2018 100M Films - 33 down, 3 to go! (Big update)

[Blankments]

600M

1. Black Panther - March 18

500M

1. Black Panther - March 4

400M

1. Black Panther - February 25

300M

1. Black Panther - February 23

200M

1. Black Panther - February 18

100M

1. Black Panther - February 17
2. Peter Rabbit - March 17

[MCKillswitch123]

By March 21st last year, we already had Split, Lego Batman, Fifty Shades Darker, Get Out, Logan, Kong and Beauty And The Beast on the club. This year, we only have 2 of them, w/a potential 3rd by next weekend w/Freed crossing. Granted, one of them a 600M+, possibly 700M maker, but still.

 

Some sad stuff going on in these 1st 3 months of the year (sans Black Panther, of course).

Edited March 21, 2018 by MCKillswitch123

[aabattery]

I propose we consider Black Panther as six 100M films, all stacked on top of one another in a proverbial trench-coat.

[That One Girl]

1. Fifty Shades Freed
2. Ready Player One
3. A Quiet Place
4. Rampage
5. Avengers: Infinity War
6. Deadpool 2
7. Solo: A Star Wars Story
8. Ocean's 8
9. Incredibles 2
10. Jurassic World: Fallen Kingdom
11. Uncle Drew
12. Ant-Man and the Wasp
13. Hotel Transylvania 3: Summer Vacation
14. Skyscraper
15. Mamma Mia! Here We Go Again
16. Mission: Impossible - Fallout
17. Christopher Robin
18. The Spy Who Dumped Me
19. The Nun
20. The Predator
21. Venom
22. First Man
23. Halloween
24. X-Men: Dark Phoenix
25. The Nutcracker and the Four Realms
26. Dr. Seuss' The Grinch
27. Fantastic Beasts: The Crimes of Grindelwald
28. Ralph Breaks the Internet: Wreck-it Ralph 2
29. Creed 2
30. Mortal Engines
31. Spider-Man: Into the Spider-Verse
32. Aquaman
33. Bohemian Rhapsody
34. Mary Poppins Returns

[MCKillswitch123]

 

[Eric Atreides]

 

1. Ready Player One

2. A Quiet Place

3. Rampage

4. Avengers: Infinity War

5. Deadpool 2

6. Solo: A Star Wars Story

7. Ocean's 8

8. Incredibles 2

9. Jurassic World: Fallen Kingdom

10. Sicario, Day of the Soldado

11. Ant-Man and the Wasp

12. Hotel Transylvania 3: Summer Vacation

13. Skyscraper

14. Mamma Mia: Here We Go Again!

15. Mission: Impossible - Fallout

16. Christopher Robin

17. The Nun

18. Night School

19. Venom

20. First Man

21. Halloween

22. X-Men: Dark Phoenix

23. The Nutcracker and the Four Realms

24. The Grinch

25. Fantastic Beasts: The Crimes of Grindelwald

26. Ralph Breaks the Internet: Wreck-It Ralph 2

27. Spider-Man: Into the Spider-Verse

28. Aquaman

29. Holmes & Watson

30. Mary Poppins Returns

 

Yeah, I don't see this happening.

[MCKillswitch123]

Ready Player One is now a lock for the club as well. That puts it at 4.

 

Very unlikely outside chance for both I Can Only Imagine and A Wrinkle In Time, but for now, let's count them out.

 

In underline, I'll have the locks to join 100M; in italic, I'll have the dark horses that I wouldn't qualify as locks or strong possibilities, but possibilities to join:

1. Fifty Shades Freed
2. Peter Rabbit
3. Black Panther
4. Ready Player One
5. A Quiet Place
6. Blockers
7. Rampage
8. Avengers: Infinity War
9. Deadpool 2
10. Solo: A Star Wars Story
11. Action Point
12. Ocean's 8
13. The Incredibles 2
14. Tag
15. Jurassic World: Fallen Kingdom
16. Uncle Drew
17. Ant-Man And The Wasp
18. Hotel Transylvania 3: Summer Vacation
19. Skyscraper
20. Mamma Mia! Here We Go Again
21. Mission: Impossible, Fallout
22. Teen Titans Go! To The Movies
23. Christopher Robin
24. The Spy Who Dumped Me
25. Crazy Rich Asians
26. The Happytime Murders
27. The Nun
28. The Predator
29. The House With A Clock In Its Walls
30. Night School
31. A Star Is Born
32. Venom
33. First Man
34. Halloween
35. Mowgli
36. The Nutcracker And The Four Realms
37. Bohemian Rhapsody
38. The Grinch
39. The Girl In The Spider's Web
40. Fantastic Beasts: The Crimes Of Grindelwald
41. Widows
42. Creed II
43. Ralph Breaks The Internet: Wreck-It Ralph 2
44. Mortal Engines
45. Spider-Man: Into The Spider-Verse
46. Alita: Battle Angel
47. Holmes And Watson
48. Aquaman
49. Bumblebee: The Movie
50. Mary Poppins Returns
51. Valley Girl

