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Spagspiria

Best Picture Predictions - 2018

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I think there are legit chance we may see Adam Mckay got nominated for best director but the film still missed out the best picture lineup.

 

 

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5 hours ago, CoolioD1 said:

wonder if bobby farrelly's ever gonna follow this up with his own oscar bait or if he'll just stick with the fart comedies.

To be fair, Green Book is the quality of a fart comedy just without the farts.

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https://www.hollywoodreporter.com/lists/bafta-awards-nominations-2019-complete-list-1172383/item/film-bafta-nominees-2019-1172384

 

Film:

BlackKlansman Jason Blum, Spike Lee, Raymond Mansfield, Sean McKittrick, Jordan Peele
The Favourite Ceci Dempsey, Ed Guiney, Yorgos Lanthimos, Lee Magiday
Green Book Jim Burke, Brian Currie, Peter Farrelly, Nick Vallelonga, Charles B. Wessler
Roma Alfonso Cuarón, Gabriela Rodríguez
A Star Is Born Bradley Cooper, Bill Gerber, Lynette Howell Taylor

 

Director:

BlackKlansman Jason Blum, Spike Lee, Raymond Mansfield, Sean McKittrick, Jordan Peele
The Favourite Ceci Dempsey, Ed Guiney, Yorgos Lanthimos, Lee Magiday
Green Book Jim Burke, Brian Currie, Peter Farrelly, Nick Vallelonga, Charles B. Wessler
Roma Alfonso Cuarón, Gabriela Rodríguez
A Star Is Born Bradley Cooper, Bill Gerber, Lynette Howell Taylor

 

Best Actress:

GLENN CLOSE The Wife
LADY GAGA A Star Is Born
MELISSA McCARTHY Can You Ever Forgive Me?
OLIVIA COLMAN The Favourite
VIOLA DAVIS Widows

 

Best Actor:

 

BRADLEY COOPER A Star Is Born
CHRISTIAN BALE Vice
RAMI MALEK Bohemian Rhapsody
STEVE COOGAN Stan & Ollie
VIGGO MORTENSEN Green Book

 

 

Supporting Actress:

 

AMY ADAMS Vice
CLAIRE FOY First Man
EMMA STONE The Favourite
MARGOT ROBBIE Mary Queen of Scots
RACHEL WEISZ The Favourite

 

Supporting Actor:

 

ADAM DRIVER BlacKkKlansman
MAHERSHALA ALI Green Book
RICHARD E. GRANT Can You Ever Forgive Me?
SAM ROCKWELL Vice
TIMOTHÉE CHALAMET Beautiful Boy

 

Outstanding British Film:

 

BEAST Michael Pearce, Kristian Brodie, Lauren Dark, Ivana MacKinnon
BOHEMIAN RHAPSODY Bryan Singer, Graham King, Anthony McCarten
THE FAVOURITE Yorgos Lanthimos, Ceci Dempsey, Ed Guiney, Lee Magiday, Deborah Davis, Tony McNamara
McQUEEN Ian Bonhôte, Peter Ettedgui, Andee Ryder, Nick Taussig
STAN & OLLIE Jon S. Baird, Faye Ward, Jeff Pope
YOU WERE NEVER REALLY HERE Lynne Ramsay, Rosa Attab, Pascal Caucheteux, James Wilson

 

Best Documentary:

 

FREE SOLO Elizabeth Chai Vasarhelyi, Jimmy Chin
McQUEEN Ian Bonhôte, Peter Ettedgui
RBG Julie Cohen, Betsy West
THEY SHALL NOT GROW OLD Peter Jackson
THREE IDENTICAL STRANGERS Tim Wardle, Grace Hughes-Hallett, Becky Read

 

Original Screenplay:

 

COLD WAR Janusz Głowacki, Paweł Pawlikowski
THE FAVOURITE Deborah Davis, Tony McNamara
GREEN BOOK Brian Currie, Peter Farrelly, Nick Vallelonga
ROMA Alfonso Cuarón
VICE Adam McKay

 

Adapted Screenplay:

 

BLACKkKLANSMAN Spike Lee, David Rabinowitz, Charlie Wachtel, Kevin Willmott
CAN YOU EVER FORGIVE ME? Nicole Holofcener, Jeff Whitty
FIRST MAN Josh Singer
IF BEALE STREET COULD TALK Barry Jenkins
A STAR IS BORN Bradley Cooper, Will Fetters, Eric Roth

 

Film not in English Language:

CAPERNAUM Nadine Labaki, Khaled Mouzanar
COLD WAR Paweł Pawlikowski, Tanya Seghatchian, Ewa Puszczyńska
DOGMAN Matteo Garrone
ROMA Alfonso Cuarón, Gabriela Rodríguez
SHOPLIFTERS Hirokazu Kore-eda, Kaoru Matsuzaki

