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Best Picture Predictions - 2018

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16 minutes ago, filmlover said:

With On the Basis of Sex doing well at the box office at just the right time I feel like we shouldn’t wouldn’t rule out Felicity Jones ending up as the fifth Best Actress nominee despite missing all the precursors, especially with how up for grabs that last spot is and the fact she’s playing an icon (who also has a documentary about her in contention for that category in the same year).

The box office run is impressive, but it come too late to generate any buzz, the voting close in 2 days. 

If the reviews was good and better than what it is having now, it could even replace Vice.

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15 minutes ago, titanic2187 said:

The box office run is impressive, but it come too late to generate any buzz, the voting close in 2 days. 

If the reviews was good and better than what it is having now, it could even replace Vice.

I’m not predicting it’ll happen at the moment but I wouldn’t rule out the possibility considering the studio (Focus) and the fact the last spot is wide open (Mary Poppins has lost too much buzz, Davis was probably a BAFTA only thing, and I’m not really feeling Aparicio, Roma is definitely Cuaron’s show).

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3 minutes ago, filmlover said:

I’m not predicting it’ll happen at the moment but I wouldn’t rule out the possibility considering the studio (Focus) and the fact the last spot is wide open (Mary Poppins has lost too much buzz, Davis was probably a BAFTA only thing, and I’m not really feeling Aparicio, Roma is definitely Cuaron’s show).

I am still rooting for Apraricio for final spot, Oscar best actress are more open to non-english performance. And Aparicio has been very active in public space, she was on Jimmy show, Golden globe(sitting next to Cuaron), and even become the headline cover for Vogue Mexico despite not speaking English at all. 

 

The awareness is there, if there are voters care about the people of colour, she will be their top spot during voting,  

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I think Rosamund Pike has a chance to sneak in. She owns her film, A Private War--really, I've seen it, she's terrific--and this is a chance for an afterglow nomination. The film takes a positive stance of journalism so I could see politically-minded voters going for it. Keep in mind, she did get the Golden Globe nomination, expanding her visibility. Out of all the fringe competitors, she's one of the one that I'm rooting for the most.

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IMO, most logical 5th spot is still Blunt and then ladies who got some nominations and then Yalitza (frontrunner movie) and then a NGNG like Felicity. I could actually see NGNG where Blunt scores Supporting for AQP (remember SAG nom) and one of above mentioned options replace her in Actress. Mind you, I think Supporting Blunt in the line-up that includes King (Amy, Stone, Weisz, King). So Robbie would be out. Or whoever is expected to get 5th. 

Edited by Valonqar
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9 hours ago, The Panda said:

Yeah, 1 is who I either think will win or is a safe bet at a nom.  Obviously not my dream list or anything

Other than switching out Costumes — cause I will jumped through my TV and go all Real Housewives Drama on someone if Ruth Carter loses that award — I think your really right on the money. 

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The acting winners at Critics Choice are Bale, Close/Gaga (tie!), Ali, and King. The snubs at BAFTA and SAG for King sure makes things interesting. If Bale wins SAG, the Oscar is his.

 

Roma just took home Picture and Director.

 

Edit: updated cause Wiki initially only said Close. We see what you did there, BFCA.

Edited by filmlover
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I’m starting to get a feeling that Black Panther is gonna miss the morning of nominations in a big shock. Its awards trajectory has been a bit worse than The Dark Knight’s was a decade ago. Don’t want to imagine the PR nightmare that would unfold if it does.

Edited by filmlover
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2 hours ago, filmlover said:

I’m starting to get a feeling that Black Panther is gonna miss the morning of nominations in a big shock. Its awards trajectory has been a bit worse than The Dark Knight’s was a decade ago. Don’t want to imagine the PR nightmare that would unfold if it does.

 

Once voters get to the rhinos, they go "NOPE".

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So, during the commercials for how to get away with murder the oscars had a brief commercial clip advertising it and they were playing “step into the stop light” by legend has it... which is the song played during the first black panther trailer. For sure getting nominated. Why else would they have that song?

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2 hours ago, CoolioD1 said:

if spider-verse released earlier that post malone song maybe could've been nominated. the shortlist was over a month ago and it just went to #1 this week. maybe if it had built up some momentum. 

 

We might have been spared a live performance though, and I like the song.

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Here are my final predictions:

Spoiler

BEST PICTURE

Black Panther

BlacKkKlansman

Bohemian Rhapsody

Cold War

The Favourite

Green Book

Roma

A Star is Born

Vice

 

BEST DIRECTOR

Bradley Cooper (A Star is Born)

Alfonso Cuaron (Roma)

Peter Farrelly (Green Book)

Spike Lee (BlacKkKlansman)

Pawel Pawlikowski (Cold War)

 

BEST ACTOR

Christian Bale (Vice)

Bradley Cooper (A Star is Born)

Willem Dafoe (At Eternity’s Gate)

Rami Malek (Bohemian Rhapsody)

Viggo Mortensen (Green Book)

 

BEST ACTRESS

Yalitza Aparacio (Roma)

Olivia Colman (The Favourite)

Glenn Close (The Wife)

Lady GaGa (A Star is Born)

Melissa McCarthy (Can You Ever Forgive Me?)

