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Best Picture Predictions - 2018

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On 2/14/2019 at 1:28 PM, captainwondyful said:

New York Times: What Will Win Best Picture? 20 Oscar Votes Spill Their Secrets

 

Highlights are:

  • Resistance to vote for Disney (Black Panther) and Netflix (Roma)
  • All 20 Voted for Malek but none for Bohemian Rhapsody as Top Choice
  • One older gentleman voted for Green Book because "sick of being told what to think"
  • Only one voted for Vice, and that's because they were friends with the producers.
  • Believe Blackkklansman will stand up the best historically, but none loved it.
  • Loved the Favourite but didn't think it would win.
  • Dislike of Lady Gaga killed A Star Is Born buzz

 

From the article, I get the impression Green Book, Blackkklansman, Roma, and Black Panther are the only films resonating with the voters.

 

My gut is saying they're going to go with Green Book, because, it's the Academy.  

 

That said, I wouldn't be at all shocked if Black Panther gets this based on preferential voting.  It feels like there's no clear frontrunner, which means voting will go to a second or third round.  Black Panther snags enough of those placements and that's enough to get them over the top.  (I also confess I don't know how the Academy tallies its votes.  I'm only going off of who we do Rank Choice Voting in Maine, where you need 50% of the votes to win.)

I've been listening to a couple of podcasts that look back at past Oscar winners, one has hosts who watch the year's Best Picture winner vs. the top-grossing (worldwide) movie of the year and ranks which is better (if it's the same, they just talk about the one movie some more). The other hosts watch all the Best Picture nominees and picks winners from the bunch. Tastes change, tastes differ, but often times who/what won was based on outside stuff (politics, popularity, etc). that seems utterly incomprehensible for people who are just going by the movies and that's it. 

 

Some of these AMPAS members are playing themselves and don't even realize it. No one's going to care in 5-10 years that you pwned Film Twitter, or that this actress wasn't famous enough or that actor is too thirsty, people are just going to look at the winners compared to the nominees and say, WTF Academy.  Art is subjective but some of the "logic" displayed by these anonymous voters is just pathetic.

 

And here's a video demonstration of how the Best Picture preferential balloting works:

 

 

 

 

SNL did a nominees sketch, not their best but some good in-jokes if you've been following this Oscar season:

 

 

Especially loved the riff on Gaga's "99 people in a room" bit and how, erm, attached she and Bradley Cooper have become, plus the Green Book shade.

 

Edited by BoxOfficeChica
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Has ever a movie won BP without any major victory at the guilds? If not then Blackkklansman can be put into sleep. Or at least not considered anymore as the alternative to Roma/Green Book.

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I really don't understand how both ASIB and Klansman went from contenders to also runs in the last couple of months. First BCoop not winning anything and now Spike Lee possibly losing his consolation screenplay prize, I don't get it, at all.

 

edit. Also Eighth Grade beating Roma and Green Book feels like they didn't wanna spoil who wins best picture.

Edited by Joel M

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1 minute ago, Joel M said:

I really don't understand how both ASIB and Klansman went from contenders to also runs in the last couple of months. First BCoop not winning anything and now Spike Lee possibly losing his consolation screenplay prize, I don't get it, at all.

I still think BlacKkKlansman is taking home Screenplay on account that it's nominated for Best Picture (the last movie to win there that wasn't a BP nominee was Gods & Monsters 20 years ago) but yeah.

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This year could be a prime example of how to keep the suspense of the award season despite countless award in town,

 

2013 Oscar was the most boring since expansion when pre-Oscar show severely spoiled the winner upfront with almost every categories line up with their guild awards.  2016 was a good year where many technical categories + Best Picture came in surprise. 

 

Last year was too boring as well outside of BP race.

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1 minute ago, titanic2187 said:

This year could be a prime example of how to keep the suspense of the award season despite countless award in town,

 

2013 Oscar was the most boring since expansion when pre-Oscar show severely spoiled the winner upfront with almost every categories line up with their guild awards.  2016 was a good year where many technical categories + Best Picture came in surprise. 

 

Last year was too boring as well outside of BP race.

Last year's ultra lock-in for all the acting noms for the entire season sent it to Snoozeville. Got to the point that I was happy to see the Globes' split acting awards just to see some other people give a speech.

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2 hours ago, Joel M said:

I really don't understand how both ASIB and Klansman went from contenders to also runs in the last couple of months. First BCoop not winning anything and now Spike Lee possibly losing his consolation screenplay prize, I don't get it, at all.

 

edit. Also Eighth Grade beating Roma and Green Book feels like they didn't wanna spoil who wins best picture.

saw someone muse on Twitter that Cooper's work on ASIB didn't give the impression that he wants it hard enough. that the Academy likes to be courted and he just did the work (both acting and directing) with more of a cool, quiet attitude than an ingratiating, "aren't you impressed by this?!?" one. i think there's something to that.

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1 hour ago, Jake Gittes said:

saw someone muse on Twitter that Cooper's work on ASIB didn't give the impression that he wants it hard enough. that the Academy likes to be courted and he just did the work (both acting and directing) with more of a cool, quiet attitude than an ingratiating, "aren't you impressed by this?!?" one. i think there's something to that.

 

The Academy and HR departments in companies have a lot in common...they all want asskissers. 

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20 hours ago, BoxOfficeChica said:

Some of these AMPAS members are playing themselves and don't even realize it. No one's going to care in 5-10 years that you pwned Film Twitter, or that this actress wasn't famous enough or that actor is too thirsty, people are just going to look at the winners compared to the nominees and say, WTF Academy.  Art is subjective but some of the "logic" displayed by these anonymous voters is just pathetic.

 

They are for a big part total unknown and anonymous like you said, thus not really playing themselves, specially the older one that will be dead by that time, they don't get some social punishment from "bad" voting choice of their past.

 

It make total sense for them to use their powers to receives benefit from their positions of voters, if they rewards being courted, the future year's the budget and energy to court them will increase, if they punish campaigning they do not like or it absence they will get campaigning they like and so on.

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13 hours ago, Jake Gittes said:

saw someone muse on Twitter that Cooper's work on ASIB didn't give the impression that he wants it hard enough. that the Academy likes to be courted and he just did the work (both acting and directing) with more of a cool, quiet attitude than an ingratiating, "aren't you impressed by this?!?" one. i think there's something to that.

the big side-eye he got from everyone during that THR roundtable the moment he talked about how hard it was to get this film made (lol the 4th remake of this film) probably spoke volumes about how he's viewed by some. i don't think anyone wants to hear him talk about how hard it was for him, an A-list actor to make a film when other directors have to scrape for funding or go to streaming. 

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