 

Cinematography:

 

BOHEMIAN RHAPSODY Newton Thomas Sigel
COLD WAR Łukasz Żal
THE FAVOURITE Robbie Ryan
FIRST MAN Linus Sandgren
ROMA Alfonso Cuarón

 

Make-up and Hair:

 

BOHEMIAN RHAPSODY Mark Coulier, Jan Sewell
THE FAVOURITE Nadia Stacey
MARY QUEEN OF SCOTS Jenny Shircore
STAN & OLLIE Mark Coulier, Jeremy Woodhead
VICE Nominees TBC

 

Costume Design:

 

THE BALLAD OF BUSTER SCRUGGS Mary Zophres
BOHEMIAN RHAPSODY Julian Day
THE FAVOURITE Sandy Powell
MARY POPPINS RETURNS Sandy Powell
MARY QUEEN OF SCOTS Alexandra Byrne

 

Editing:

 

BOHEMIAN RHAPSODY John Ottman
THE FAVOURITE Yorgos Mavropsaridis
FIRST MAN Tom Cross
ROMA Alfonso Cuarón, Adam Gough
VICE Hank Corwin

 

Production Design:

 

FANTASTIC BEASTS: THE CRIMES OF GRINDELWALD Stuart Craig, Anna Pinnock
THE FAVOURITE Fiona Crombie, Alice Felton
FIRST MAN Nathan Crowley, Kathy Lucas
MARY POPPINS RETURNS John Myhre, Gordon Sim
ROMA Eugenio Caballero, Bárbara Enríquez

 

Special Visual Effects:

 

AVENGERS: INFINITY WAR Dan DeLeeuw, Russell Earl, Kelly Port, Dan Sudick
BLACK PANTHER Geoffrey Baumann, Jesse James Chisholm, Craig Hammack, Dan Sudick
FANTASTIC BEASTS: THE CRIMES OF GRINDELWALD Tim Burke, Andy Kind, Christian Manz, David Watkins
FIRST MAN Ian Hunter, Paul Lambert, Tristan Myles, J.D. Schwalm
READY PLAYER ONE Matthew E. Butler, Grady Cofer, Roger Guyett, David Shirk

 

Original Music:

 

BLACKkKLANSMAN Terence Blanchard
IF BEALE STREET COULD TALK Nicholas Britell
ISLE OF DOGS Alexandre Desplat
MARY POPPINS RETURNS Marc Shaiman
A STAR IS BORN Bradley Cooper, Lady Gaga, Lukas Nelson

 

Sound:

 

BOHEMIAN RHAPSODY John Casali, Tim Cavagin, Nina Hartstone, Paul Massey, John Warhurst
FIRST MAN Mary H. Ellis, Mildred Iatrou Morgan, Ai-Ling Lee, Frank A. Montaño, Jon Taylor
MISSION: IMPOSSIBLE - FALLOUT Gilbert Lake, James H. Mather, Christopher Munro, Mike Prestwood Smith
A QUIET PLACE Erik Aadahl, Michael Barosky, Brandon Procter, Ethan Van der Ryn
A STAR IS BORN Steve Morrow, Alan Robert Murray, Jason Ruder, Tom Ozanich, Dean Zupancic

 

Outstandinf Debut by British Writer, Director or Producer:

 

APOSTASY Daniel Kokotajlo (Writer/Director)
BEAST Michael Pearce (Writer/Director), Lauren Dark (Producer)
A CAMBODIAN SPRING Chris Kelly (Writer/Director/Producer)
PILI Leanne Welham (Writer/Director), Sophie Harman (Producer)
RAY & LIZ Richard Billingham (Writer/Director), Jacqui Davies (Producer

 

Rising Star:

Jessie Buckley

Cynthia Erivo

Barry Keoghan

Lakeith Stanfield

Letitia Wright

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Two notable film got boosted by BAFTA in the award season, Cold War and First Man.

 

Marry Poppin buzz trending down significantly although UK is the largest overseas market for the film.

 

If Beale street could talk is very vulnerable, every vote counts.

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Posted (edited)

Widows rises from the ashes! Lmao. Not really but it’ll be sorta funny if it pulls a Gone Girl and ends up with a lone Best Actress nom as well.

 

Vice is clearly liked in the industry so Rockwell’s likely coming for that afterglow nom. I think Chalamet is gonna be this year’s surprise snub and be replaced by Elliott at the Oscars tbh. He’s hit everything so far and clearly has a lot of goodwill in the industry at the moment (arguably the most of any actor that young since...well, Leo), but that movie is a total no1curr with no shot at a nom for anything else and I’m having a hard time picturing a 23 year old getting an afterglow nom for a flop over a respected veteran who has never been nominated and in a film that’s gonna pick up a boatload of nominations to begin with.

