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Best Picture Predictions - 2018

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I've had a thought.

 

For Original Screenplay, four locked nominees are in the process of being solidified: The Favourite, Roma, Green Book, and Vice. That leaves one more spot up for grabs, and with nothing else to really achieve this season, A24 will want to make a leap for that wildcard spot.

 

But I don't think the A24 film with the best chance would be Eighth Grade. I think it would be First Reformed.

 

First Reformed was written and directed by Paul Schrader. He's the guy that wrote Taxi Driver and Raging Bull... but he was never nominated for either of those scripts.

 

The Academy loves to right past wrongs, and this would be a great chance to do it. The screenplay for First Reformed is a highly intellectual one, and based on what I've read about the film, it's a very tense, dramatic, and surprising one. I wholeheartedly believe that the film is a great candidate for Original Screenplay, and I think A24 knows that, too.

 

We'll have to see how early critic-backed precursors go before the chance is solidified, but I definitely wouldn't count out the film's chance.

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6 hours ago, Slambros said:

I've had a thought.

 

For Original Screenplay, four locked nominees are in the process of being solidified: The Favourite, Roma, Green Book, and Vice. That leaves one more spot up for grabs, and with nothing else to really achieve this season, A24 will want to make a leap for that wildcard spot.

 

But I don't think the A24 film with the best chance would be Eighth Grade. I think it would be First Reformed.

 

First Reformed was written and directed by Paul Schrader. He's the guy that wrote Taxi Driver and Raging Bull... but he was never nominated for either of those scripts.

 

The Academy loves to right past wrongs, and this would be a great chance to do it. The screenplay for First Reformed is a highly intellectual one, and based on what I've read about the film, it's a very tense, dramatic, and surprising one. I wholeheartedly believe that the film is a great candidate for Original Screenplay, and I think A24 knows that, too.

 

We'll have to see how early critic-backed precursors go before the chance is solidified, but I definitely wouldn't count out the film's chance.

I could see A24 being a no show at the Oscars this year to be honest.

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  • I'm not quite as sold as most of you on Roma.  I think the Netflix baggage will hold it back.
  • Where is the overhype of The Favorite coming from?  It got good reviews from the festivals, and the trailer looks like a hoot, but yeah, sure.
  • The floor for Black Panther is 3 Nominations / 2 Wins.  It's NOT losing Costumes and HMU.  C'mon, guys.
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19 minutes ago, captainwondyful said:
  • I'm not quite as sold as most of you on Roma.  I think the Netflix baggage will hold it back.
  • Where is the overhype of The Favorite coming from?  It got good reviews from the festivals, and the trailer looks like a hoot, but yeah, sure.
  • The floor for Black Panther is 3 Nominations / 2 Wins.  It's NOT losing Costumes and HMU.  C'mon, guys.

Have you seen Vice’s makeup design from some of the production shots?  Pretty transformative.

 

I think costume is a for sure nod for BP, but the Academy goes with traditional stuff like the Favourite all the time.

 

Roma’s also not a typical Netflix pick.  It’s done by an Academy darling and being heralded as his best picture (while also being empowering toward women and Latinx).

 

Black Panther has a great shot at having the strongest Comic Book showing of any comic book movie, but it’s still a comic book movie.  It’s definitely not locked to win anything (the only thing I’d even consider maybe locked to win something rn is probably Roma in Foreign Picture)

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2 minutes ago, PANDA said:

It’s done by an Academy darling and being heralded as his best picture (while also being empowering toward women and Latinx).

STILL Netflix.  You could make the same argument for Mudbound and that didn't get a Best Pic Nom, despite it being a better film than half the films last year which did. 

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6 minutes ago, CoolioD1 said:

you could make the argument that mudbound was directed by an academy darling and was empowering for latinx?

Touche.

 

I meant that Mudbound was also a film with topical themes, directed by a black, queer women, and it still wasn't couldn't get over the final hurdle.  It was still seen as a streaming film. Same a Roma.

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2 hours ago, captainwondyful said:

 

STILL Netflix.  You could make the same argument for Mudbound and that didn't get a Best Pic Nom, despite it being a better film than half the films last year which did. 

Mudbound wasn’t being hyped up by critics nearly as much, and it wasn’t nearly as high profile of a director as Cuaron.

 

Mudbound is more of an example of why Netflix can get nominated, as Mudbound broke through and got nods when people were skeptical

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Yeah, I still don't buy the Netflix baggage thing. Their percieved lack of success is mainly cause... most of their movies haven't been that good. Mudbound did well enough for itself, so I'd be surprised if something as buzzy as Roma doesn't break through. 

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I think the Netflix baggage could prevent it from winning but it'll be a big contender all year, I'm sure.

