Joel M Posted September 22, 2018 Share Posted September 22, 2018 2 hours ago, titanic2187 said: If Netfix willing to give up their toxic day-to date release strategy(at least for Roma), I think Academy will be very welcoming the movie Yeah this is what it'll come down to. If Roma has the same release pattern as every other Netflix movie, it might win a bunch of oscars like foreign or cinematography or even a second one for Cuaron but it ain't winning Best Picture. If Netflix makes an exception and gives it a 1-2 month theatrical only window there will be no baggage at all. 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
titanic2187 Posted September 22, 2018 Share Posted September 22, 2018 2 hours ago, Joel M said: Yeah this is what it'll come down to. If Roma has the same release pattern as every other Netflix movie, it might win a bunch of oscars like foreign or cinematography or even a second one for Cuaron but it ain't winning Best Picture. If Netflix makes an exception and gives it a 1-2 month theatrical only window there will be no baggage at all. If Netflix insists their release strategy, Roma could even get snubbed to almost empty handed, critically acclaimed doesn't mean oscar, just look at The Florida Project last year, and don't forget Roma is in Spanish. It is vulnerable than it looked 2 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
filmlover Posted September 22, 2018 Share Posted September 22, 2018 51 minutes ago, titanic2187 said: If Netflix insists their release strategy, Roma could even get snubbed to almost empty handed, critically acclaimed doesn't mean oscar, just look at The Florida Project last year, and don't forget Roma is in Spanish. It is vulnerable than it looked This is a bigger deal than The Florida Project (which also got pushed to the side because Lady Bird became A24's main focus) was though. 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
titanic2187 Posted September 22, 2018 Share Posted September 22, 2018 28 minutes ago, filmlover said: This is a bigger deal than The Florida Project (which also got pushed to the side because Lady Bird became A24's main focus) was though. It doesn't become a bigger deal when it is in Spanish, foreign-language film have poor tracking at Oscar despite the expansion of Best Picture field, only Amour made the cut in 2012, and since then, nothing else with one-two strike from Marion Cortillard and Isabelle Huppert in lead actress. Before the expansion, let's talk about 2000s, two non-english film enter the final top 5, 3 if you included Babel, and with multiple of them scored in major category like Best Director and Best Screenplay, like Amelie, Talk to Her, City of God, Pan's labyrinth, La Vien Rose, Diving Bell and the Butterfly...... The hot streak just stopped right after the expansion of BP field, even in screenplay category, which known to be very open to foreign-language script, and I doubt Roma's buzz is as strong as it appear to be, Alfonso is the sole-magnet for Roma, and the acclaim among critics. All of the other factors are against its odd. 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Eric Duncan Posted September 23, 2018 Share Posted September 23, 2018 @CoolioD1 It got Annihilation'd. Only this time something from Fox will actually get nominated this year. 1 5 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WrathOfHan Posted October 4, 2018 Share Posted October 4, 2018 So we can generally agree the top 10 is this right now: BlacKkKlansman Black Panther The Favourite First Man Green Book If Beale Street Could Talk Roma A Star Is Born Vice Widows The only other movies that stand a semi decent chance at showing up imo are Bohemian Rhapsody, Can You Ever Forgive Me, Eighth Grade, and Boy Erased 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
KeepItU25071906 Posted October 4, 2018 Share Posted October 4, 2018 3 minutes ago, WrathOfHan said: So we can generally agree the top 10 is this right now: I think it's gonna be 9 pictures max. Or even 8. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
The Panda Posted October 5, 2018 Share Posted October 5, 2018 20 hours ago, WrathOfHan said: So we can generally agree the top 10 is this right now: BlacKkKlansman Black Panther The Favourite First Man Green Book If Beale Street Could Talk Roma A Star Is Born Vice Widows The only other movies that stand a semi decent chance at showing up imo are Bohemian Rhapsody, Can You Ever Forgive Me, Eighth Grade, and Boy Erased I think The Hate U Give has a decent chance of showing up too, depending on how Fox pushes it Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
filmlover Posted October 5, 2018 Share Posted October 5, 2018 (edited) Yeah, if The Hate U Give breaks out at the box office (fingers crossed it does really well) it stands an outside chance. Might even be Fox's #2 push (behind Widows) over Bohemian Rhapsody too with 96% on RT and 83 on MC. Edited October 5, 2018 by filmlover Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
stripe Posted October 5, 2018 Share Posted October 5, 2018 Vice still unseen, so I wouldn't put it in a top10. Besides this, I agree with the other 9 movies. And I would add The Hate u Give to the mix. The strongest candidates: A Star is Born - It has many things on its side. it's in Favourite - raves and showy for acting branch Black Panther - cultural phenomenon First Man - Strong not stellar reviews, but Oscar loves biopics, American heroes, space, technical achievement, and the names involved behind and in front of camera Really solid chances: If Beale Street Could Talk - Glowing reviews + timely + respected talent Roma - it would be in the upper group of candidates if it weren't for Netflix distribution. Are AMPAS members ready to embrace this kind of comercial strategy? Unsure about that. Green Book - People's choice prize in Toronto is a really good indicator. Plus, two great actors considered. Blackkkansman - succesful BO hit. Diversity helps. Also, Spike Lee returning. In the fight: Widows - strong reception, cast and auteur. But it's likely to see it succeeding as a serious thriller for audiences more than getting prizes. Just like The Town, Gone Girl, Heat or Girl with Dragon tatoo. Hate U Give - huge