Edited by filmlover

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Oscar race is getting messier, First Man jumped back to the race in the very last minute while Black panther may eventually left out.

 

Even Cold war has come out with some serious buzz......I hope Pawel could kick Bradly cooper out and get that surprise nom

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If Blunt couldn’t get a BAFTA nod...that should be pretty worrying.

 

Also LOL at Black Panther getting completely shut out except at the one category it was most criticized for.

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Posted (edited)

probably my last predictions before the noms come out because all the major precursors have come out but i'm feeling:

 

Picture:

1. Roma

2. BlacKkKlansman

3. A Star is Born

4. Green Book

5. Vice

6. Bohemian Rhapsody

7. The Favourite

8. Black Panther

 

Director:

1. Alfonso Cuaron, Roma

2. Spike Lee, BlacKkKlansman

3. Bradley Cooper, A Star is Born

4. Yorgos Lanthimos, The Favourite

5. Peter Farrelly, Green Book

 

Actor:

1. Rami Malek, Bohemian Rhapsody

2. Christian Bale, Vice

3. Bradley Cooper, A Star is Born

4. Viggo Mortensen, Green Book

5. John David Washington, BlacKkKlansman

 

Actress:

1. Olivia Colman, The Favourite

2. Glenn Close, The Wife

3. Lady Gaga, A Star is Born

4. Melissa McCarthy, Can You Ever Forgive Me?

5. Joanna Kulig, Cold War

 

Supp. Actor:

1. Mahershala Ali, Green Book

2. Richard E. Grant, Can You Ever Forgive Me?

3. Adam Driver, BlacKkKlansman

4. Sam Elliott, A Star is Born

5. Sam Rockwell, Vice

 

Supp. Actress:

1. Regina King, If Beale Street Could Talk

2. Amy Adams, Vice

3. Rachel Weisz, The Favourite

4. Emma Stone, The Favourite

5. Margot Robbie, Mary, Queen of Scots

 

Original Screenplay

1. The Favourite

2. Green Book

3. Roma

4. Vice

5. Eighth Grade

 

Adapted Screenplay

1. BlacKkKlansman

2. A Star Is Born

3. Can You Ever Forgive Me?

4. If Beale Street Could Talk

5. Leave No Trace

Edited by CoolioD1

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20 minutes ago, Spagspiria said:

If Blunt couldn’t get a BAFTA nod...that should be pretty worrying.

 

Also LOL at Black Panther getting completely shut out except at the one category it was most criticized for.

I get the feeling Blunt is gonna end up missing, unfortunately.

 

Black Panther is looking like it’s gonna end up with less nominations than The Dark Knight did but will still end up with a Best Picture nom thanks to the expanded category.

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57 minutes ago, filmlover said:

I get the feeling Blunt is gonna end up missing, unfortunately.

 

Black Panther is looking like it’s gonna end up with less nominations than The Dark Knight did but will still end up with a Best Picture nom thanks to the expanded category.

The question then is who gets the final spot. Probably safe to say that Close, GaGa, McCarthy, and Colman are safely in. The most likely choice seems like Aparacio, imo, but I also wouldn't be shocked if Kulig snuck in.

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I wouldn't be surprised to see Cold War do some Amour-esque overperformance at the Oscar nods. could get directing, actress picture nods or none of it. did pretty well at the BAFTAs and the academy have added so many more foreign/arthouse auteur types to their membership the past couple years.

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Posted (edited)

LOL overreactions. First Man is not back from the dead just because Foy got a nom. She's British and they prefer their people. Look at Steve Coogan. He'll be replaced by JDW in BKKK most likely unless AMPAS somehow goes for Hawke in the unaccessible critics darling First Reformed. Foy will be replaced by King.

 

Blunt was on the shaky ground the moment MPR failed to open big but I'm reading that she is also campaigning for hubby's movie so maybe she split votes? Remember she got in twice at SAG.

 

Yalitza is not happening, people should stop predicting her for 5th, what does she have, Critics Choice nom? Ditto that Kulig girl. she doesn't even have CC. Viola with her dead as dormant movie has better shot on respect and afterglow alone and BAFTA nom at least keeps her in some minor conversation, though this is the award where she had a decent shot of showing up since the movie is considered British for some reason. That it flopped everywhere else with BAFTA is surprising but it was a BO flop in UK too so...There are also critics darlings with GG noms - Colette and some other people I forgot. Either way, Blunt still makes most sense to me as 5th but I can see a veteran get in as an upset. I really can't see Yalitza and don't know why she's constantly predicted as a wild card. yes her movie's strong but no one cares about her and is she even campaigning?

