WrathOfHan's Controversial 2018 Box Office Predictions

[WrathOfHan]

June 8

Ocean’s 8: I never realized Ocean’s 8 is opening on the eighth This movie could go either way. It is hard to get a grasp on what the internet thinks of the trailer because MRAs are too busy trying to make it seem like the worst movie ever made. This will benefit from a starved market for women, but legs entirely depend on quality. Incredible and Jurassic World should be taking up this movie’s demo as well being four-quadrant blockbusters, so its quality is critical. For now, I’ll predict a total around Ghostbusters 2016.  40/120 (3x)

[filmlover]

I'm both excited for and dreading Ocean's 8: excited for the movie, dreading the inevitable embarrassment that a section of our gender will bring to it for no good reason whatsoever.

Edited January 16, 2018 by filmlover

[WrathOfHan]

June 15

Incredibles 2: I don’t know if you guys have taken a look at the trailer views, but they are pretty fucking incredible! The teaser has over 78M views after two months, which is one of the most-viewed trailers in the history of YouTube (maybe second biggest behind Infinity War). There is clearly interest for this movie beyond internet circles, and some of you are sleeping on this. Chances are this becomes one of Pixar’s three highest grossing films domestically, and it may even become their highest grossing depending how July fares. Given my level of excitement for this, I absolutely must make a CONTROVERSIAL prediction: this is beating Finding Dory. 140/500 (3.57x)

 

Tag: Because there is no trailer yet, it is hard to make an accurate prediction. This New Line comedy involves a lot of unproven talent behind the scenes: the director has never made any theatrical films before, and the writers have few credits to their names. As I said with Game Night, WB’s track record with comedies has been pretty shitty lately, and given the onslaught of releases starting at the end of June, this needs to stand out for stellar legs, which probably won’t happen. 10/30 (3x)

[DAJK]

YES at that "Incredible" prediction

[filmlover]

I'm so glad you finally brought the "that shit cray cray"

[aabattery]

[a2k]

On 1/7/2018 at 11:40 AM, aabattery said:

Rampage as WB's highest grossing film of 2018?

O8 over Rampage dom imo 

Spoiler

 

[Eric Atreides]

44 minutes ago, WrathOfHan said:

June 15

Incredibles 2: I don’t know if you guys have taken a look at the trailer views, but they are pretty fucking incredible! The teaser has over 78M views after two months, which is one of the most-viewed trailers in the history of YouTube (maybe second biggest behind Infinity War). There is clearly interest for this movie beyond internet circles, and some of you are sleeping on this. Chances are this becomes one of Pixar’s three highest grossing films domestically, and it may even become their highest grossing depending how July fares. Given my level of excitement for this, I absolutely must make a CONTROVERSIAL prediction: this is beating Finding Dory. 140/500 (3.57x)

 

Y'ALL 👏 ARE 👏 ASKING 👏 TO 👏 BE 👏 DISAPPOINTED

 

[Porthos]

28 minutes ago, CoolEric258 said:

Y'ALL 👏 ARE 👏 ASKING 👏 TO 👏 BE 👏 DISAPPOINTED

 

(stolen from the Black Panther thread )

[Eric Atreides]

1 hour ago, a2knet said:

O8 over Rampage dom imo 

  Reveal hidden contents

 

O8 won't make as much as MM2 though. 

Spoiler

 

P.S. Join my club.

 

 

[WrathOfHan]

June 22

Jurassic World: Fallen Kingdom: Jurassic World was a surprising hit that CRUMBLED all our expectations. For Fallen Kingdom, our expectations are….. mixed, to say the least. The trailer drew a lot of interest online, but not all feedback was positive. Many are saying the film looks pointless, generic, and just plain bad, while others want that glorious dino action. What camp will general audiences fall into? It’s hard to say right now, but I’m banking on there being a fairly substantial drop from the first. I won’t go to the under-300M or even sub-350M lengths some are predicting because June is incredibly light on live action blockbusters, but if this was releasing in a more competitive time, those ranges would probably have a better chance at happening. 130/355 (2.73x)

[Giesi]

I can‘t see JW2 open to „just“ 130M, 170M seems about right with a total around 480M, most of biggest summer movies are already out, JW showed how much appeal the franchise has.

[WrathOfHan]

June 29

I Feel Pretty: *reads synopsis* Yeah, are we sure this is going to go over well? I can already see the thinkpieces for an Amy Schumer comedy where she believes she’s beautiful while the movie implies she isn’t. Premise aside, this has quite a few things going against it. For starters, Schumer is coming off of Snatched, which was a critical flop and box office disappointment. The writers/directors have a VERY poor track record having written The Vow, How to Be Single, and Valentine’s Day among other films. Finally, this is releasing a few weeks after Ocean’s 8 and a few weeks before Mamma Mia! Being stuck between two movies targeting the same demo is never a good thing, and Here We Go Again will cripple any late legs this may develop. Then again, who’s to say this will have legs to begin with? 10/25 (2.5x)

 

Sicario 2: Soldado: Sequels that nobody asked for have had very bad luck at the box office over the past few years. Many concepts are only good for a single movie, and any continuation will seem like a cash grab. When this sequel was announced, many had a very bad feeling about it as Villeneuve was not returning. However, Taylor Sheridan is coming fresh off Wind River and Hell or High Water, and the trailer for this is phenomenal. The trailer has 3.7M views on YouTube after nearly a month, but Sony is already plastering it in theaters. Given this is their main live-action push for the summer, I expect them to continue the aggressive marketing. The first Sicario was a nice mid-size hit, but given the lack of adult dramas over the summer and Sheridan’s recent track record, I’m expecting a similar increase as John Wick to John Wick: Chapter 2. 25/90 (3.6x)

