Best Picture Predictions - 2018

[The Panda]

7 hours ago, MovieMan89 said:

Oh please, they didn't even track box office for it. They just made sure they did the bare minimum to pander to the award shows. 

 

Look, the streaming takeover is likely inevitable, so I'm not saying Roma winning is going to be what somehow shifts the tide in that battle. I'm just not in favor of doing anything that gives it a push to speed the process up.  If theater going is dying, here's to a very long and drawn out death. 

The theater isn’t dying.

 

Just because a black and white foreign language film goes straight to streaming because there’d be minimal interest to warrant a full theatrical push doesn’t mean theaters are dying.

 

What’s changing is the type of movies people go to see in the theater vs waiting to watch at home.

[CoolioD1]

yeah if A Star is Born was a Netflix movie instead and it was hypothetically a frontrunner, i imagine that should be more concerning for exhibitors, but as i was saying roma, a movie that would've at best made like 10mil and probably wouldn't reach 2k theaters, as a frontrunner doesn't seem that big a deal to me on that end.

Edited February 24, 2019 by CoolioD1

[The Panda]

1 minute ago, CoolioD1 said:

yeah if A Star is Born was a Netflix movie instead and it was hypothetically a frontrunner, i imagine that should be more concerning for exhibitors, but as i was saying roma, a movie that would've at best made like 10mil and probably wouldn't reach 2k theaters as a frontrunner doesn't seem that big a deal to me on that end.

I think it may be in Netflix’s interest to dabble in theatrical runs in the future if they get a property like ASIB with big name stars and commercial appeal.

[CoolioD1]

i mean they've had movies with big name stars and commercial appeal, look at bird box! but they've all been bad so far so this question in relation to awards season has never come up. i'm interested to see how they handle The Irishman this year with big names actors/director/presumed awards appeal/gigantic budget.

[filmlover]

Hasn't Spike Lee also set up his next project with Netflix?

[Eric Atreides]

29 minutes ago, The Panda said:

I think it may be in Netflix’s interest to dabble in theatrical runs in the future if they get a property like ASIB with big name stars and commercial appeal.

The big problem is that the major exhibitors hate Netflix and have refused to show their movies. Granted, Bird Box and maybe To All the Boys are the only movies I could see making major money in theaters, but that's still a hurdle Netflix is forced to face.

 

But Netflix did recently join the MPAA, and maybe the relations between them and exhibitors could soften or change this year. I'm sure once The Irishman arrives, it'll find its way into a Regal or AMC. That's the one upcoming Netflix movie off the top of my head that could do well commercially

[MovieMan89]

3 hours ago, The Panda said:

The theater isn’t dying.

 

Just because a black and white foreign language film goes straight to streaming because there’d be minimal interest to warrant a full theatrical push doesn’t mean theaters are dying.

 

What’s changing is the type of movies people go to see in the theater vs waiting to watch at home.

That's just the first phase of streaming phasing out theater going. Just like color and sound were only used for select films before they became the norm. Theater going is becoming increasingly irrelevant with Gen Z and younger, and they're the ones that are the future of box office revenue. Except they don't care about going to the theater. 

[Webslinger]

7 minutes ago, MovieMan89 said:

Theater going is becoming increasingly irrelevant with Gen Z and younger

Not necessarily. I teach Gen Z and they still go to the movies about as regularly as the millennial generation did. As long as there's a social aspect to going to the movies, young people will go, especially if they live in an area where there's not much else to do.

[The Panda]

17 minutes ago, MovieMan89 said:

That's just the first phase of streaming phasing out theater going. Just like color and sound were only used for select films before they became the norm. Theater going is becoming increasingly irrelevant with Gen Z and younger, and they're the ones that are the future of box office revenue. Except they don't care about going to the theater. 

I wouldn’t necessarily say that.  We don’t go to the movies as much due to time, workloads and little pay.

 

Especially since theaters keep getting more expensive, they’re more like premium experiences for event films.  

 

Streaming isnt what’s leading to lower theater attendance, theaters premiumizing themselves is what’s doing it.  Granted, that’s not necessarily bad for theaters.  They focus less on mass attendance and more on a more expensive, quality experience for less people.

[Jake Gittes]

I was a very outside observer but Moviepass seemed to bolster moviegoing for smaller films for a few months in 2018, no? You need to get a system like that to work stable and long-term.

[filmlover]

2 minutes ago, Jake Gittes said:

I was a very outside observer but Moviepass seemed to bolster moviegoing for smaller films for a few months in 2018, no? You need to get a system like that to work stable and long-term.

I think I read in an article last year that it contributed like 10% of the box office at best for each the Best Picture nominees (or in the case of I, Tonya, close to a Best Picture nominee) that opened in the final two months of 2017. Could be wrong though.