Edited by Valonqar

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2 minutes ago, Valonqar said:

LOL overreactions. First Man is not back from the dead just because Foy got a nom. She's British and they prefer their people. Look at Steve Coogan. He'll be replaced by JDW in BKKK most likely unless AMPAS somehow goes for Hawke in the unaccessible critics darling First Reformed. Foy will be replaced by King.

 

Blunt was on the shaky ground the moment MPR failed to open big but I'm reading that she is also campaigning for hubby's movie so maybe she split votes? Remember she got in twice at SAG.

 

Yalitza is not happening, people should stop predicting her for 5th, what does she have, Critics Choice nom? Viola with her dead as dormant movie has better shot on respect and afterglow alone and BAFTA nom at least keeps her in some minor conversation. There are also critics darlings with GG noms - Colette and some other people I forgot. Either way, Blunt still makes most sense to me as 5th but I can see a veteran get in as an upset. I really can't see Yalitza and don't know why she's constantly predicted as a wild card. yes her movie's strong but no one cares about her and is she even campaigning?

i think you're right about yalitza i changed that to Kulig. I think the snub here was bad for Blunt though, those box office problems you speak of don't extend to the UK MPR is big here and obviously it's an iconicly british thing so her not getting nominated is pretty bad.

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Posted (edited)
8 minutes ago, CoolioD1 said:

i think you're right about yalitza i changed that to Kulig. I think the snub here was bad for Blunt though, those box office problems you speak of don't extend to the UK MPR is big here and obviously it's an iconicly british thing so her not getting nominated is pretty bad.

you understand Oscar games better than I do. how various nominations rank? for example, is Blunt snub for BAFTA so bad that it offsets her noms for GG, CC and SAG, while BAFTA nom is so good that it offsets Davis snubs for GG, CC, SAG? I'm confused cause I always thought that Guilds are stronger due to bigger overlap with AMPAS.

Edited by Valonqar

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Posted (edited)
12 minutes ago, Valonqar said:

you understand Oscar games better than I do. how various nominations rank? for example, is Blunt snub for BAFTA so bad that it offsets her noms for GG, CC and SAG, while BAFTA nom is so good that it offsets Davis snubs for GG, CC, SAG? I'm confused cause I always thought that Guilds are stronger due to bigger overlap with AMPAS.

i think SAG noms happened a month ago when poppins buzz was a lot stronger but it's kinda been deflating since then and this BAFTA showing is just indicative of that. davis might be a BAFTA only thing since that movie actually did pretty decent box office in the UK it's based on a famous british show. i'd say overall blunt would be more likely than davis for an oscar nod though.

Edited by CoolioD1

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I guess this year we won't have any oscar season hit.

2013- django, les miserable, zero dark 30, silver lining, 

2014- american hustle + wolf of wall street

2015- American Sniper + Imitation Game

2016- the revenant 

2017 - hidden figure + la la land

2018 - The post

 

I miss 2013 oscar season when every film with oscar buzz overperform, and argo and life of pi both had supper leggy into the season . 

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13 minutes ago, CoolioD1 said:

i think SAG noms happened a month ago when poppins buzz was a lot stronger but it's kinda been deflating since then and this BAFTA showing is just indicative of that. davis might be a BAFTA only thing since that movie actually did pretty decent box office in the UK it's based on a famous british show. i'd say overall blunt would be more likely than davis for an oscar nod though.

agreed. MPR buzz deflated considerably which is evident in MPR missing PGA although it made AFI Top 10 (when everyone expected a break out or something)

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2 hours ago, titanic2187 said:

I guess this year we won't have any oscar season hit.

2013- django, les miserable, zero dark 30, silver lining, 

2014- american hustle + wolf of wall street

2015- American Sniper + Imitation Game

2016- the revenant 

2017 - hidden figure + la la land

2018 - The post

 

I miss 2013 oscar season when every film with oscar buzz overperform, and argo and life of pi both had supper leggy into the season . 

 

Hold your horses;

 

I wholeheartedly believe in the surprise success of If Beale Street Could Talk. 2018 has been a great year for African-American led films, and I believe that Jenkins' romance has the capacity to appeal to that audience, as well as the artsy audience. I wouldn't count out an overperformance. It's the little film that can.

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4 hours ago, Spagspiria said:

The question then is who gets the final spot. Probably safe to say that Close, GaGa, McCarthy, and Colman are safely in. The most likely choice seems like Aparacio, imo, but I also wouldn't be shocked if Kulig snuck in.

I would never stop laughing if Felicity Jones pulled an Extremely Loud & Incredibly Close and got nominated for playing RBG (even though she’s actually pretty good in On the Basis of Sex and the movie itself is worlds better than Extremely Loud). I doubt that happens though.

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Don’t see a path for a King win now really, snubbed from BAFTA and SAG.  Shame too because she was the best supporting female performance.

 

Really puzzled at the lack of Beale Street love in general.

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