgos Lanthimos - The Favourite

4. Spike Lee - BlacKkKlansman

5. Adam McKay - Vice

Fringes: Damien Chazelle (First Man), Barry Jenkins (Beale Street), Steve McQueen (Widows), James Gray (Ad Astra), Peter Farrely (Green Book)

 

Actress

1. Lady Gaga - A Star is Born

2. Olivia Colman - The Favourite

3. Yalitza Aparicio - Roma

4. Glenn Close - The Wife

5. Amandla Stenberg - The Hate U Give

Fringes: Viola Davis (Widows), Melissa McCarthy (Forgive Me), Nicole Kidman (Destroyer), Kiki Layne (Beale Street), Saoirse Ronan (Mary, Queen), Toni Colette (Hereditary)

 

Actor

1. Bradley Cooper - A Star is Born

2. Christian Bale - Vice

3. Ryan Gosling - First Man

4. John David Washington - BlacKkKlansman

5. Viggo Mortenson - Green Book

Fringes: Rami Malek (Bohemian Rhapsody), Robert Redford (Old Man and the Gun), Ethan Hawke (First Reformed), Willem Dafoe (Eternity)

 

Supporting Actress (Hardest to predict lol)

1. Rachel Weisz - The Favourite

2. Amy Adams - Vice

3. Regina King - If Beale Street Could Talk

4. Marina de Tavira - Roma

5. Regina Hall - The Hate U Give

Fringes: Claire Foy (First Man), Emma Stone (The Favourite), Nicole Kidman (Boy Erased), Michelle Yeoh (Crazy Rich Asians), Margot Robbie (Mary, Queen of Scots), Meryl Streep (Mary Poppins Returns), Elizabeth Debicki (Widows), Sissy Spacek (The Old Man and the Gun)

 

Supporting Actor

1. Sam Elliott - A Star is Born

2. Mahershala Ali - Green Book

3. Sam Rockwell - Vice

4. Daniel Kaluuya - Widows

5. Timothee Chalamet - Beautiful Boy

Fringes: Michael B. Jordan (Black Panther), Richard E. Grant (Can You Ever Forgive Me?), Adam Driver (BlacKkKlansman)

 

Adapted Screenplay

1. A Star is Born

2. BlacKkKlansman

3. If Beale Street Could Talk

4. Black Panther

5. The Hate U Give

Fringes: First Man, Widows, Can You Ever Forgive Me?, Crazy Rich Asians, Mary, Queen of Scots

 

Original Screenplay

1. Roma

2. The Favourite

3. Vice

4. Green Book

5. Eighth Grade

Fringes: First Reformed, A Quiet Place, At Eternity's Gate, Sorry to Bother You, Hereditary

 

Editing

1. Roma

2. The Favourite

3. A Star is Born

4. First Man

5. Black Panther

Fringes: BlacKkKlansman, Vice, Ad Astra, Widows, The Hate U Give

 

Cinematography

1. Roma

2. A Star is Born

3. First Man

4. The Favourite

5. Ad Astra

Fringes: If Beale Street Could Talk, Vice, Cold War, Peterloo

 

Production Design

1. The Favourite

2. Black Panther

3. Mary Poppins Returns

4. Ad Astra

5. Roma

Fringes: Fantastic Beasts, First Man, BlacKkKlansman, Mary, Queen of Scots, Nutcracker

 

Costume Design

1. The Favourite

2. Black Panther

3. Mary Poppins Returns

4. Mary, Queen of Scots

5. Fantastic Beasts: The Crimes of Grindewald

Fringes: The Nutcracker, First Man, Ad Astra

 

Makeup and Hairstyling

1. Vice

2. The Favourite

3. Black Panther

Fringes: Bohemian Rhapsody, Mary, Queen of Scots

 

Original Score

1. First Man

2. Ad Astra

3. Black Panther

4. If Beale Street Could Talk

5. Roma

Fringes: Mary Poppins Returns, The Ballad of Buster Scruggs, Isle of Dogs, Incredibles 2, BlacKkKlansman, Avengers: Infinity War

 

Original Song

1. The Shallow, A Star is Born

2. I'll Never Love Again, A Star is Born

3. All the Stars, Black Panther

4. Mary Poppins Returns

5. Ashes, Deadpool 2

Fringes: Alfie's Song (Love Simon)

 

Sound Editing

1. Black Panther

2. A Quiet Place

3. First Man

4. Ad Astra

5. Roma

Fringes: Avengers: Infinity War, Mission: Impossible - Fallout, A Star is Born, Annihilation, Bohemian Rhapsody