attention with great reviews. Theme will help. Too many movies aiming for the diversity factor. Needs a succesful run to be in the conversation once January arrives. Can You Ever Forgive Me? - another indie with great reviews so far. Too little? Acting and script could be the best categories to bet for this. Needs to be a hit. Unseen possible spoilers: Welcome to Marwen - It's Zemeckis + Steve Carrel. If it's succesful with audiences, it will benefit from freshness once AMPAS decide. Vice - Many things on paper going for it. But will it survive to the hype? Mary Poppins Returns - Only if it manages to be loved by both audiences and critics. There might be too many popular movies fighting for room at this moment. The Mule - surprising late addition. It's Eastwood. In December. With strong cast. Longshot seen movies: Boy Erased Eighth Grade A quiet place Beautiful boy Crazy Rich Asians At Eternity Gate Destroyer Longshot unseen movies: Mary Queen of Scots On the basis of sex Bohemian Rhapsody 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
stripe Posted October 5, 2018 Share Posted October 5, 2018 (edited) So, if I had to guess today, I would bet 9 noms: Star is Born, Favourite, Black Panther, First Man, Beale Street, Roma, Green Book, Hate U Give (over Blackkkansman, because its more recent, reviews are far better and will steal all the air left for diversity! factor), and a December movie. From December, I have a feeling it will be Marwen or Mule. That would be a great line up that would kill the wrong arguments that Oscars don't like popular films. The overall gross of this nominees would be far over 1 billion DOM Edited October 5, 2018 by stripe 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ezen Baklattan Posted October 6, 2018 Author Share Posted October 6, 2018 On 3/15/2018 at 7:20 PM, Spagheditary said: Thoughts on Life Itself? Fogelman can be hit or miss, and the trailer looks a bit generic. The September release doesn’t help either. However, This Is Us is definitely winning over a lot of people, and if he can deliver something on that caliber or higher, it may be a potential player. .....live and learn? 4 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
filmlover Posted October 6, 2018 Share Posted October 6, 2018 10 hours ago, stripe said: So, if I had to guess today, I would bet 9 noms: Star is Born, Favourite, Black Panther, First Man, Beale Street, Roma, Green Book, Hate U Give (over Blackkkansman, because its more recent, reviews are far better and will steal all the air left for diversity! factor), and a December movie. Vice. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Webslinger Posted October 6, 2018 Share Posted October 6, 2018 (edited) I saw A Star Is Born earlier tonight. I don't want to overhype it or jump the gun, but I think it could be in the conversation for the win. It has the fame/showbiz angle working for it and it straight-up walloped the mostly older audience I saw it with. Edited October 6, 2018 by Webslinger 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
The Panda Posted October 7, 2018 Share Posted October 7, 2018 (edited) After seeing A Star is Born I’m conceding to @WrathOfHan, I think it’s winning. Cooper is winning best actor and best director, Gaga is winning actress. This will sweep up most of the oscars it’ll be nominated for. Edited October 7, 2018 by PANDA Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ezen Baklattan Posted October 7, 2018 Author Share Posted October 7, 2018 I can see Star is Born easily for... Picture Director Actor Actress Adapted Screenplay Editing Cinematography Song x2 Sound Mixing Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
filmlover Posted October 7, 2018 Share Posted October 7, 2018 After seeing the movie, I think that unless Bale gives a performance so undeniable that they have to give him a second Oscar, Cooper is winning Best Actor. Dude's gonna be campaigning his ass off throughout awards season. Plus, it's gonna be his fourth acting nomination in seven years. Gaga will certainly be nominated, but winning I'm not completely sure about. If Close nabs her seventh nomination and Gaga ends up being her main competition, I wouldn't be surprised if she ends up Julianne Moore-ing her way to a victory as the lone nomination for her movie due to everyone deciding "it's time." Plus, she's incredibly good in The Wife. The movie itself is only decent, but her performance definitely sticks with you. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MovieMan89 Posted October 7, 2018 Share Posted October 7, 2018 (edited) With ASIB looking to be a legitimate blockbuster grosser and Disney pushing BP for Picture not popular, the ironic thing is that popular category may end up looking like an even dumber move than it already seemed. Will be even more of an epic fail if ASIB actually wins like it sounds like it could have at least a shot at. Edited October 7, 2018 by MovieMan89 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Eric Duncan Posted October 7, 2018 Share Posted October 7, 2018 2 hours ago, Spagheditary said: I can see Star is Born easily for... Picture Director Actor Actress Adapted Screenplay Editing Cinematography Song x2 Sound Mixing I can also see Sam Elliott riding the film on its coattails and finding a way to a nomination. He's not in the movie for long, but he's easily gotten the most to chew on when it comes to the supporting cast, and with this film expecting to sweep so many categories already, he could join in too. Also helps that Supporting Actor's a pretty barren slate this year. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
The Panda Posted October 7, 2018 Share Posted October 7, 2018 6 minutes ago, CoolEric258 said: I can also see Sam Elliott riding the film on its coattails and finding a way to a nomination. He's not in the movie for long, but he's easily gotten the most to chew on when it comes to the supporting cast, and with this film expecting to sweep so many categories already, he could join in too. Also helps that Supporting Actor's a pretty barren slate this year. Elliot’s great in the movie, with a weak supporting field I think he’s a shoe in Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
