Eric Atreides Posted September 17, 2018 Share Posted September 17, 2018 1. The Favourite 2. Roma 3. A Star is Born 4. Vice 5. First Man 6. BlacKkKlansman 7. Widows 8. If Beale Street Could Talk 9. Green Book ALT: Black Panther Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SLAM! Posted September 20, 2018 Share Posted September 20, 2018 I've had a thought. For Original Screenplay, four locked nominees are in the process of being solidified: The Favourite, Roma, Green Book, and Vice. That leaves one more spot up for grabs, and with nothing else to really achieve this season, A24 will want to make a leap for that wildcard spot. But I don't think the A24 film with the best chance would be Eighth Grade. I think it would be First Reformed. First Reformed was written and directed by Paul Schrader. He's the guy that wrote Taxi Driver and Raging Bull... but he was never nominated for either of those scripts. The Academy loves to right past wrongs, and this would be a great chance to do it. The screenplay for First Reformed is a highly intellectual one, and based on what I've read about the film, it's a very tense, dramatic, and surprising one. I wholeheartedly believe that the film is a great candidate for Original Screenplay, and I think A24 knows that, too. We'll have to see how early critic-backed precursors go before the chance is solidified, but I definitely wouldn't count out the film's chance. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
filmlover Posted September 20, 2018 Share Posted September 20, 2018 6 hours ago, Slambros said: I've had a thought. For Original Screenplay, four locked nominees are in the process of being solidified: The Favourite, Roma, Green Book, and Vice. That leaves one more spot up for grabs, and with nothing else to really achieve this season, A24 will want to make a leap for that wildcard spot. But I don't think the A24 film with the best chance would be Eighth Grade. I think it would be First Reformed. First Reformed was written and directed by Paul Schrader. He's the guy that wrote Taxi Driver and Raging Bull... but he was never nominated for either of those scripts. The Academy loves to right past wrongs, and this would be a great chance to do it. The screenplay for First Reformed is a highly intellectual one, and based on what I've read about the film, it's a very tense, dramatic, and surprising one. I wholeheartedly believe that the film is a great candidate for Original Screenplay, and I think A24 knows that, too. We'll have to see how early critic-backed precursors go before the chance is solidified, but I definitely wouldn't count out the film's chance. I could see A24 being a no show at the Oscars this year to be honest. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Cap Posted September 20, 2018 Share Posted September 20, 2018 I'm not quite as sold as most of you on Roma. I think the Netflix baggage will hold it back. Where is the overhype of The Favorite coming from? It got good reviews from the festivals, and the trailer looks like a hoot, but yeah, sure. The floor for Black Panther is 3 Nominations / 2 Wins. It's NOT losing Costumes and HMU. C'mon, guys. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoolioD1 Posted September 20, 2018 Share Posted September 20, 2018 the favourite is probably winning costumes i think. i buy vice as the make-up frontrunner as well if the transformations are good that's the kind of make up they like. 2 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
The Panda Posted September 20, 2018 Share Posted September 20, 2018 (edited) 19 minutes ago, captainwondyful said: I'm not quite as sold as most of you on Roma. I think the Netflix baggage will hold it back. Where is the overhype of The Favorite coming from? It got good reviews from the festivals, and the trailer looks like a hoot, but yeah, sure. The floor for Black Panther is 3 Nominations / 2 Wins. It's NOT losing Costumes and HMU. C'mon, guys. Have you seen Vice’s makeup design from some of the production shots? Pretty transformative. I think costume is a for sure nod for BP, but the Academy goes with traditional stuff like the Favourite all the time. Roma’s also not a typical Netflix