Only 33 of these are locks/strong possibilities, and only 15 of them are locks. So, yeah, it will need to cling on to as many breakouts as it can to break the record.

[WrathOfHan]

1. Black Panther
2. Peter Rabbit
3. Fifty Shades Freed
4. Ready Player One
5. A Quiet Place
6. Rampage
7. Avengers: Infinity War
8. Deadpool 2
9. Solo: A Star Wars Story
10. Action Point
11. Ocean's 8
12. Incredibles 2
13. Jurassic World: Fallen Kingdom
14. Ant-Man and the Wasp
15. Hotel Transylvania 3: Summer Vacation
16. Skyscraper
17. Mamma Mia! Here We Go Again
18. Mission: Impossible - Fallout
19. Christopher Robin
20. The Nun
21. The Predator
22. Night School
23. A Star Is Born
24. Venom
25. First Man
26. Halloween
27. Bohemian Rhapsody
28. The Nutcracker and the Four Realms
29. Dr. Suess' The Grinch
30. Fantastic Beasts: The Crimes of Grindelwald
31. Creed 2
32. Widows
33. Spider-Man: Into the Spider-Verse
34. Alita: Battle Angel
35. Aquaman
36. Bumblebee: The Movie
37. Mary Poppins Returns
38. AD Astra
39. Dick Cheney

 

 

Edited April 1, 2018 by WrathOfHan

[Dandeak2000]

Updated Predictions (13/4/2018)

 

1. Black Panther - February 17

2. Peter Rabbit - March 17

3. Fifty Shades Freed - March 23

4. Ready Player One - April 10

5. A Quiet Place - April 19

6. Avengers: Infinity War - April 27/28

7. Deadpool 2 - May 19/20

8. Solo: A Star Wars Story - May 26/27

9. The Incredibles 2 - June 17

10. Jurassic World: Fallen Kingdom - June 23/24

11. Ant-Man and the Wasp - July 11/12

12. Hotel Transylvania 3: Summer Vacation - July 22-25

13. Mission Impossible - Fallout - August 3-5

14. Christopher Robin - September 2

15. The Nun - September 16-21

16. Venom - October 19

17. Mowgli - October 31

18. Halloween - November 4

19. Dark Phoenix - November 9-11

20. The Nutcracker and the Four Realms - November 15

21. Dr Seuss' The Grinch - November 16-18

22. Fantastic Beasts: The Crimes of Grindelwald - November 19/20

23. Ralph Breaks the Internet: Wreck-It Ralph 2 - November 30

24. Creed 2 - December 16

25. Spider-Man: Into the Spider-Verse - December 23

26. Aquaman - December 23-25

27. Mary Poppins Returns - December 27/28

28. Bumblebee - January 13

 

Other Chances

29. Ocean's 8 (20-30%)

30. The First Purge (0-7.5%)

31. Skyscraper (10-20%)

32. The Equalizer 2 (10-20%)

33. Mamma Mia: Here We Go Again! (35-45%)

34. The Predator (15-25%)

35. First Man (25-35%)

36. Goosebumps 2 (5-15%)

37. Bohemian Rhapsody (5-15%)

38. Mortal Engines (15-25%)

39. Alita: Battle Angel (0-5%)

40. Holmes & Watson (15-25%)

 

Maybe a couple Oscar films in there too.

 

Spoiler

FOR FUN!

