Best Picture Predictions - 2018

[CoolioD1]

7 minutes ago, Spagspiria said:

Does MPR still have a chance at a mom? People were kind of assuming it would be more of a critical and financial sensation then it was.

 

Still think Blunt is in, but not sure if Picture is as likely now.

i don't think so anymore. blunt nomination, costumes, production design, music, visual effects is probably the cap. i wouldn't be surprised if they ignore the songs since so many people are calling them forgettable but one should get in i guess. if original songs for Nine and Chicago could get nominated they should be able to get one.

Edited December 23, 2018 by CoolioD1

[Valonqar]

I think that MPR never had an actual shot at Picture. Blunt has always been their biggest bet considering that Disney is putting all Picture efforts in BP. Pushing Blunt for Actress does not clash with their BP campaigning since it has no Actress candidate. 

[CoolioD1]

i'm definitely off the blunt winning train . she's probably fifth if anything. if there's a surprise nod in that category she'll for sure be the one to lose out.

[SLAM!]

3 minutes ago, CoolioD1 said:

i don't think so anymore. blunt nomination, costumes, production design, music, visual effects is probably the cap. i wouldn't be surprised if they ignore the songs since so many people are calling them forgettable but one should get in i guess. if original songs for Nine and Chicago could get nominated they should be able to get one.

 

Counter-point:

 

Chicago and Nine got Song nominations in years where there was no 15-song shortlist... I think the shortlist has streamlined the voters' focus, so that if they want to fairly deliberate which of the songs are actually deserving of the nomination, they can very feasibly understand and ignore the songs that they deem to be lackluster. So now, something like "Keep Reachin'" is less like a diamond in the rough and more like a musicianship crysanthemum on the same shelf as clay pots. Quality choices like "The Empty Chair" from two years ago are much more visible now.

[CoolioD1]

a shortlist might help mary poppins if anything. if they still do those screenings where they watch the scene in the movie that the songs take place in... i think poppins, ASIB, buster scruggs and wreck-it ralph are the only movies where the songs aren't just playing over the end credits. so that'll maybe help them stand out more than they would have.

[SLAM!]

5 minutes ago, CoolioD1 said:

a shortlist might help mary poppins if anything. if they still do those screenings where they watch the scene in the movie that the songs take place in... i think poppins, ASIB, buster scruggs and wreck-it ralph are the only movies where the songs aren't just playing over the end credits. so that'll maybe help them stand out more than they would have.

 

That's a really good point. I think it depends on what the Academy is looking for, but if they're looking for songs that are directly utilized in their films, then yeah, those songs have a leg up. Either way, I'm really excited to see which direction the voters take.

[The Panda]

I reckon Poppins still gets in for Song, production and costume, VFX and Blunt.  Picture is a probably not but hey Bohemian Rhapsody is also getting traction.

[WrathOfHan]

I never really felt good about Poppins' BP chances when critics started tweeting their reactions. The good but not great reviews+good but not great box office have all but killed its chances of a nomination. #7-10 are between Beale Street, Vice, Rhapsody, A Quiet Place, and Eighth Grade.

[WrathOfHan]

btw, ASIB is the default frontrunner right now, but there's a good chance it loses both Director and Screenplay. That doesn't happen often with BP winners:

 

Chicago (2002)

Gladiator (2000) (Didn't even have a Screenplay nom)

All the King's Men (1949)

Hamlet (1948) (Also no Screenplay nom)

Rebecca (1940)

The Great Ziegfeld (1936)

Mutiny on the Bounty (1935)

Grand Hotel (1932) (No other noms of course)

The Broadway Melody (1930) (No Screenplay nom)

Wings (1928) (No Director or Writing noms)

 

This isn't exactly encouraging when most of these outliers happened over 70 years ago, but it might not matter this year. The only modern examples were both box office hits like ASIB, and the alternatives don't feel strong right now.

[Webslinger]

A Star Is Born is still #1 on my personal list, which should be more than enough to take it out of the running for a Best Picture win.  My personal favorite hasn't won the big one since The Departed eked out a victory 12 years ago (save for the two minutes where La La Land supposedly won two years ago).

