Weekend Thread - Insidious 29.6M, Jumanji 37.2M, TLJ 23.7M, TGS 13.8M, PP3 10.3

[Brainbug]

35 minutes ago, baumer said:

 

But horror isn't concerned about Oscar glory.  They are made really inexpensively and turn a profit for the studio.  The Insidious films have always been really inexpensive.  Doubt it changed this time around....EDIT...10 mill budget...so that's good for a sequel.

 

I know that was a parody post

[MovieMan89]

If Jumanji hits 30 for the weekend, I'd say 300 is locked. And if it followed Sing's holds this weekend it would pull a massive 40m. 320+ would be on the table in that case. 

Edited January 5, 2018 by MovieMan89

[TwoMisfits]

To all those poo-pooing Insidious's chance to pull an upset on TLJ (and I'll start with saying I'm not confident in badly reviewed 4-quels, but let me sell the chance)...

1. Moviepass is 75% millenials - that is this movie's core audience...and this core audience hasn't had a new movie for 2 weeks (with last weekend pretty much only expanding limiteds), so they might be ready for a new one

2. Horror hasn't been around for months...built-up demand for anything

3. College students are the ones still out of school - it's still like the holidays for them, and this movie can be "one last hurrah"

4. The core audience is more likely to actually leave the house in ice...TLJ's 35+ audience is gonna open the door and say "nah, it's a Netflix night", but Insidious' 17-30 audience is gonna be like "ahhh, I need out of this house - I'll watch anything"...

5. TLJ lost some of its showings/screens...a not insignificant number of theaters either have now '"skimmed" the rules or flat out broken the agreements...fewer showings are fewer opportunities to rack up bored money...and more likelihood of bigger drops...

6. Jumanji is firmly the family choice - Insidious will firmly be the 17-30 choice, and some of those expanding limiteds might become the old person choice...

 

So, don't be surprised to see Insidious go higher than expected, and maybe high enough to take out TLJ...I mean it already has a $2M head start...

Edited January 5, 2018 by TwoMisfits

[John Marston]

https://twitter.com/ChinaBoxOffice/status/949298772919685121

 

THE LAST JEDI earned just ¥62M ($9.5M) on opening day including midnights, well below both The Force Awakens (¥212M) and Rogue One (¥72M). Word of mouth is dismal and worse than the previous films and The Last Jedi could fail to reach even $40M total.

[That One Girl]

Super excited for Paddington 2 next weekend

[Blaze Heatnix]

Insidious 4 is probably behave like Jigsaw.

 

People were saying Jigsaw would flop and underperform, but Jigsaw actually performed good even with competition. Jigsaw ended its run with 102 million worldwide. I would expect something similar to Insidious 4.

 

 

[Valonqar]

6 minutes ago, John Marston said:

https://twitter.com/ChinaBoxOffice/status/949298772919685121

 

THE LAST JEDI earned just ¥62M ($9.5M) on opening day including midnights, well below both The Force Awakens (¥212M) and Rogue One (¥72M). Word of mouth is dismal and worse than the previous films and The Last Jedi could fail to reach even $40M total.

At least TLJ China BO is all WOM and no calendar, etc. 

Edited January 5, 2018 by Valonqar

[redfirebird2008]

12 minutes ago, MovieMan89 said:

If Jumanji hits 30 for the weekend, I'd say 300 is locked. And if it followed Sing's holds this weekend it would pull a massive 40m. 320+ would be on the table in that case. 

 

Probably will be hard to pull Sing's 65-75% increases on Friday/Saturday. Jumanji held much better during weekdays due to more schools out this year.

 

Tuesday to Tuesday: Sing was -65%, Jumanji was -40%

Wednesday to Wednesday: Sing was -77%, Jumanji was -54%

Thursday to Thursday: Sing was -79%, Jumanji was -60%

 

Anything over $30m would be a really good result. $35m would be pretty awesome if it happens.

[Blaze Heatnix]

8 minutes ago, John Marston said:

https://twitter.com/ChinaBoxOffice/status/949298772919685121

 

THE LAST JEDI earned just ¥62M ($9.5M) on opening day including midnights, well below both The Force Awakens (¥212M) and Rogue One (¥72M). Word of mouth is dismal and worse than the previous films and The Last Jedi could fail to reach even $40M total.

 

Uh-oh. Just imagine all these guys voting on Rotten Tomatoes!!! It'll drop even more.

 

I can't wait to hear the next damage control. Chinese Bots, I guess!!!! 

[Krissykins]

White Noise started the “first release of new year being a horror trend in 2005”.

 

We’ve had one every year apart from 2007. 

 

2018: Insidious 4

2017: Underworld 5 $13.7m

2016: The Forest $12.7m

2015: The Woman in Black 2 $15m

2014: The Marked Ones $18.3m

2013: Texas Chainsaw $21.7m

2012: The Devil Inside $33.7m

2011: Season of the Witch $10.6m

2010: Daybreakers $15.1m 

2009: The Unborn $19.8m

2008: One Missed call $12.6m

2007: n/a

2006: Hostel $19.6m

2005: White Noise $24.1m

Edited January 5, 2018 by Krissykins

[YM!]

11 minutes ago, John Marston said:

https://twitter.com/ChinaBoxOffice/status/949298772919685121

 

THE LAST JEDI earned just ¥62M ($9.5M) on opening day including midnights, well below both The Force Awakens (¥212M) and Rogue One (¥72M). Word of mouth is dismal and worse than the previous films and The Last Jedi could fail to reach even $40M total.

Ouch.

[MovieMan89]

11 minutes ago, John Marston said:

https://twitter.com/ChinaBoxOffice/status/949298772919685121

 

THE LAST JEDI earned just ¥62M ($9.5M) on opening day including midnights, well below both The Force Awakens (¥212M) and Rogue One (¥72M). Word of mouth is dismal and worse than the previous films and The Last Jedi could fail to reach even $40M total.

Don't movies typically get like 2.5x multis in China, even if well liked? TLJ may not touch 25m if it opened with 9.5. Disney may as well cancel Solo and IX's release in China, and I'm only half joking. 

[Krissykins]

Only two of them: Daybreakers and Hostel are fresh on rotten tomatoes.

 

The worst are One Missed call (0%) and Michael Keaton’s White Noise (8%). 

[redfirebird2008]

1 minute ago, MovieMan89 said:

Don't movies typically get like 2.5x multis in China, even if well liked? TLJ may not touch 25m if it opened with 9.5. Disney may as well cancel Solo and IX's release in China, and I'm only half joking. 

 

Do you mean 2.5 from opening day or weekend? 9.5 is the day number, not the weekend number.

[MovieMan89]

Just now, redfirebird2008 said:

 

Do you mean 2.5 from opening day or weekend? 9.5 is the day number, not the weekend number.

Yeah, my bad I thought that was OW. I was wondering how it could possibly be that much of a disaster, lol. 

[MovieMan89]

Though with a total of 35-40m, you have to wonder are Solo and IX even going to crack 20m there? 

[redfirebird2008]

1 minute ago, MovieMan89 said:

Yeah, my bad I thought that was OW. I was wondering how it could possibly be that much of a disaster, lol. 

 

I would guess it ends up around 30-35 total in China. At least they aren't spending money on distribution and promotion for that market. They have plenty of other markets to make big profits.

[Rebeccas]

Star Wars Episode IX: Days of Future Past coming..

[DAJK]

I keep seeing adds for Den of Thieves on the forum main page, which, on this site, seems like some kind of sick joke 

[MovieMan89]

How much does Jedi likely have to add OS outside of China?