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Best Picture Predictions - 2018

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3 minutes ago, titanic2187 said:

And that will attract backlash, BP has started to gain huge amount of backlash even before the oscar nomination voting kicks in. 

Especially they realised BP could be the first film to represent superhero genre in oscar

I wouldn't call BP's SH backlash "huge", certainly not bigger than GB's "white savior" backlash. This is a strange year without a clear frontrunner which is great but it also frustrates pundits who got used to know the projected winner at this time. 

 

BP keeps collecting nominations so that's good and we have DGA and BAFTA noms next week. There's a lot of expectation that Coogler may pop up at DGA considering that 2 spots are in the flux. we'll see. IMO, nothing but BP feels right as the Picture winner. The narrative is in its favor, and if AMPAS is so anti-SH/CBM pinch your nose and vote, it isn't like they didn't do it many times before. 

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What a weird year! BR continues to surge as a contender, even for the win. In a 5 BP field it would even have strong chances to be nommed. All this despite a troubled production and mild critics reception.

 

Great news also for Green Book and Roma. It's a fascinating fight for the gold without a real frontrunner.

 

At this point I can't see any of this missing the cut

Black Panther

Blackkkansman

A Star is Born

Roma

Green Book

Bohemian Rhapsody

Favourite

 

And after PGA, I am quite confident the other 2 nominees will be Vice and... Crazy Rich Asians.

 

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8 hours ago, The Panda said:

Hoping the globes win causes backlash against Green Book and Rhapsody.  Also, I think Cuaron getting a directing win is endorsing that Roma would have won Drama otherwise.

I hope GB and BR can still be nominated at least, you can't completely disregard what audience love, a biopic is making a potential 800m! 

 

As for cauron, I hope oscar stick with this choice, they never give best director to a non-english film ,ang lee was famously snubbed for crouching tiger . hidden dragon. Roma will be the great history maker but Roma isn't wining best picture, i don't think academy is ready for non-english winner  

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1 hour ago, titanic2187 said:

By the way, i feel so bad for cold war, the movie has been undergo a serious oscar campaign, hoping to gain something else other than best foreign film nod but seem like no one cares despite great reviews. 

 

I'm sure it can still get Foreign Feature and Cinematography, but I think that'll be about it. I was predicting Joanna Kulig for Actress, but that's such a competitive field and she hasn't shown up enough.

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art director's guild nominees

 

Quote

Period Film
The Ballad of Buster Scruggs” (Jess Gonchor)
“Bohemian Rhapsody” (Aaron Haye)
“The Favourite” (Fiona Crombie)
“First Man” (Nathan Crowley)
“Roma” (Eugenio Caballero)

Fantasy Film
Black Panther” (Hannah Beachler)
“Fantastic Beasts: The Crimes of Grindelwald” (Stuart Craig)
“The House With a Clock in Its Walls” (Jon Hutman)
“Mary Poppins Returns” (John Myhre)
“Ready Player One” (Adam Stockhausen)

Contemporary Film
“A Quiet Place” (Jeffrey Beecroft)
“A Star Is Born” (Karen Murphy)
“Crazy Rich Asians” (Nelson Coates)
“Mission: Impossible — Fallout” (Peter Wenham)
“Welcome to Marwen” (Stefan Dechant)

Animated Film
“Dr. Seuss’ The Grinch” (Colin Stimpson)
“Incredibles 2” (Ralph Eggleston)
“Isle of Dogs” (Adam Stockhausen, Paul Harrod)
“Ralph Breaks the Internet” (Cory Loftis)
“Spider-Man: Into the Spider-Verse” (Justin K. Thompson)

Editors guild (who knew tele was such a deadpool 2 fan)

Quote

Best Edited Feature Film (Dramatic)
“BlacKkKlansman” (Barry Alexander Brown)
“Bohemian Rhapsody” (John Ottman, ACE)
“First Man” (Tom Cross, ACE)
“Roma” (Alfonso Cuarón & Adam Gough)
“A Star is Born” (Jay Cassidy, ACE)

Best Edited Feature Film (Comedy)
Crazy Rich Asians” (Myron Kerstein)
“Deadpool 2” (Craig Alpert, ACE, Elísabet Ronaldsdóttir & Dirk Westervelt)
“The Favourite” (Yorgos Mavropsaridis, ACE)
“Green Book” (Patrick J. Don Vito)
“Vice” (Hank Corwin, ACE)

Best Edited Animated Feature Film
“Incredibles 2” (Stephen Schaffer, ACE)
“Isle of Dogs” (Andrew Weisblum, ACE, Ralph Foster & Edward Bursch)
“Spider-Man: Into the Spider-Verse” (Robert Fisher, Jr.)

Best Edited Documentary (Feature)
“Free Solo” (Bob Eisenhardt, ACE)
“RBG” (Carla Gutierrez)
“Three Identical Strangers” (Michael Harte)
“Won’t You Be My Neighbor?” (Jeff Malmberg & Aaron Wickenden, ACE)

 

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I was hoping Leave No Trace would make it into Adapted and vie for the fifth slot, but no matter; that five is a very rock solid group of five for Adapted Screenplay. That's probably the final five in terms of nominations.

 

A Quiet Place and Eighth Grade over First Reformed. I had predicted that, because things are extremely tight, the film out of those three that missed this nomination would be out of this race. It's sad to see Forst Reformed go... but I happy for A Quiet Place and Eighth Grade; hopefully, there's still a plausible scenario where both films can manage a nomination, but if not, neither of those films would make for a bad choice.

 

And Widows missing that editing nom could very well mean bad news. Editing is very competitive this year.

Edited by Slambros
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probably swap either vice or a quiet place for the favourite. i think that's the likely 5 in adapted anyway.

 

39 minutes ago, Slambros said:

And Widows missing that editing nom could very well mean bad news. Editing is very competitive this year.

widows has pretty much been guaranteed to get zero nods for a while now. deader than dead.

Edited by CoolioD1
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I still believe in A Star is Born as well. Everyone’s getting all worked about the Globes last night but if anything they probably just doomed Bohemian Rhapsody’s chances if the last two years are any indications. Let the wolves have the Bryan Singer movie.

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https://www.nextbestpicture.com/latest/takeaways-from-the-2019-visual-effects-bake-off

 

so apparently black panther completely avoided showing the dodgier CG elements that people complained about for their VFX showreel. mostly focused on scenery stuff. something to think about when people end up bitching about that nomination. this article makes it sound like... SOLO had the best reel.

Edited by CoolioD1
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