[titanic2187]

9 hours ago, WrathOfHan said:

btw, ASIB is the default frontrunner right now, but there's a good chance it loses both Director and Screenplay. That doesn't happen often with BP winners:

 

Chicago (2002)

Gladiator (2000) (Didn't even have a Screenplay nom)

All the King's Men (1949)

Hamlet (1948) (Also no Screenplay nom)

Rebecca (1940)

The Great Ziegfeld (1936)

Mutiny on the Bounty (1935)

Grand Hotel (1932) (No other noms of course)

The Broadway Melody (1930) (No Screenplay nom)

Wings (1928) (No Director or Writing noms)

 

This isn't exactly encouraging when most of these outliers happened over 70 years ago, but it might not matter this year. The only modern examples were both box office hits like ASIB, and the alternatives don't feel strong right now.

Actually it has......But lost to Gosford Park.

 

 

 

 

[filmlover]

Haven’t seen Beale Street yet (it opens here next weekend) but after seeing Vice, I’m really having a hard time seeing Adams winning even with King missing SAG. She’s great with what she’s given, but it’s gonna definitely be one of the most “this is what he/she finally won for?” wins in the last several years if she does.

[The Panda]

On 12/29/2018 at 10:14 PM, filmlover said:

Haven’t seen Beale Street yet (it opens here next weekend) but after seeing Vice, I’m really having a hard time seeing Adams winning even with King missing SAG. She’s great with what she’s given, but it’s gonna definitely be one of the most “this is what he/she finally won for?” wins in the last several years if she does.

Adams winning over King would be one of their worst takes in years, and that’s including the Boss Baby nomination.

[WrathOfHan]

PGA predictions before noms are announced Friday:

 

1. A Star Is Born

2. Black Panther

3. Bohemian Rhapsody

4. Roma

5. BlacKkKlansman

6. A Quiet Place

7. The Favourite

8. Green Book

9. Eighth Grade

10. Vice

-----------------

11. If Beale Street Could Talk

12. Mary Poppins Returns

 

1-6 are all pretty much locked for box office, pedigree, or both. The Favourite and Green Book are extremely likely too, but if any of those eight are snubbed, it'll be them. Eighth Grade has the Rudin benefit, and I think one Annapurna movie will make it in. Given how much money Annapurna sinked into Vice, I'm leaning towards that atm. MPR could happen but eh.

 

[The Panda]

No clue why Annapurna is pushing Vice more than Beale Street.  Beale Street is easily their winner of those two on all accounts except Actor.

Edited January 3, 2019 by The Panda

[filmlover]

I’m fully expecting Crazy Rich Asians to make PGA tbh. 

[stripe]

7 hours ago, filmlover said:

I’m fully expecting Crazy Rich Asians to make PGA tbh. 

 

I think it's either Crazy Rich Asians or A Quiet Place.

 

There are 6 strong candidates: A Star is Born, Roma, Black Panther, Favourite, Green Book, Blakkkansman.

 

Then 2 more from between these 4: A Quiet Place, MPR, CRA and Bohemian Rhapsody.

 

And other 2 from these 4: Vice, Eighth grade, If Beale Street, and First Man (be careful with that one! I have an increasing feel it's going to make a surprising surge due to the lack of passion for Vice).

[SLAM!]

17 hours ago, The Panda said:

No clue why Annapurna is pushing Vice more than Beale Street.  Beale Street is easily their winner of those two on all accounts except Actor.

 

It's not a forward-thinking ideology. It's an ideology that's stuck in the past, concerned with the kind of Best Picture nominees that dominated the 2000's awards... and it's extremely disappointing. If Vice gets a Best Picture nomination and Beale Street misses, I would be very disappointed; granted, I haven't seen either of the movies yet.

[The Panda]

14 minutes ago, Slambros said:

 

It's not a forward-thinking ideology. It's an ideology that's stuck in the past, concerned with the kind of Best Picture nominees that dominated the 2000's awards... and it's extremely disappointing. If Vice gets a Best Picture nomination and Beale Street misses, I would be very disappointed; granted, I haven't seen either of the movies yet.

Even then, Barry Jenkins won with Moonlight, and Beale Street is arguably more accessible than Moonlight, no reason for Annapurna to consider Vice their bigger contender

[titanic2187]

18 hours ago, Slambros said:

 

It's not a forward-thinking ideology. It's an ideology that's stuck in the past, concerned with the kind of Best Picture nominees that dominated the 2000's awards... and it's extremely disappointing. If Vice gets a Best Picture nomination and Beale Street misses, I would be very disappointed; granted, I haven't seen either of the movies yet.

If beale street could win GG this sunday , a nomination then is locked.....

 

The odd is now in favour of A star is born but so to Dunkirk last year before GG awards, but yet a critically acclaimed three billboard before backlash walked away the prize.