WrathOfHan's Controversial 2018 Box Office Predictions

[Alli]

20 hours ago, WrathOfHan said:

April 6

 

 

A Quiet Place: Listen closely to what I am about to predict because Paramount might have cooked up the next big horror movie. A Quiet Place has such a unique concept, and the trailer is incredibly effective. Both times I’ve gotten it in theaters, audiences shut the hell up and pay attention. On YouTube, the trailer is at 5M views on Paramount’s channel after nearly two months, which is fantastic for an original horror movie. I think this will easily open to 30M and could breach 40M as being the first event film in the genre since the fall. However, I’m a bit concerned for its legs. The New Mutants opens the following weekend and will undoubtedly be even bigger than this film. As for Cloverfield two weeks later….. well, let’s just say I don’t think Paramount would put these two so close together if both were good movies. Still, I expect it to co-exist fine with The New Mutants. 35/115 (3.29x)

And ive just found your Mummy over 300M prediction for 2018.  This will be lucky to make 30M total.

[DAJK]

On 2018-01-02 at 5:19 PM, WrathOfHan said:

January 5

 

Insidious: The Last Key: The Insidious franchise has undoubtedly lost most of its luster as newer, hotter horror franchises have released, and I don’t think anyone was really clamoring for a fourth installment. However, January horror films always pull in solid numbers, especially on their OW. This year, we had Split at 40M (which Insidious obviously won’t hit) and The Bye Bye Man with 13.5M. Last year, it was The Forest with 12.7M and The Boy with 10.8M. 2015 probably provides the best comparison with Woman in Black 2, which made 15M on the same weekend Insidious is opening. Insidious undoubtedly has more demand than that did, because who was really asking for a sequel to WIB? 15M is a good starting point, and legs should be decent with MLK the following weekend. 15/40 (2.67x)

 

I had something written for Molly's Game, but it's out of date. Stay tuned to whatever daily thread for a forecast  

And so it's begins...

 

To, can't blame you too much for this one. Buzz seemed nonexistent and online tracking didn't suggest much over high teens. Nobody really saw this doing 25M opening weekend

[the beast]

 January 2018 Box Office Prediction For Wide Releases:

 

January 5:

Insidious 4: $26m/$56m (2.15x): 

 

January 12:

The Post: $35m/$123m (3.5x): Should be a breakout and has so many things going for it like its amazing cast and great reviews and hardly any negatives.

 

Paddington 2: $25m/$105m (4.2x): This has out of this world reviews and should have great to Fantastic WOM and should counter programmer Jumanji well. Also has builded up momentum from the Fantastic Paddington 1.

 

Proud Mary: $14m/$45m (3.2x): 

 

The Commuter: $10m/$25m (2.5x): 

 

January 19:

12 Strong: $15m/$40m (2.66x): 

 

Den of Thieves: $5m/$12m (2.4x):

 

Forever My Girl: $3m/$8m (2.66x)

 

January 26: 

Maze Runner 3: $30m/$80m (2.66x):  Seems to be a consistent franchise box office wise and should do about the same as the last movie.

 

Month Gross: $850m+

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

[nick64]

1 hour ago, Alli said:

And ive just found your Mummy over 300M prediction for 2018.  This will be lucky to make 30M total.

You are really underestimating the hype of this.

[Eric Duncan]

Wow, the idea of Pacific Rim 2 beating A Wrinkle in Time is really laughable and weird, Han. I don't think anything so far can top that--

6 hours ago, WrathOfHan said:

April 13

The New Mutants: No other movie is daring to face this, and it’s for a good reason. The New Mutants represents a new endeavor in the comic book movie craze: horror. Both genres are coming off record-breaking years, and people want new, unique movies. This fits that bill and is releasing on the perfect date. Friday the 13^th always leads to big grosses for horror movies, but how will it affect a superhero horror movie? I’m betting a lot! It also helps that the rest of April and May look a bit light on competition (though it will drop a bit in its second weekend and May 4). Don’t be surprised if this comes close to Logan. 70/200 (2.86x)

[YM!]

Actually I can see $200M for New Mutants. It has the advantages of a starved market and could breakout due to the horror aspect.

[DAJK]

11 minutes ago, YourMother the Edgelord said:

Actually I can see $200M for New Mutants. It has the advantages of a starved market and could breakout due to the horror aspect.

Fox had better get their asses in gear for marketing. Otherwise, I'd say 35/110 but if they can pick it up in the next few months Han's prediction isn't totally unreachable

[WrathOfHan]

April 20

Cloverfield 3: I mentioned in my Quiet Place prediction that Paramount would not be placing these two movies so close together if both were good, and there is strong reason to believe this is going to suck. Cloverfield 3/God Particle/whatever the fuck this is called was supposed to be out last February until it got pushed back to October 27 against Jigsaw. A couple of months before that date, it got pushed again to February 2, and a few days ago it was confirmed to be here on April 20. That’s over a year of schedule shuffling, which is NEVER a good sign for any movie. Being part of the Cloverfield series will help draw some curiosity, but coming after A Quiet Place and The New Mutants and one week before Truth or Dare will leave audiences horror’d out. My original prediction in last year’s writeup was 35/90 on the October 27 date, but now I question if it will even finish with what I was predicting for the OW. 15/40 (2.67x)

 

Overboard: Do not doubt the power of Eugenio Derbez. Last year, How to Be a Latin Lover shocked everyone and opened to 12.3M in barely in 1,100 theaters against F8’s third weekend; it eventually finished with over 32M. Prior to that, Instructions Not Included was an even bigger hit in 2013 with nearly 45M domestically. Like Latin Lover, Overboard is being released under Lionsgate’s Hispanic label Pantelion. I’m assuming this will get more theaters than either of those two did thanks to Anna Faris being the co-lead and expect it to reach Instructions Not Included levels. 17/44 (2.59x)