 

Sound Mixing

1. A Quiet Place

2. A Star is Born

3. First Man

4. Black Panther

5. Roma

Fringes: Bohemian Rhapsody, Ad Astra, Avengers: Infinity War, Mary Poppins Returns

 

VFX

1. Ad Astra

2. Avengers: Infinity War

3. First Man

4. Black Panther

5. Annihilation

Fringes: Solo, Ready Player One, Fantastic Beasts, Ant-Man and the Wasp

 

Animated Feature

1. Isle of Dogs

2. Incredibles 2

3. Ralph Breaks the Internet

4. Mirai

5. Early Man

Fringes: Spider-Man: Into the Spider-Verse, The Grinch

 

Foreign Feature

1. Roma

2. I Am Not a Witch

3. Birds of Passage

4. The Journey

5. Buffalo Boys

 

Documentary Feature

1. Won't You Be My Neighbor?

2. Three Identical Strangers

3. RBG

4. The Elephant Queen

5. Whitney

 

Roma - 6 Wins, 12 Nominations

A Star is Born - 4 Wins, 11 Nominations

The Favourite - 3 Wins, 7 Nominations

Black Panther - 1 Win, 11 Nominations

Vice - 1 Win, 7 Nominations

First Man - 1 Win, 7 Nominations

Ad Astra - 1 Win, 5 Nominations

A Quiet Place - 1 Win, 2 Nominations

Isle of Dogs - 1 Win, 1 Nomination

Won't You Be My Neighbor? - 1 Win, 1 Nomination

The Hate U Give - 4 Nominations

Green Book - 4 Nominations

If Beale Street Could Talk - 4 Nominations

BlackKklansman - 4 Nominations

Mary Poppins Returns - 3 Nominations

Incredibles 2 - 1 Nomination

Deadpool 2 - 1 Nomination

Eighth Grade - 1 Nomination

The Wife - 1 Nomination

Widows - 1 Nomination

Fantastic Beasts: The Crimes of Grindewald - 1 Nomination

Mary, Queen of Scots - 1 Nomination

Beautiful Boy - 1 Nomination

Avengers: Infinity War - 1 Nomination

Annihilation -1 Nomination

Ralph Breaks the Internet - 1 Nomination

Mirai - 1 Nomination

Early Man - 1 Nomination

I Am Not A Witch - 1 Nomination

Birds of Passage - 1 Nomination

The Journey - 1 Nomination

Buffalo Boys - 1 Nomination

Three Identical Strangers - 1 Nomination

RBG - 1 Nomination

The Elephant Queen - 1 Nomination

Whitney - 1 Nomination

Edited September 16, 2018 by PANDA

[KeepItU25071906]

"

31 minutes ago, PANDA said:

7. Vice

 

32 minutes ago, PANDA said:

5. Adam McKay - Vice

Vice" wasn't at Telluride and Toronto 

 

 

 

32 minutes ago, PANDA said:

Original Score

 

5. Roma

 

 

Roma doesn't have the original score

[WrathOfHan]

IT IS TIME:

Spoiler

Picture:

 

1. A Star Is Born

2. The Favourite

3. Roma

4. BlacKkKlansman

5. Widows

6. Vice

7. First Man

8. Black Panther

9. If Beale Street Could Talk

10. Green Book

Alt: Can You Ever Forgive Me?

 

Director:

 

1. Yorgos Lanthimos, The Favourite

2. Alfonso Cuaron, Roma

3. Bradley Cooper, A Star Is Born

4. Steve McQueen, Widows

5. Spike Lee, BlacKkKlansman

Alt: Adam McKay, Vice

 

Actor:

 

1. Rami Malek, Bohemian Rhapsody

2. Bradley Cooper, A Star Is Born

3. Christian Bale, Vice

4. Viggo Mortensen, Green Book

5. Robert Redford, The Old Man and the Gun

Alt: Ryan Gosling, First Man

 

Actress:

 

1. Lady Gaga, A Star Is Born

2. Olivia Colman, The Favourite

3. Viola Davis, Widows

4. Melissa McCarthy, Can You Ever Forgive Me?

5. Glenn Close, The Wife

Alt: Yalitza Aparicio, Roma

 

Supporting Actor:

 

1. Richard E. Grant, Can You Ever Forgive Me?

2. Daniel Kaluuya, Widows

3. Mahershala Ali, Green Book

4. Sam Rockwell, Vice

5. Adam Driver, BlacKkKlansman

Alt: Sam Elliott, A Star Is Born

 