 

Mudbound didn't have the same kind of buzz not to mention it debuted at Sundance, so it lost some of its luster by the time Awards Season came around, despite its release later on. It might have even nabbed more nominations than I expected. 4 was not a bad haul for it.

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Yeah the only other Netflix film that had any awards potential, besides Mudbound, was Beasts of No Nation which didn’t have much buzz outside of Elba.

 

People mistook Beasts of No Nation flopping awards wise with a Netflix curse or something.  Hard to say Netflix has baggage when they haven’t had a real contending level movie until Roma,

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my predictions main categories post the sept fests:

 

Picture:

1. A Star is Born

2. The Favourite

3. Roma

4. First Man

5. Blackkklansman

6. If Beale Street Could Talk

7. Green Book

8. Vice

9. Widows

10. Black Panther

 

Director:

1. Bradley Cooper, A Star is Born

2. Alfonso Cuaron, Roma

3. Yorgos Lanthimos, The Favourite

4. Spike Lee, Blackkklansman

5. Barry Jenkins, If Beale Street Could Talk

 

Actor:

1. Bradley Cooper, A Star is Born

2. Christian Bale, Vice

3. Ryan Gosling, First Man

4. Viggo Mortensen, Green Book

5. Robert Redford, The Old Man and the Gun

 

Actress:

1. Lady Gaga, A Star is Born

2. Olivia Colman, The Favourite

3. Glenn Close, The Wife

4. Viola Davis, Widows

5. Emily Blunt, Mary Poppins Returns

 

Supp. Actor:

1. Mahershala Ali, Green Book

2. Richard E. Grant, Can You Ever Forgive Me?

3. Daniel Kaluuya, Widows

4. Sam Elliott, A Star is Born

5. Michael B. Jordan, Black Panther

 

Supp. Actress:

1. Amy Adams, Vice

2. Regina King, If Beale Street Could Talk

3. Emma Stone, The Favourite

4. Rachel Weisz, The Favourite

5. Elizabeth Debicki, Widows

 

O. Screenplay:

1. The Favourite

2. Roma

3. Vice

4. Green Book

5. Eighth Grade

 

A. Screenplay: 

1. Blackkklansman

2. If Beale Street Could Talk

3. A Star is Born

4. Widows

5. First Man

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5 hours ago, CoolioD1 said:

my predictions main categories post the sept fests:

 

Picture:

1. A Star is Born

2. The Favourite

3. Roma

4. First Man

5. Blackkklansman

6. If Beale Street Could Talk

7. Green Book

8. Vice

9. Widows

10. Black Panther

 

Director:

1. Bradley Cooper, A Star is Born

2. Alfonso Cuaron, Roma

3. Yorgos Lanthimos, The Favourite

4. Spike Lee, Blackkklansman

5. Barry Jenkins, If Beale Street Could Talk

 

Actor:

1. Bradley Cooper, A Star is Born

2. Christian Bale, Vice

3. Ryan Gosling, First Man

4. Viggo Mortensen, Green Book

5. Robert Redford, The Old Man and the Gun

 

Actress:

1. Lady Gaga, A Star is Born

2. Olivia Colman, The Favourite

3. Glenn Close, The Wife

4. Viola Davis, Widows

5. Emily Blunt, Mary Poppins Returns

 

Supp. Actor:

1. Mahershala Ali, Green Book

2. Richard E. Grant, Can You Ever Forgive Me?

3. Daniel Kaluuya, Widows

4. Sam Elliott, A Star is Born

5. Michael B. Jordan, Black Panther

 

Supp. Actress:

1. Amy Adams, Vice

2. Regina King, If Beale Street Could Talk

3. Emma Stone, The Favourite

4. Rachel Weisz, The Favourite

5. Elizabeth Debicki, Widows

 

O. Screenplay:

1. The Favourite

2. Roma

3. Vice

4. Green Book

5. Eighth Grade

 

A. Screenplay: 

1. Blackkklansman

2. If Beale Street Could Talk

3. A Star is Born

4. Widows

5. First Man

 

Moment of mourning for Ad Astra.

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13 minutes ago, 4815162342 said:

At this point dropping Ad Astra in 2018 would be unfair to all the quaint little festival darlings and their hopes.

i hear they're waiting for the academy to bring the popular film oscar back so that Ad Astra can win both.

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On 9/20/2018 at 11:34 PM, captainwondyful said:
  • I'm not quite as sold as most of you on Roma.  I think the Netflix baggage will hold it back.
  • Where is the overhype of The Favorite coming from?  It got good reviews from the festivals, and the trailer looks like a hoot, but yeah, sure.
  • The floor for Black Panther is 3 Nominations / 2 Wins.  It's NOT losing Costumes and HMU.  C'mon, guys.

If Netfix willing to give up their toxic day-to date release strategy(at least for Roma), I think Academy will be very welcoming the movie 

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