[Webslinger]

My predictions for tonight: 

Spoiler

Picture: Green Book

Director: Alfonso Cuaron - Roma

Actress: Glenn Close - The Wife

Actor: Rami Malek - Bohemian Rhapsody

Supporting Actress: Regina King - If Beale Street Could Talk

Supporting Actor: Mahershala Ali - Green Book

Adapted Screenplay: BlacKkKlansman

Original Screenplay: Green Book

Animated Feature: Spider-Man: Into the Spider-Verse

Cinematography: Roma

Costume Design: The Favourite

Film Editing: Bohemian Rhapsody

Makeup & Hairstyling: Vice

Original Score: Black Panther

Original Song: "Shallow" - A Star Is Born

Production Design: The Favourite

Sound Editing: Bohemian Rhapsody

Sound Mixing: Bohemian Rhapsody

Visual Effects: Avengers: Infinity War

Documentary Feature: Free Solo

Foreign Language Feature: Roma

 

I guess I'm sticking with Green Book. I know lots of prognosticators are picking Roma for Picture and Favourite for Original Screenplay, but I just get the feeling that the Academy is going to go with the feel-good crowd pleaser, particularly with the dumb anti-Netflix sentiment that could hold Roma back.

 

Three of the four acting categories feel locked; if an upset happens, it'll be in Supporting Actress. I think the Weisz/Stone vote split should be enough to carry King ahead, but I won't be completely shocked no matter whose name gets called.

 

I guess Bohemian Rhapsody is going to be the leading winner of the night by this count? It feels weird, but after everything that film has already weathered... I'm surprised that more people aren't picking it in Editing between the ACE win and the narrative surrounding the film's success despite its incredibly messy production. (For the record, I think the film is over-edited to a comical degree, but most often equals best in this category.)

 

No Guts No Glory on Black Panther over Beale Street in Score. I think they'll want to toss Black Panther something and this seems like the place to do it if they're going to give The Favourite the standard lush period piece awards for Costumes and Production Design.

 

"Shallow" feels like one of the few true locks of the night. Kinda funny considering how its film's awards trajectory (sadly) cratered.

 

Nothing in Visual Effects would surprise me. I'm just guessing that they'll throw the MCU a bone as acknowledgement for the effects work on every movie they've done.

 

I'm still torn on Free Solo vs. RBG. The former appears to be gathering steam but I could totally see the latter winning as a political statement.

[MovieMan89]

2 hours ago, Jake Gittes said:

I was a very outside observer but Moviepass seemed to bolster moviegoing for smaller films for a few months in 2018, no? You need to get a system like that to work stable and long-term.

Hopefully A List keeps picking up steam. It's MoviePass done right and I think those kinds of services are the best weapon to fight losing the theatrical experience for more and more films. 

[Cmasterclay]

Whether Netflix movies deserve it or not isn't an argument I want to get in to, but if Netflix movies can qualify with like one theater of theatrical release (I'm talking most Netflix movies, not Roma I know it got a wide release yada yada yada) I don't see any reason why Jeffrey Wright can't be a nominee contender for the OG or Laura Dern can't get one for the Tale. It doesn't make sense why these are considered Emmy movies and Netflix is considered for the Oscars. Either put all of them at the Oscars or put all of them at the Emmys. And by the way, I'd be totally fine with HBO movies getting Oscar consideration! I'm just saying that if Netflix movies do, they should too.

 

I do know that every single Netflix movie I've watched I've ended up checking my phone, reading the plot ahead on Wikipedia, spacing out or getting snacks/going to the bathroom, etc. And I just never, ever enjoy them as much as watching it glued in at the theater. Enjoyed Roma and Buster Scruggs much less than I would have in theaters. It's kinda weird because I can enjoy TV shows and old movies on my TV plenty. Maybe the Netflix movies have just been boring to me and I have spaced out because of their quality and not the format. But the format allows me to space out - even bad movies I at least pay attention when I see in the theater, and come away with something. I forgot I even watched Roma, 22 July, Buster Scruggs etc. 

 

 

[RichWS]

On 2/14/2019 at 1:50 PM, RichWS said:

With all the Academy BLUNDERS this year, it feels only right they'll cap it off with a Green Book win. Honestly, it can't end any other way.

 

Yah.

[Sanjay Singh]

Just wanna remark that you have a very nice website, I like the layout it actually shines.

[cannastop]

On 12/1/2018 at 8:11 AM, filmlover said:

Green Book’s controversies never really went anywhere. Aside from the Viggo thing, that “Don Shirley’s family blasts the movie” piece from the other week never gained any traction. Movie’s probably lucky it’s only in contention for nominations and not any wins (not even for Ali).

damn