pick. It’s done by an Academy darling and being heralded as his best picture (while also being empowering toward women and Latinx). Black Panther has a great shot at having the strongest Comic Book showing of any comic book movie, but it’s still a comic book movie. It’s definitely not locked to win anything (the only thing I’d even consider maybe locked to win something rn is probably Roma in Foreign Picture) Edited September 20, 2018 by PANDA 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Cap Posted September 20, 2018 Share Posted September 20, 2018 2 minutes ago, PANDA said: It’s done by an Academy darling and being heralded as his best picture (while also being empowering toward women and Latinx). STILL Netflix. You could make the same argument for Mudbound and that didn't get a Best Pic Nom, despite it being a better film than half the films last year which did. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoolioD1 Posted September 20, 2018 Share Posted September 20, 2018 2 minutes ago, captainwondyful said: You could make the same argument for Mudbound you could make the argument that mudbound was directed by an academy darling and was empowering for latinx? 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Cap Posted September 20, 2018 Share Posted September 20, 2018 6 minutes ago, CoolioD1 said: you could make the argument that mudbound was directed by an academy darling and was empowering for latinx? Touche. I meant that Mudbound was also a film with topical themes, directed by a black, queer women, and it still wasn't couldn't get over the final hurdle. It was still seen as a streaming film. Same a Roma. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoolioD1 Posted September 20, 2018 Share Posted September 20, 2018 I just don't think Mudbound was buzzed about on the same level. And this is still a film from an A-list auteur, whose last film won seven oscars, that people are saying Is his masterpiece. Netflix have never had something on that level before. 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
The Panda Posted September 20, 2018 Share Posted September 20, 2018 2 hours ago, captainwondyful said: STILL Netflix. You could make the same argument for Mudbound and that didn't get a Best Pic Nom, despite it being a better film than half the films last year which did. Mudbound wasn’t being hyped up by critics nearly as much, and it wasn’t nearly as high profile of a director as Cuaron. Mudbound is more of an example of why Netflix can get nominated, as Mudbound broke through and got nods when people were skeptical 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
aabattery Posted September 20, 2018 Share Posted September 20, 2018 Yeah, I still don't buy the Netflix baggage thing. Their percieved lack of success is mainly cause... most of their movies haven't been that good. Mudbound did well enough for itself, so I'd be surprised if something as buzzy as Roma doesn't break through. 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MrPink Posted September 20, 2018 Share Posted September 20, 2018 (edited) I think the Netflix baggage could prevent it from winning but it'll be a big contender all year, I'm sure. Mudbound didn't have the same kind of buzz not to mention it debuted at Sundance, so it lost some of its luster by the time Awards Season came around, despite its release later on. It might have even nabbed more nominations than I expected. 4 was not a bad haul for it. Edited September 20, 2018 by MrPink 2 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
The Panda Posted September 21, 2018 Share Posted September 21, 2018 Yeah the only other Netflix film that had any awards potential, besides Mudbound, was Beasts of No Nation which didn’t have much buzz outside of Elba. People mistook Beasts of No Nation flopping awards wise with a Netflix curse or something. Hard to say Netflix has baggage when they haven’t had a real contending level movie until Roma, Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoolioD1 Posted September 21, 2018 Share Posted September 21, 2018 my predictions main categories post the sept fests: Picture: 1. A Star is Born 2. The Favourite 3. Roma 4. First