 

Uncle Drew: This feels like something that will work better on paper than the final product. Uncle Drew is based off the very popular web series and will feature many NBA players, but the behind the scenes crew involved has a poor track record. If Lionsgate markets this properly during March Madness, the OW might approach 20M, but I’m not expecting strong legs here. 15/35 (2.33x)

 

Valley Girl: A musical take on the Nic Cage joint, this remake stars Jessica Rothe and……. Logan Paul? Oh boy. MGM better hope this Logan Paul shit goes away by the time they need to start marketing this, because the suicide forest video is still echoing across the internet. On the other hand, Logan Paul has a dedicated audience that is supporting him no matter what, and musicals are on the rebound with The Greatest Showman and La La Land. The director, Rachel Goldenberg, has directed many TV shows, and one of the screenwriters for this is Jenny Lumet, who wrote Rachel Getting Married and……. The Mummy. There’s certainly breakout potential here, but moving this a few months back to avoid Mamma Mia! and any potential continuation of the Logan Paul drama would be wise. 15/45 (3x)

[filmlover]

I've seen the Sicario 2 trailer before every other movie since Christmas. Sony going all in.

[WrathOfHan]

July 6

Ant-Man and the Wasp: The first Ant-Man was a shockingly good (depending who you talk to) superhero movie after all the production troubles, though it remains one of the MCU’s lowest grossing films. Phase 3 has been providing steady increases for sequels, and that trend should not stop with this. It’s the major blockbuster of July and coming hot off of Infinity War and Black Panther. One of the original’s biggest assets was its legs, which were some of the best the MCU has ever seen. While the legs on this one won’t be quite as big due to competition, getting Homecoming-like legs should not be an issue. 90/250 (2.77x)

 

The Purge: The Island: Had I reached this date before The Last Key released, I would have been predicting a fairly low total because it feels like buzz with this series has faded somewhat. Insidious is a MUCH weaker franchise than The Purge yet still managed to have an increase with the latest installment. An increase won’t happen here because of The Nun one week later, but staying above the first is the goal. 25/31/70 (2.8x from 3 day/2.26x from 5 day)

[Fancyarcher]

Ant-Man and The Wasp is going to make a lot more then its predecessor. 

Edited January 20, 2018 by Fancyarcher

[WrathOfHan]

July 13

Hotel Transylvania 3: Summer Vacation: There’s a different kind of monster movie releasing on Friday the 13^th this year! Hotel Transylvania 2 increased a lot more than anyone expected from the first. Although many of us are expecting it to be the lowest grossing in the series, the distance between this and the first should not be major. This is the last animated movie outside of Teen Titans (which won’t be a threat) until late September, and Incredibles will be in its fifth week. The race for #1 this weekend will be a tight race between this and The Nun, but ultimately, this should outgross its final total. 40/140 (3.5x)

 

The Nun: Annabelle: Creation was a trash movie (don’t @ me), but it somehow surpassed its predecessor and was only a few hundred thousand behind The Conjuring 2. The Nun’s origins were teased in Creation with both a shoehorned reference during the movie and a post-credit scene. New Line and James Wan have a masterplan for this universe, and with how well horror is breaking out recently, the trend will continue here. Given the busy schedule and Friday the 13^th opening, legs will be closer to The Conjuring 2 than the first or Creation, but the potential for a gigantic OW is here. 45/115 (2.56x)

 

Skyscraper: Are we sure Universal is keeping this here? June 1 is now wide open, and San Andreas had great luck on that weekend. Audiences WILL want to see Dwayne Johnson as an ex-FBI agent turned not-firefighter! Rawson Thurber has a strong history of making crowdpleasing hits, so this will be fine wherever it lands, but there absolutely needs to be some breathing room in July. My prediction would be a bit higher if it was on a different date. 35/100 (2.86x)

[MCKillswitch123]

Quote

(don't @ me)

@WrathOfHan

[FantasticBeasts]

26 minutes ago, WrathOfHan said:

July 13

Hotel Transylvania 3: Summer Vacation: There’s a different kind of monster movie releasing on Friday the 13^th this year! Hotel Transylvania 2 increased a lot more than anyone expected from the first. Although many of us are expecting it to be the lowest grossing in the series, the distance between this and the first should not be major. This is the last animated movie outside of Teen Titans (which won’t be a threat) until late September, and Incredibles will be in its fifth week. The race for #1 this weekend will be a tight race between this and The Nun, but ultimately, this should outgross its final total. 40/140 (3.5x)

 

The Nun: Annabelle: Creation was a trash movie (don’t @ me), but it somehow surpassed its predecessor and was only a few hundred thousand behind The Conjuring 2. The Nun’s origins were teased in Creation with both a shoehorned reference during the movie and a post-credit scene. New Line and James Wan have a masterplan for this universe, and with how well horror is breaking out recently, the trend will continue here. Given the busy schedule and Friday the 13^th opening, legs will be closer to The Conjuring 2 than the first or Creation, but the potential for a gigantic OW is here. 45/115 (2.56x)

 

Skyscraper: Are we sure Universal is keeping this here? June 1 is now wide open, and San Andreas had great luck on that weekend. Audiences WILL want to see Dwayne Johnson as an ex-FBI agent turned not-firefighter! Rawson Thurber has a strong history of making crowdpleasing hits, so this will be fine wherever it lands, but there absolutely needs to be some breathing room in July. My prediction would be a bit higher if it was on a different date. 35/100 (2.86x)

@WrathOfHan

[Alli]

July is extremly weak this year.