 

BEST SUPPORTING ACTOR

Mahershala Ali (Green Book)

Timothee Chalamet (Beautiful Boy)

Adam Driver (BlacKkKlansman)

Sam Elliott (A Star is Born)

Richard E. Grant (Can You Ever Forgive Me?)

 

BEST SUPPORTING ACTRESS

Amy Adams (Vice)

Emily Blunt (A Quiet Place)

Regina King (If Beale Street Could Talk)

Emma Stone (The Favourite)

Rachel Weisz (The Favourite)

 

BEST ORIGINAL SCREENPLAY

Eighth Grade

The Favourite

First Reformed

Green Book

Roma

 

BEST ADAPTED SCREENPLAY

BlacKkKlansman

Can You Ever Forgive Me?

Crazy Rich Asians

If Beale Street Could Talk

A Star is Born

 

BEST ORIGINAL SCORE

Terence Blanchard (BlacKkKlansman)

Nicholas Britell (If Beale Street Could Talk)

Ludwig Goransson (Black Panther)

Justin Hurwitz (First Man)

Marc Shaiman (Mary Poppins Returns)

 

BEST ORIGINAL SONG

“All The Stars” (Black Panther)

“I’ll Fight” (RBG)

“Shallow” (A Star is Born)

“Trip A Little Light Fantastic” (Mary Poppins Returns)

“When A Cowboy Trades His Spurs For Wings” (The Ballad of Buster Scruggs)

 

BEST FILM EDITING

BlacKkKlansman

Bohemian Rhapsody

First Man

Roma

A Star is Born

 

BEST CINEMATOGRAPHY

Cold War

The Favourite

First Man

Roma

A Star is Born

 

BEST PRODUCTION DESIGN

Black Panther

The Favourite

First Man

Mary Poppins Returns

Roma

 

BEST COSTUME DESIGN

Black Panther

The Favourite

Mary Poppins Returns

Mary, Queen of Scots

The Nutcracker and the Four Realms

 

BEST MAKEUP AND HAIRSTYLING

Black Panther

Bohemian Rhapsody

Vice

 

BEST VISUAL EFFECTS

Avengers: Infinity War

First Man

Ready Player One

Solo: A Star Wars Story

Welcome to Marwen

 

BEST SOUND MIXING

Bohemian Rhapsody

First Man

A Quiet Place

Roma

A Star is Born

 

BEST SOUND EDITING

Black Panther

First Man

A Quiet Place

Mission: Impossible - Fallout

Roma

 

BEST ANIMATED FEATURE

The Incredibles 2

Isle of Dogs

Mirai

Ralph Breaks the Internet

Spider-Man: Into the Spider-Verse

 

BEST FOREIGN LANGUAGE FEATURE

Burning

Cold War

Never Look Away

Roma

Shoplifters

 

BEST DOCUMENTARY FEATURE

Free Solo

Minding The Gap

RBG

Shirkers

Won’t You Be My Neighbor?

 

NOMINEE COUNT:

Roma - 10

A Star is Born - 10

The Favourite - 8

Black Panther - 7

BlacKkKlansman – 6

First Man - 6

Bohemian Rhapsody – 5

Green Book - 5

Cold War – 4

Mary Poppins Returns - 4

Vice – 4

Can You Ever Forgive Me? – 3

If Beale Street Could Talk – 3

RBG - 2

 

 

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I'm gonna be out tomorrow and Monday, so here are my FINAL PREDICTIONS:

 

Spoiler


Picture:

 

1. A Star Is Born

2. Roma

3. BlacKkKlansman

4. Green Book

5. The Favourite

6. Vice

7. Black Panther

8. Bohemian Rhapsody

----------------

9. A Quiet Place

10. If Beale Street Could Talk

 

Director:

 

1. Alfonso Cuaron, Roma

2. Spike Lee, BlacKkKlansman

3. Bradley Cooper, A Star Is Born

4. Yorgos Lanthimos, The Favourite

5. Adam McKay, Vice

Alt: Peter Farrelly, Green Book

 

Actor:

 

1. Rami Malek, Bohemian Rhapsody

2. Christian Bale, Vice

3. Bradley Cooper, A Star Is Born

4. Viggo Mortensen, Green Book

5. John David Washington, BlacKkKlansman

Alt: Ethan Hawke, First Reformed

 

Actress:

 

1. Olivia Colman, The Favourite

2. Glenn Close, The Wife

3. Lady Gaga, A Star Is Born

4. Melissa McCarthy, Can You Ever Forgive Me?

5. Emily Blunt, Mary Poppins Returns

Alt: Joanna Kulig, Cold War

 

Supporting Actor:

 

1. Mahershala Ali, Green Book

2. Richard E. Grant, Can You Ever Forgive Me?

3. Adam Driver, BlacKkKlansman

4. Timothee Chalamet, Beautiful Boy

5. Sam Rockwell, Vice

Alt: Sam Elliott, A Star Is Born

 