Supporting Actress:

 

1. Amy Adams, Vice

2. Regina King, If Beale Street Could Talk

3. Rachel Weisz, The Favourite

4. Elizabeth Debicki, Widows

5. Emma Stone, The Favourite

Alt: Natalie Portman, Vox Lux

 

Original Screenplay:

 

1. The Favourite

2. Roma

3. Vice

4. Green Book

5. Mid90s

Alt: A Quiet Place

 

Adapted Screenplay:

 

1. A Star Is Born

2. BlacKkKlansman

3. Widows

4. If Beale Street Could Talk

5. Can You Ever Forgive Me?

Alt: First Man

 

Animated:

 

1. Incredibles 2

2. Isle of Dogs

3. Ralph Breaks the Internet

4. Mirai

5. Early Man

Alt: Smallfoot

 

Cinematography:

 

1. Roma

2. The Favourite

3. First Man

4. Widows

5. A Star Is Born

Alt: If Beale Street Could Talk

 

Editing:

 

1. Widows

2. Roma

3. A Star Is Born

4. The Favourite

5. BlacKkKlansman

Alt: First Man

 

Production Design:

 

1. The Favourite

2. Fantastic Beasts: The Crimes of Grindelwald

3. Mary Poppins Returns

4. Black Panther

5. Bohemian Rhapsody

Alt: First Man

 

Costume Design:

 

1. The Favourite

2. Fantastic Beasts: The Crimes of Grindelwald

3. Mary Poppins Returns

4. Black Panther

5. Mary Queen of Scots

Alt: The Nutcracker and the Four Realms

 

Makeup:

 

1. Vice

2. The Favourite

3. Black Panther

Alt: Mary Queen of Scots

 

Score:

 

1. First Man

2. Black Panther

3. Widows

4. BlacKkKlansman

5. If Beale Street Could Talk

Alt: Mary Poppins Returns

 

Song:

 

1. The Shallow, A Star Is Born

2. All the Stars, Black Panther

3. Mary Poppins Returns

4. Maybe It's Time, A Star Is Born

5. Love Lies, Love, Simon

Alt: Ashes, Deadpool 2

 

Visual Effects:

 

1. Avengers: Infinity War

2. First Man

3. Alita: Battle Angel

4. Solo: A Star Wars Story

5. A Quiet Place

Alt: Black Panther

 

Sound Editing:

 

1. Widows

2. First Man

3. A Quiet Place

4. Black Panther

5. Avengers: Infinity War

Alt: Alita: Battle Angel 

 

Sound Mixing:

 

1. A Star Is Born

2. A Quiet Place

3. Widows

4. First Man

5. Bohemian Rhapsody

Alt: Black Panther

 

 

Nomination counts:

 

11:

The Favourite (Picture, Director, Actress, Supporting Actress x2, Original Screenplay, Cinematography, Editing, Production Design, Costume Design, Makeup)

 

10:

Widows (Picture, Director, Actress, Supporting Actor, Supporting Actress, Cinematography, Editing, Score, Sound Editing, Sound Mixing)

 

9:

A Star Is Born (Picture, Director, Actor, Actress, Adapted Screenplay, Cinematography, Editing, Song x2)

 

7:

Black Panther (Picture, Production Design, Costume Design, Makeup, Score, Song, Sound Editing)

 

6:

BlacKkKlansman (Picture, Director, Supporting Actor, Adapted Screenplay, Editing, Score)

First Man (Picture, Cinematography, Score, Visual Effects, Sound Editing, Sound Mixing)

Roma (Picture, Director, Original Screenplay, Cinematography, Editing, Foreign Film)

Vice (Picture, Actor, Supporting Actor, Supporting Actress, Original Screenplay, Makeup)

 

4:

Green Book (Picture, Actor, Supporting Actor, Original Screenplay)

If Beale Street Could Talk (Picture, Supporting Actress, Adapted Screenplay, Score)

 

3:

Bohemian Rhapsody (Actor, Production Design, Sound Mixing)
Can You Ever Forgive Me? (Actress, Supporting Actor, Adapted Screenplay)

Mary Poppins Returns (Production Design, Costume Design, Song)

A Quiet Place (Visual Effects, Sound Editing, Sound Mixing)

 

2:

Avengers: Infinity War (Visual Effects, Sound Editing)

Fantastic Beasts: The Crimes of Grindelwald (Production Design, Costume Design)

[filmlover]

Green Book is looking likely to be a major player depending on how it does at the box office (which will be interesting to see considering it's opening on a very crowded Thanksgiving frame).