 

2019

 

1. Glass

2. The LEGO Movie 2

3. Dark Phoenix

4. How to Train Your Dragon 3

5. Captain Marvel

6. Godzilla 2

7. Dumbo

8. Shazam!

9. Untitled Avengers

10. Aladdin

11. The Secret Life of Pets 2

12. Men In Black Untitled

13. Toy Story 4

14. Spider-Man: Homecoming

15. The Lion King

16. Fast & Furious Spin-Off

17. Terminator Project

18. The New Mutants

19. It: Chapter 2

20. Wonder Woman 2

21. Death on the Nile

22. Frozen 2

23. Masters of the Universe

24. Star Wars: Episode IX

25. Wicked 

 

Possibilities

 

26. Hellboy

27. Silver and Black

28. Untitled Jordan Peele Project (3/15)

29. Detective Picachu

30. John Wick: Chapter 3

31. Minecraft

32. Charlie's Angels

33. Dora the Explorer

34. The Angry Birds Movie 2

 

Edited April 13, 2018 by Mike Hunt

[xxoo]

one thing is clear its very hard to achieve 100Mil.  Rampage will definitely find it hard

[Krissykins]

I’m surprised you all think Halloween will make over $100m.

 

I obviously would love that but I just don’t see it.

 

The last slasher film to make $100m was Scream 2 in 1997. 

[Cookson]

Rampage is definitely not a guarantee to hit 100m.

[MCKillswitch123]

No updates since Rabbit, but besides FSF being #3, Ready Player One has officially crossed 100M DOM:

 

Ready Player One

Domestic Total as of Apr. 10, 2018: $100,490,351

 

That makes it 4 for 2018. Last year already had 8 of them: Split, Lego Batman, 50 Shades Darker, Get Out, Logan, Kong, BATB and Boss Baby, w/Fast 8 opening on the weekend of the same point in time, making it 9 in less than a week; while 2013, the record holder, only had 3: Identity Thief, Oz and The Croods, w/GI Joe 2 crossing the mark that weekend to make it 4. So 2018 is actually on par w/the record holder, and the fallback from 2017 isn't immensely worrying since 2017 was kinda frontloaded as a year.

 

Right now, A Quiet Place and Infinity War guarantee 6 entries in the club before the end of April. A Wrinkle In Time still has a leftover's chance to make it 7. Rampage also has a shot, though I don't know if it'd be there by the end of the month. ICOI and Blockers are outside shots, but let's keep them out. Realistically, 7-8 movies can be at 100M+ DOM before May. 2017 topped out at 9 pre-Summer, 2013 only had those 4 but then EXPLODED in May, so who knows.

[Eric Atreides]

1. Black Panther

2. Peter Rabbit

3. Fifty Shades Freed

4. Ready Player One

5. A Quiet Place

6. Avengers: Infinity War

7. Deadpool 2

8. Solo: A Star Wars Story

9. Action Point

10. Ocean's 8

11. Incredibles 2

12. Jurassic World: Fallen Kingdom

13. Sicario: Day of the Soldado

14. Ant-Man and the Wasp

15. Skyscraper

16. Hotel Transylvania 3: Summer Vacation

17. Mamma Mia: Here We Go Again!

18. Mission: Impossible - Fallout

19. Christopher Robin

20. The Nun

21. Night School

22. Venom

23. A Star is Born

24. First Man

25. Halloween

26. Bohemian Rhapsody

27. The Nutcracker and the Four Realms

28. The Grinch

29. Fantastic Beasts: The Crimes of Grindelwald

30. Ralph Breaks the Internet: Wreck-It Ralph 2

31. Spider-Man: Into the Spider-Verse

32. Aquaman

33. Bumblebee

34. Mary Poppins Returns

Edited April 28, 2018 by CoolEric258
Forgot The Nun lol

[mahnamahna]

Black Panther (202/701)

Peter Rabbit (25/115) 

Fifty Shades Freed (38/100) 

Ready Player One (41/137) 

A Quiet Place (50/185) 

Avengers - Infinity War (240/605) 

Deadpool 2

Solo - A Star Wars Story

Ocean's 8

The Incredibles 2

Jurassic World - Fallen Kingdom 

Ant-Man and the Wasp

Hotel Transylvania 3

Mission - Impossible: Fallout

Christopher Robin 

The Meg

Crazy Rich Asians

The Nun

Venom

First Man

Halloween

Dr. Seuss' The Grinch

Fantastic Beasts - The Crime of Grindelwald 

Widows 

Ralph Breaks the Internet - Wreck-it Ralph 2

Spider-Man - Into the Spider-Verse

Aquaman

Holmes & Watson

Mary Poppins Returns 

Rampage has a slight chance if it manages $7.2 million this weekend and has two sub-20% drops over 5/4-5/6 and 5/11-5/13 (fairly realistic since it'll likely remain in 2,700+ theaters for those weekends since there aren't many releases going wide enough to replace it), but $90-95 million DOM seems likely. 

