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Best Picture Predictions - 2018

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I mean, I'm definitely rooting for Under the Silver Lake to go as far as it can, but I don't think this year will belong to A24 like past years did. I think this'll be a different sort of year for sure.

 

It's kind of too early to tell for all of this year's films from every company. Though I must say, I really think Mary, Queen of Scots will progress forward, as may The Man Who Killed Don Quixote, Robert Zemeckis' The Women of Marwen, and Richard Linklater's Where'd You Go, Bernadette?.

 

But be on the lookout for Rupert Wyatt's sci-fi thriller Captive State. I'm serious. The film's got Focus Features behind it, they're giving it a wide-release, John Goodman's in the lead role, the concept art and the description are both wonderfully cryptic... Captive State may just be another headliner in a potential banner year for Sci-Fi alongside other films like AD Astra.

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I found a film enthusiast's blog that details some lesser-known ideas for 2018 films that could land big at awards season. Before I get into my thoughts here is a link to his blog (which is honestly outdated enough to have the old title of Debra Granik's Leave No Trace):

 

http://almostsideways.blogspot.com/2018/01/2019-oscar-predictions-january.html?m=1

 

So here are the films that I think this blogger made a good point about:

 

The Land of Steady Habits*

This one is directed by Nicole Holofcener  (Please Give, Enough Said, episodes of various comedy television shows such as Sex and the City and Parks and Recreation), and based on the book of the same name by Ted Thompson. It stars Ben Menselsohn as a family man in Connecticut who gets bored of tired routines, leaves his family, buys a condo, and tries to find something new. Sounds like a potential nomination similar to stuff like Sideways, or The Kids Are All Right, or The Descendants, or Philomena.

 

Vox Lux

This dramatic musical by director Brady Corbet  (The Childhood of a Leader) stars Natalie Portman, Jude Law, and Stacy Martin. It currently has a very brief and cryptic description: An uncertain set of circumstances brings unexpected success to a popstar. I'm getting a vibe that this will be a high-brow, acquired-taste type of project; but then again, it wouldn't be the first time a creatively told musical achieves Oscar success (Moulin Rouge), and movie musicals do seem to be undergoing a sort of resurgence.

 

Kursk

Directed by Thomas Vinterburg (The Hunt and Far from the Madding Crowd), and based the book A Time to Die by Robert Moore, this is a film bases on the true story of the Russian submarine that sank in 2000, killing 118 men. It stars Matthias Schoenaerts (soon to be seen in Red Sparrow), Colin Firth, Léa Sydeoux, and Max Von Sydow. This film is a question mark because its distributor is supposed to be EuropaCorp, who has recently laid off employees and made a deal with Netflix. But the film is certainly dealing with thrilling material.

 

Hotel Mumbai

*quickly says nevermind after seeing that the film would've been distributed by The Weinstein Company*

 

Cats

Now, this wasn't on the list that the blogger made. But I want to say that Tom Hooper's Cats adaption really was slotted for 2018 when it was first announced. Could it pull a Les Miserables?

 

 

Edit:

* = The Land of Steady Habits will be distributed by Netflix. What I said about the film can remain up there, but its chances have certainly taken a hit.

Edited by slambros
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So, what are the chances Black Panther is the comic book movie that finally gets a BP nomination?  I’m kind of thinking it could pull a Fury Road

 

It’s the best reviewed superhero film of all time, doesn’t feel comic booky, has social resonance, has strong performances and tech work, respected director, and precedent saying.  We’ve also had two BP nods from February over the last few years, and he academy is starting to be more inspired with their BP choices.

 

Still way to far out to say one way or another, but I think it has a solid shot.  Maybe even a chance for B Jordan to get a supporting actor nod, but that’s more iffy than Picture for BP.

 

If it does get it it’ll probably get these nods, questions next to unsure to iffy nods, I think production, costume, and sound are shoe-ins

 

Picture?

Director?

Supporting Actor? 

Screenplay?

Cinematography?

Editing?

Production

Costume

Hair and Makeup?

Score?

Song?

Sound Editing

Sound Mixing

Visual Effects?

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On 04/02/2018 at 12:01 PM, CoolioD1 said:

I think production design costumes and maybe a song Is probably the max for black panther

after seeing it i think maybe a score nod is possible as well because it's the first marvel score ever to stand out as unique in the way it does but aside from that i'll stick w/  this.

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i'm not sure how much disney gives a shit though. beyond best animated they haven't really given an awards push for any of their many acclaimed blockbusters in recent years. plus WB actually did do a full campaign for wonder woman and got nothing for it so that might put them off further.

Edited by CoolioD1
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Just now, CoolioD1 said:

i'm not sure how much disney gives a shit though. beyond best animated they haven't really given an awards push for any of their many acclaimed blockbusters in recent years. plus WB actually did do a full campaign for wonder woman and had nothing to show for it so that might put them off further.

BP is much more acclaimed than WW tho

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Just now, WrathOfHan said:

BP is much more acclaimed than WW tho

i'm talking about from their perspective it's easy to look at that and go "oh see they don't give a shit let's save those coins for more star warses" especially since the media has linked the two films together often enough.

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The better question is should we already be resigned to Annihilation not getting recognized? The reviews are absolutely there (not even divided like mother!'s were), and it sounds like the kind of movie that would benefit from being released early and sticking in people's minds. But it's likely to bomb in the box office and Paramount in general doesn't seem to give a shit about it, at least now. I'm guessing the Zodiac fate is much more likely than that of Get Out or Grand Budapest or Mad Max. 

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2 minutes ago, Jake Gittes said:

The better question is should we already be resigned to Annihilation not getting recognized? The reviews are absolutely there (not even divided like mother!'s were), and it sounds like the kind of movie that would benefit from being released early and sticking in people's minds. But it's likely to bomb in the box office and Paramount in general doesn't seem to give a shit about it, at least now. I'm guessing the Zodiac fate is much more likely than that of Get Out or Grand Budapest or Mad Max. 

Eh, maybe it gets a few tech nominations. Adapted Screenplay is way too packed this year for Garland to get another nomination.

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1 minute ago, CoolioD1 said:

yeah paramount fucked it. honestly from the sounds of it it was ready to go for an oscar release last year ala arrival but they got cold feet. maybe vfx/sound nods if it's not totally out of people's minds in a year.

They were too busy campaigning for HONG CHAU :hahaha: 

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