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Best Picture Predictions - 2018

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13 minutes ago, titanic2187 said:

momentum of Crazy rich asians and Bohemian spike quickly!

Both film got SGA ensemble, Golden globe and PGA nomination!

 

And they snub if the beale street could talk???!!!

Small movies tend to have a tough time getting in here. Whiplash, Foxcatcher (which ended up not nominated), and Call Me by Your Name are the only sub-$20M grossers to get in here in the last few years. Though Beale Street probably would’ve made it if Annapurna wasn’t throwing most of their limited remaining resources behind Vice.

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25 minutes ago, CoolioD1 said:

PGA Nominees:

 

Black Panther

BlacKkKlansman

Bohemian Rhapsody

Crazy Rich Asians

The Favourite

Green Book 

A Quiet Place

A Star is Born

Roma

Vice

This is going to be Best Picture lineup too isn't it? Don't see it changing much.

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Just now, Carlangonz said:

This is going to be Best Picture lineup too isn't it? Don't see it changing much.

looking back there's usually one movie that doesn't make this line-up that gets nominated for best picture. this year that'll probably be Beale Street if it happens.

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Just now, CoolioD1 said:

looking back there's usually one movie that doesn't make this line-up that gets nominated for best picture. this year that'll probably be Beale Street if it happens.

I don't see how crazy rich asian can gain support from craft bodies.

 

Beside best picture, the film has no shot at other categories, constance wu was not really a real actress contender, her GG nomination was still a mega-surprise even in comedy category. Oscar need broad appeal to all the category, that's why it think CRA may missed out.

6 minutes ago, filmlover said:

Small movies tend to have a tough time getting in here. Whiplash, Foxcatcher (which ended up not nominated), and Call Me by Your Name are the only sub-$20M grossers to get in here in the last few years. Though Beale Street probably would’ve made it if Annapurna wasn’t throwing most of their limited remaining resources behind Vice.

Have you seen Beale street? Is it more mainstream appealing than moonlight? The box office gross seems suggest so

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Just now, titanic2187 said:

Have you seen Beale street? Is it more mainstream appealing than moonlight? The box office gross seems suggest so

I haven’t seen it yet (this weekend) but I’ll be surprised if it comes close to matching Moonlight’s gross at this point unless it becomes the surprise Best Picture winner again (which it won’t). $15-20M is looking like where it’ll land.

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9 minutes ago, CoolioD1 said:

looking back there's usually one movie that doesn't make this line-up that gets nominated for best picture. this year that'll probably be Beale Street if it happens.

Yup, it's probably taking over AQP or CRA spot.

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New predictions:

 

1. A Star Is Born

2. Roma

3. BlacKkKlansman

4. The Favourite

5. Black Panther

6. Green Book

7. A Quiet Place

8. Bohemian Rhapsody

9. Vice

————————-

10. If Beale Street Could Talk

11. Eighth Grade

12. Crazy Rich Asians

 

CRA’s biggest hurdle is that it can only get one other nomination max (Screenplay). This just feels like a populist film such as Deadpool or Wonder Woman that has a decent guild showing but doesn’t make it anywhere at the Oscars. If it can get into WGA over BP or CYEFM, then I’ll consider bumping it over Beale Street and Eighth Grade.

A Quiet Place is slowly positioning itself as a sleeper with a bunch of nominations. I’m veeeeeery close to putting Krasinski in Director’s fifth spot.

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No big surprises from the PGA. The love here further bolsters the Best Picture cases for Bohemian Rhapsody and Crazy Rich Asians. I'm still not sold on A Quiet Place as a Picture nominee, but the appearance here and Blunt's SAG nomination at least put it in the conversation.

 

I would say that I'm mystified at how Vice has been a bigger player than Beale Street, but it makes a lot of sense: it's the flashier film with much-hyped performances from two highly-respected actors and recognizing it allows the industry to make a statement about the political landscape. Beale Street is also political from what I've heard (not surprising given the source material and the present-day parallels), but not in nearly as explicit a manner as Vice. I feel like it could be headed for the same fate as Carol: a lauded film with people who love it, but not enough people to propel it to the Picture nod.

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Feel like take out Crazy Rich Asians, and this is our BP line-up. Maybe Beale Street also takes down A Quiet Place.

 

Guess that's good for the ratings, since half of the nominees will be populist hits. I haven't seen all the movies listed, but this seems like this year will be a weak list of movies quality-wise.

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Producer's Guild of America Results vs Oscar Nominations:

 

2010: 9/10

2011: 7/10

2012: 8/10

2013: 8/10

2014: 7/10

2015: 7/10

2016: 9/10

2017: 7/10

2018: ?

 

I think 8/10 would be a safe average to predict which ones will get in this year. The ones in bold I think have the strongest chance of actually getting the nomination.

 

Black Panther

BlacKkKlansman

Bohemian Rhapsody

Crazy Rich Asians

The Favourite

Green Book

A Quiet Place

Roma

A Star is Born

Vice

 

They'll probably add in one other film that isn't included on the line-up. In that case, I think Beale Street will take that spot.

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Aside from Adapted Screenplay (which I think at this point it can get into), CRA's only other shots could be Production Design, Supporting Actress (I wouldn't count out Yeoh yet, but I'm surprised SAG didn't pull for her when they pushed for Ensemble), and Original Score.

 

Of this list I'd say A Quiet Place is most likely on the chopping block. 

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