 

The Hustle, Mamma Mia 2, Slender Man and A Star is Born are four I'd keep an eye on as well. 3 of the 4 target underserved demos so good WOM could push them to $100-125 million DOM. And the other is releasing during a renaissance for horror as a viable option for a $125 million+ DOM performance and decent OS numbers, too. I'd include Skyscraper, too, but after seeing Rampage's performance, it may end up doing Hercules #s (30/75) if Incredibles 2, Jurassic World 2 and Ant-Man 2 are all on pace to do $20 million+ its OW. 

 

Creed 2 will likely decline from the $110 million DOM of its predecessor. $80-95 million DOM is my guess. 

Edited April 28, 2018 by mahnamahna

[BenedictL11]

8 hours ago, mahnamahna said:

Black Panther (202/701)

Peter Rabbit (25/115) 

Fifty Shades Freed (38/100) 

Ready Player One (41/137) 

A Quiet Place (50/185) 

Avengers - Infinity War (240/605) 

Deadpool 2

Solo - A Star Wars Story

Ocean's 8

The Incredibles 2

Jurassic World - Fallen Kingdom 

Ant-Man and the Wasp

Hotel Transylvania 3

Mission - Impossible: Fallout

Christopher Robin 

The Meg

Crazy Rich Asians

The Nun

Venom

First Man

Halloween

Dr. Seuss' The Grinch

Fantastic Beasts - The Crime of Grindelwald 

Widows 

Ralph Breaks the Internet - Wreck-it Ralph 2

Spider-Man - Into the Spider-Verse

Aquaman

Holmes & Watson

Mary Poppins Returns 

Rampage has a slight chance if it manages $7.2 million this weekend and has two sub-20% drops over 5/4-5/6 and 5/11-5/13 (fairly realistic since it'll likely remain in 2,700+ theaters for those weekends since there aren't many releases going wide enough to replace it), but $90-95 million DOM seems likely. 

 

The Hustle, Mamma Mia 2, Slender Man and A Star is Born are four I'd keep an eye on as well. 3 of the 4 target underserved demos so good WOM could push them to $100-125 million DOM. And the other is releasing during a renaissance for horror as a viable option for a $125 million+ DOM performance and decent OS numbers, too. I'd include Skyscraper, too, but after seeing Rampage's performance, it may end up doing Hercules #s (30/75) if Incredibles 2, Jurassic World 2 and Ant-Man 2 are all on pace to do $20 million+ its OW. 

 

Creed 2 will likely decline from the $110 million DOM of its predecessor. $80-95 million DOM is my guess. 

Action Point may very well surprise. Same with Bohemian Rhapsody if reviews live up to the CinemaCon buzz.

 

If The Meg gets real bad reviews, I'd say the chances of getting it to that mark are extremely low.

 

As for The Hustle, there is no trailer for it. It depends on the release date and reviews.

 

Also, The Nutcracker and the Four Realms has a strong chance of making it to $100M if reviews are awesome.

Edited April 29, 2018 by BenedictL11

[Blankments]

600M

1. Black Panther - March 18

500M

1. Black Panther - March 4

400M

1. Black Panther - February 25

300M

1. Black Panther - February 23

200M

1. Black Panther - February 18

100M

1. Black Panther - February 17
2. Peter Rabbit - March 17
3. Fifty Shades Freed - March 23
4. Ready Player One - April 10
5. A Quiet Place - April 15

[zackzack]

IW $472M as of May 8

[Avatree]

26 minutes ago, zackzack said:

IW $472M as of May 8

Thanks. I wasn't quite sure if it had reached 100M yet or not.

[Blankments]

600M

1. Black Panther - March 18
2. Avengers: Infinity War - May 22

500M

1. Black Panther - March 4
2. Avengers: Infinity War - May 11

400M

1. Black Panther - February 25
2. Avengers: Infinity War - May 5

300M

1. Black Panther - February 23
2. Avengers: Infinity War - May 1

200M

1. Black Panther - February 18
2. Avengers: Infinity War - April 29
3. Deadpool 2 - May 27

100M

1. Black Panther - February 17
2. Peter Rabbit - March 17
3. Fifty Shades Freed - March 23
4. Ready Player One - April 10
5. A Quiet Place - April 15
6. Avengers: Infinity War - April 27
7. Deadpool 2 - May 20
8. Solo: A Star Wars Story - May 28