Man 5. Blackkklansman 6. If Beale Street Could Talk 7. Green Book 8. Vice 9. Widows 10. Black Panther Director: 1. Bradley Cooper, A Star is Born 2. Alfonso Cuaron, Roma 3. Yorgos Lanthimos, The Favourite 4. Spike Lee, Blackkklansman 5. Barry Jenkins, If Beale Street Could Talk Actor: 1. Bradley Cooper, A Star is Born 2. Christian Bale, Vice 3. Ryan Gosling, First Man 4. Viggo Mortensen, Green Book 5. Robert Redford, The Old Man and the Gun Actress: 1. Lady Gaga, A Star is Born 2. Olivia Colman, The Favourite 3. Glenn Close, The Wife 4. Viola Davis, Widows 5. Emily Blunt, Mary Poppins Returns Supp. Actor: 1. Mahershala Ali, Green Book 2. Richard E. Grant, Can You Ever Forgive Me? 3. Daniel Kaluuya, Widows 4. Sam Elliott, A Star is Born 5. Michael B. Jordan, Black Panther Supp. Actress: 1. Amy Adams, Vice 2. Regina King, If Beale Street Could Talk 3. Emma Stone, The Favourite 4. Rachel Weisz, The Favourite 5. Elizabeth Debicki, Widows O. Screenplay: 1. The Favourite 2. Roma 3. Vice 4. Green Book 5. Eighth Grade A. Screenplay: 1. Blackkklansman 2. If Beale Street Could Talk 3. A Star is Born 4. Widows 5. First Man 1 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
aabattery Posted September 21, 2018 Share Posted September 21, 2018 5 hours ago, CoolioD1 said: my predictions main categories post the sept fests: Picture: 1. A Star is Born 2. The Favourite 3. Roma 4. First Man 5. Blackkklansman 6. If Beale Street Could Talk 7. Green Book 8. Vice 9. Widows 10. Black Panther Director: 1. Bradley Cooper, A Star is Born 2. Alfonso Cuaron, Roma 3. Yorgos Lanthimos, The Favourite 4. Spike Lee, Blackkklansman 5. Barry Jenkins, If Beale Street Could Talk Actor: 1. Bradley Cooper, A Star is Born 2. Christian Bale, Vice 3. Ryan Gosling, First Man 4. Viggo Mortensen, Green Book 5. Robert Redford, The Old Man and the Gun Actress: 1. Lady Gaga, A Star is Born 2. Olivia Colman, The Favourite 3. Glenn Close, The Wife 4. Viola Davis, Widows 5. Emily Blunt, Mary Poppins Returns Supp. Actor: 1. Mahershala Ali, Green Book 2. Richard E. Grant, Can You Ever Forgive Me? 3. Daniel Kaluuya, Widows 4. Sam Elliott, A Star is Born 5. Michael B. Jordan, Black Panther Supp. Actress: 1. Amy Adams, Vice 2. Regina King, If Beale Street Could Talk 3. Emma Stone, The Favourite 4. Rachel Weisz, The Favourite 5. Elizabeth Debicki, Widows O. Screenplay: 1. The Favourite 2. Roma 3. Vice 4. Green Book 5. Eighth Grade A. Screenplay: 1. Blackkklansman 2. If Beale Street Could Talk 3. A Star is Born 4. Widows 5. First Man Moment of mourning for Ad Astra. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoolioD1 Posted September 21, 2018 Share Posted September 21, 2018 i already said the last time i'm gonna wait and see w/ ad astra goddamn. even if it's delayed i'm gonna be making predictions in january and people are gonna be like "damn coolio you dropped ad astra?" 3 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
4815162342 Posted September 21, 2018 Share Posted September 21, 2018 At this point dropping Ad Astra in 2018 would be unfair to all the quaint little festival darlings and their hopes. 3 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoolioD1 Posted September 21, 2018 Share Posted September 21, 2018 13 minutes ago, 4815162342 said: At this point dropping Ad Astra in 2018 would be unfair to all the quaint little festival darlings and their hopes. i hear they're waiting for the academy to bring the popular film oscar back so that Ad Astra can win both. 1 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
titanic2187 Posted September 22, 2018 Share Posted September 22, 2018 On 9/20/2018 at 11:34 PM, captainwondyful said: I'm not quite as sold as most of you on Roma. I think the Netflix baggage will hold it back. Where is the overhype of The Favorite coming from? It got good reviews from the festivals, and the trailer looks like a hoot, but yeah, sure. The floor for Black Panther is 3 Nominations / 2 Wins. It's NOT losing Costumes and HMU. C'mon, guys. If Netfix willing to give up their toxic day-to date release strategy(at least for Roma), I think Academy will be very welcoming the movie 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...