2018 100M Films - 33 down, 3 to go! (Big update)

[Maxmoser3]

We should be at a total of 16-17 movies before the summer movie season is done.

 

After those two it’s anybody’s game, since. Equalizer can do it if it can play well for the rest of the month and Labor Day squeezes some cash.

 

The rest of August looks dead, Crazy Rich Asians seems to be a nice surprise hit. Since Spy Who Dumped Me underperformed, and Mamma Mia will be on that $100 million threshold by then.  

Other than that August seems like a dark horse.

 

September now just seems like The Nun and potentially Night School If it’s good. 

 

October has  more potential with Venom, Star Is Born, First Man, and Halloween

 

[Cookson]

Rampage could still possibly get there if they do some double screenings etc.

[BoxOfficeFangrl]

8 hours ago, Cookson said:

Rampage could still possibly get there if they do some double screenings etc.

Rampage closed 7/26 according to BOM, another one for the $99m club.

[Maxmoser3]

Now we have 15 films. Mission Impossible:Fallout has passed it this weekend! And next up by Friday should be Mamma Mia!: Here We Go Again. 

 

I believe we”re lower than last year, because wasn’t there 17 at this point last year? 

 

For the rest of the year:

1. Mamma Mia 2

2. Equalizer 2

3. Crazy Rich Asians

4. The Nun

5. Venom 

6. First Man

7. Halloween

8. Bohemian Rhapsody 

9. Grinch

10. Fantastic Beasts

11. Wreck it ralph

12. Creed 2

13. Animated spider man 

14. Bumblebee

15. Aquaman

16. Mary Poppins

 

15+16= 31 -2 From 2017

 

possible but should surprise: Night School, Happytime Murders, Predator, House With A Clock In It’s Walls, A Star Is Born, Widows, and Mortal Engines.

 

[YM!]

Top 10 of year:

1.) Black Panther - $700M

2.) Infinity War - $680M

3.) Incredibles 2 - $600M

4.) Fallen Kingdom - $420M

5.) Deadpool 2 - $320M

6.) Venom - $315M

7.) Poppins - $280M

8.) Aquaman - $240M

9.) Beasts 2 - $235M

10.) Bumblebee - $220M

[Blankments]

700M

1. Black Panther - August 5

600M

1. Black Panther - March 18
2. Avengers: Infinity War - May 22

500M

1. Black Panther - March 4
2. Avengers: Infinity War - May 11
3. Incredibles 2 - July 8

400M

1. Black Panther - February 25
2. Avengers: Infinity War - May 5
3. Incredibles 2 - June 29
4. Jurassic World: Fallen Kingdom - August 1

300M

1. Black Panther - February 23
2. Avengers: Infinity War - May 1
3. Deadpool 2 - June 22
4. Incredibles 2 - June 23
5. Jurassic World: Fallen Kingdom - July 5

200M

1. Black Panther - February 18
2. Avengers: Infinity War - April 29
3. Deadpool 2 - May 27
4. Incredibles 2 - June 18
5. Solo: A Star Wars Story - June 23
6. Jurassic World: Fallen Kingdom - June 28

100M

1. Black Panther - February 17
2. Peter Rabbit - March 17
3. Fifty Shades Freed - March 23
4. Ready Player One - April 10
5. A Quiet Place - April 15
6. Avengers: Infinity War - April 27
7. Deadpool 2 - May 20
8. Solo: A Star Wars Story - May 28
9. Incredibles 2 - June 16
10. A Wrinkle in Time - June 18
11. Jurassic World: Fallen Kingdom - June 23
12. Ocean's 8 - June 24
13. Ant-Man and the Wasp - July 12
14. Hotel Transylvania 3: Summer Vacation - July 24
15. Mission: Impossible - Fallout - August 4

[IronJimbo]

On 8/5/2018 at 8:52 PM, Maxmoser3 said:

Now we have 15 films. Mission Impossible:Fallout has passed it this weekend! And next up by Friday should be Mamma Mia!: Here We Go Again. 

 

I believe we”re lower than last year, because wasn’t there 17 at this point last year? 

 

For the rest of the year:

1. Mamma Mia 2

2. Equalizer 2

3. Crazy Rich Asians

4. The Nun

5. Venom 

6. First Man

7. Halloween

8. Bohemian Rhapsody 

9. Grinch

10. Fantastic Beasts

11. Wreck it ralph

12. Creed 2

13. Animated spider man 

14. Bumblebee

15. Aquaman

16. Mary Poppins

 

15+16= 31 -2 From 2017

 

possible but should surprise: Night School, Happytime Murders, Predator, House With A Clock In It’s Walls, A Star Is Born, Widows, and Mortal Engines.

 

christ no Alita? Step it up

[Maxmoser3]

The Meg is now a possibility 

[Viktor Vilotijevic]

"The Meg" is almost  a lock for 100 million $. I don't think "Venom" will do much over 100 million. "Aquaman" is def not going over 200 million, I wouldn't be surprised if it doesn't hit 100 m club.

[MCKillswitch123]

22 hours ago, Maxmoser3 said:

The Meg is now a possibility 

Possibility? If it opens to 40M, I'd call it a probability. Dog days of Summer with very little to no competition means that it'll already be half-way there by next Friday. Even Valerian legs would almost get it to 100M+, and what are the chances that the movie is THAT drastically frontloaded?