Supporting Actress:

 

1. Amy Adams, Vice

2. Rachel Weisz, The Favourite

3. Emma Stone, The Favourite

4. Regina King, If Beale Street Could Talk

5. Emily Blunt, A Quiet Place

Alt: Margot Robbie, Mary Queen of Scots

 

Original Screenplay:

 

1. The Favourite

2. Roma

3. Green Book

4. Vice

5. Eighth Grade

Alt: A Quiet Place

 

Adapted Screenplay:

 

1. BlacKkKlansman

2. A Star Is Born

3. Black Panther

4. Can You Ever Forgive Me?

5. If Beale Street Could Talk

Alt: Crazy Rich Asians

 

Animated:

 

1. Incredibles 2

2. Spider-Man: Into the Spider-Verse

3. Isle of Dogs

4. Ralph Breaks the Internet

5. Mirai

Alt: Early Man

 

Foreign:

 

1. Roma

2. Cold War

3. Shoplifters

4. Burning

5. Capernaum

Alt: Never Look Away

 

Documentary:

 

1. Three Identical Strangers

2. Won't You Be My Neighbor?

3. RBG

4. Free Solo

5. Minding the Gap

Alt: On Her Shoulders

 

Cinematography:

 

1. Roma

2. Cold War

3. The Favourite

4. A Star Is Born

5. First Man

Alt: If Beale Street Could Talk

 

Editing:

 

1. Roma

2. A Star Is Born

3. BlacKkKlansman

4. Vice

5. The Favourite

Alt: Green Book

 

Production Design:

 

1. The Favourite

2. Black Panther

3. Mary Poppins Returns

4. Roma

5. Bohemian Rhapsody

Alt: Fantastic Beasts: The Crimes of Grindelwald

 

Costume Design:

 

1. The Favourite

2. Black Panther

3. Mary Poppins Returns

4. Bohemian Rhapsody

5. Mary Queen of Scots

Alt: Fantastic Beasts: The Crimes of Grindelwald

 

Makeup:

 

1. Vice

2. Black Panther

3. Bohemian Rhapsody

Alt: Mary Queen of Scots

 

Score:

 

1. Black Panther

2. If Beale Street Could Talk

3. Mary Poppins Returns

4. First Man

5. A Quiet Place

Alt: Isle of Dogs

 

Song:

 

1. Shallow, A Star Is Born

2. All the Stars, Black Panther

3. Trip a Little Light Fantastic, Mary Poppins Returns

4. A Place Called Slaughter Race, Ralph Breaks the Internet

5. I'll Fight, RBG

Alt: When a Cowboy Trades His Spurs for Wings, The Ballad of Buster Scruggs

 

Visual Effects:

 

1. Avengers: Infinity War

2. Black Panther

3. Solo: A Star Wars Story

4. Mary Poppins Returns

5. Ready Player One

Alt: Ant-Man and the Wasp

 

Sound Editing:

 

1. A Quiet Place

2. Roma

3. A Star Is Born

4. Black Panther

5. First Man

Alt: Bohemian Rhapsody

 

Sound Mixing:

 

1. A Quiet Place

2. A Star Is Born

3. Bohemian Rhapsody

4. Mary Poppins Returns

5. Roma

Alt: Black Panther

 

 

Nomination counts:

 

10:

The Favourite (Picture, Director, Actress, Supporting Actress x2, Original Screenplay, Cinematography, Editing, Production Design, Costume Design)

A Star Is Born (Picture, Director, Actor, Actress, Adapted Screenplay, Cinematography, Editing, Song, Sound Editing, Sound Mixing)

 

9:

Black Panther (Picture, Adapted Screenplay, Production Design, Costume Design, Makeup, Score, Song, Visual Effects, Sound Editing)

Roma (Picture, Director, Original Screenplay, Foreign, Cinematography, Editing, Production Design, Sound Editing, Sound Mixing)

 

8:

Vice (Picture, Director, Actor, Supporting Actor, Supporting Actress, Original Screenplay, Editing, Makeup)

 

7:

Mary Poppins Returns (Actress, Production Design, Costume Design, Score, Song, Visual Effects, Sound Mixing)

 

6:

BlacKkKlansman (Picture, Director, Actor, Supporting Actor, Adapted Screenplay, Editing)

Bohemian Rhapsody (Picture, Actor, Production Design, Costume Design, Makeup, Sound Mixing)

 

4:

Green Book (Picture, Actor, Supporting Actor, Original Screenplay)

A Quiet Place (Supporting Actress, Score, Sound Editing, Sound Mixing)

 

3:

Can You Ever Forgive Me? (Actress, Supporting Actor, Adapted Screenplay)

First Man (Cinematography, Score, Sound Editing)

If Beale Street Could Talk (Supporting Actress, Adapted Screenplay, Score)

 

2:

Cold War (Foreign, Cinematography)

Ralph Breaks the Internet (Animated, Song)

RBG (Documentary, Song)

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