 

Rampage: GEORGE!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!! Rampage might FINALLY break the video game movie curse! I don’t think anyone is expecting something mind-blowing or high quality, but people DO want to see Dwayne Johnson fighting gigantic monsters. He’ll be coming fresh off of Jumanji, and this is the first action film since Ready Player One. Trailer views are also looking strong with 23M on WB’s channel after one and a half months. The Rock brought a lot of success to Fast Five right before the start of the summer season back in 2011, and I expect the same to happen here on a smaller scale……. if it keeps the release date. EC recently brought up the possibility of this moving because Cloverfield is hanging onto IMAX screens and it may be too close to Jumanji. I could maybe see it being moved back a week to the Fast Five date but have no clue where else it could go. As is, this should be a smash hit anywhere it releases, and San Andreas numbers seem likely. 55/150 (2.73x)

 

Super Troopers 2: This is going to be a veeeeeeeery niche movie. A cult hit, the original adjusts to 28M, and there is plenty of interest for a sequel among film circles. However, the trailer views (2.2M after nearly five months) don’t indicate something that will draw in new audiences. There’s not a whole lot to say on this, really. 8/20 (2.5x)

Edited January 7, 2018 by WrathOfHan

[Eric Duncan]

Maybe it's because I'm on a Jumanji high, but I think there's a decent chance Rampage can go above $200M. Trailer views are stupid high, it fits Johnson's wheelhouse, I'm not super high on Quiet Place and New Mutants like you are, and the only thing it has to deal with for an entire month is Infinity War, which could very well be a Civil War and be inaccessible or uninteresting for newcomers and casual fans, and since it's the only alternative until Memorial Day... (Yes, I know there's Sldenderman and some dumb Melissa McCarthy and Johnny Knoxville comedy, but...c'mon.)

[Eric Duncan]

Also, even with the Cloverfield date change, I think Rampage will stay put and keep the IMAX screens. Ninjago was originally slated for IMAX, but then Kingsman got it when it moved to September, and Jumanji was supposed to get IMAX in its July slot, but gave it to Star Wars when it moved to Christmas. And I don't know how these deals and negotiations work, but I'm pretty sure IMAX has power in what they screen, and they would probably pick the Dwayne Johnson movie over a film based on a niche property.

[Fancyarcher]

Unless it shit, Rampage definitely feels like a potential breakout and the most successful video game movie to date. Not just because of The Rock, but because the trailer made it look like stupid fun, and its release date is also good. I'm thinking 50 / 145m myself. 

Edited January 7, 2018 by Fancyarcher

[a2k]

On 1/3/2018 at 2:54 PM, a2knet said:

Will echo the sentiment that 200m or even 150m is too high for The Post.

 

Looking at some movies with similarity in one or more of setting, theme, cast, genre, director, demographics: Spotlight 45m, Bridge of Spies did 72m, Sully did 125m, Wonder is on track for 135m, Hidden Figures did 170m, Lincoln did 180m.

 

I feel Streep and female-centric plot will help and think a fun target is Spotlight + BoS = 45 + 72 = 117m or say 120m.

Find it tough to go higher than 30 ow / 4x / 120m dom.

Will take back my views on The Post's BO. Going ALL-IN with 5-6x multiplier 150-180 dom.

Edited January 7, 2018 by a2knet

[YM!]

I’m thinking Rampage has a small shot at $250M.

[aabattery]

Rampage as WB's highest grossing film of 2018?

[WrathOfHan]

4 minutes ago, aabattery said:

Rampage as WB's highest grossing film of 2018?

@WeneedtotalkaboutKevin thoughts?

[YM!]

14 minutes ago, aabattery said:

Rampage as WB's highest grossing film of 2018?

I can see this happening.

[filmlover]

On ‎1‎/‎2‎/‎2018 at 8:19 PM, WrathOfHan said:

January 5

 

Insidious: The Last Key: The Insidious franchise has undoubtedly lost most of its luster as newer, hotter horror franchises have released, and I don’t think anyone was really clamoring for a fourth installment. However, January horror films always pull in solid numbers, especially on their OW. This year, we had Split at 40M (which Insidious obviously won’t hit) and The Bye Bye Man with 13.5M. Last year, it was The Forest with 12.7M and The Boy with 10.8M. 2015 probably provides the best comparison with Woman in Black 2, which made 15M on the same weekend Insidious is opening. Insidious undoubtedly has more demand than that did, because who was really asking for a sequel to WIB? 15M is a good starting point, and legs should be decent with MLK the following weekend. 15/40 (2.67x)

 

I had something written for Molly's Game, but it's out of date. Stay tuned to whatever daily thread for a forecast  

I can already tell this is gonna be a rough year for you, bro.

[WrathOfHan]

Just now, filmlover said:

I can already tell this is gonna be a rough year for you, bro.

tbf nobody expected Insidious to do this well. NOBODY.

[Jonwo]

9 hours ago, WrathOfHan said:

@WeneedtotalkaboutKevin thoughts?

$60/130/420m...

 

Edited January 7, 2018 by Jonwo

[TwoMisfits]

27 minutes ago, WrathOfHan said:

tbf nobody expected Insidious to do this well. NOBODY.

I'd suggest you up your projections on any millenial focused movie in the 1st 3-6 months of the year by 10-30% minimum...I think you have to think about this whole year a bit differently, now that subscriptions are a "thing" in the US theater system...