 

Right now, this is where we're at:

 

01. Fifty Shades Freed

02. Peter Rabbit

03. Black Panther

04. A Wrinkle In Time

05. Ready Player One

06. A Quiet Place

07. Avengers: Infinity War

08. Deadpool 2

09. Solo: A Star Wars Story

10. Ocean's 8

11. Incredibles 2

12. Jurassic World: Fallen Kingdom

13. Ant-Man And The Wasp

14. Hotel Transylvania 3: Summer Vacation

15. Mamma Mia! Here We Go Again

16. Mission: Impossible, Fallout

 

These seem very likely/locks to join the club:

 

17. The Equalizer 2

18. The Meg

19. The Nun

20. Venom

21. Halloween

22. The Grinch

23. Fantastic Beasts: The Crimes Of Grindelwald

24. Ralph Breaks The Internet: Wreck-It Ralph 2

25. Spider-Man: Into The Spider-Verse

26. Aquaman

27. Mary Poppins Returns

 

That means there would still be 9 left to go. There's a small chance, but it's not too likely at this point:

 

28. Rampage (if WB ever decides to bring it back)

29. Crazy Rich Asians

30. Night School

31. A Star Is Born

32. First Man

33. Bohemian Rhapsody

34. The Nutcracker And The Four Realms

35. Widows

36. Creed II

37. Bumblebee

38. Alita: Battle Angel

 

This would beat the previous record by +2, but there's a great possibility that at least 3-4 of these don't get to 100M DOM.

Edited August 12, 2018 by MCKillswitch123

[Blankments]

700M

1. Black Panther - August 5

600M

1. Black Panther - March 18
2. Avengers: Infinity War - May 22

500M

1. Black Panther - March 4
2. Avengers: Infinity War - May 11
3. Incredibles 2 - July 8

400M

1. Black Panther - February 25
2. Avengers: Infinity War - May 5
3. Incredibles 2 - June 29
4. Jurassic World: Fallen Kingdom - August 1

300M

1. Black Panther - February 23
2. Avengers: Infinity War - May 1
3. Deadpool 2 - June 22
4. Incredibles 2 - June 23
5. Jurassic World: Fallen Kingdom - July 5

200M

1. Black Panther - February 18
2. Avengers: Infinity War - April 29
3. Deadpool 2 - May 27
4. Incredibles 2 - June 18
5. Solo: A Star Wars Story - June 23
6. Jurassic World: Fallen Kingdom - June 28
7. Ant-Man and the Wasp - August 10

100M

1. Black Panther - February 17
2. Peter Rabbit - March 17
3. Fifty Shades Freed - March 23
4. Ready Player One - April 10
5. A Quiet Place - April 15
6. Avengers: Infinity War - April 27
7. Deadpool 2 - May 20
8. Solo: A Star Wars Story - May 28
9. Incredibles 2 - June 16
10. A Wrinkle in Time - June 18
11. Jurassic World: Fallen Kingdom - June 23
12. Ocean's 8 - June 24
13. Ant-Man and the Wasp - July 12
14. Hotel Transylvania 3: Summer Vacation - July 24
15. Mission: Impossible - Fallout - August 4
16. Mamma Mia! Here We Go Again - August 11

[Gameface]

we get another one? or is it fake?

 

according to Mojo, Rampage finished with 99,345,950 dollars.

 

according to Movie City News, Rampage is at 100,170,940 dollars.

 

why warner reported that they pulled out the movie from theathers, if it's still playing? hmm...

[Cap]

Oh my god. That title. All the likes for that title. 

[Maxmoser3]

5 hours ago, Gameface said:

we get another one? or is it fake?

 

according to Mojo, Rampage finished with 99,345,950 dollars.

 

according to Movie City News, Rampage is at 100,170,940 dollars.

 

why warner reported that they pulled out the movie from theathers, if it's still playing? hmm...

Mojo and the numbers are still at $99.3 million. It’s done. 

[Maxmoser3]

Next up

18: Crazy Rich Asians 

19: Equalizer 2

20: Nun

21: Venom

22: Star Is Born

23: First Man

24: Halloween

25: Christopher Robin

26: Bohemian Rhapsody 

27: Grinch

28: Beasts 2

29: Ralph Breaks The Internet

30: Creed II

31: Animated Spider Man

32: Bumblebee

33: Aquaman

34: Mary Poppins

[Barnack]

5 hours ago, Gameface said:

why warner reported that they pulled out the movie from theathers, if it's still playing? hmm...

Tracking of the box office usually stop a good bit before the movie is completely out of rebate theater.

 

A Quiet Place/Deadpool 2 are still selling tickets:

http://akvalley.pythonanywhere.com/static/Fandango_track.txt

 

Stopped being tracked on Mojo almost a month ago, August 2.

https://www.boxofficemojo.com/movies/?page=daily&id=aquietplace.htm

 

August 23 for Deadpool.

 

Would imagine it is just too small of dailies number..

[stripe]

August was a surprisingly strong month in the end. CRA, Meg and CR will cross the mark.

 

Difficult to picture an scenario where CR misses 100M at this point. 3M for the rest of the week + 7.5-8M 4day, leaves it at +88M. Only 12M away. PD had bad legs through Sept/Oct and managed to gross 10M more after MD.

[sfran43]

4 hours ago, stripe said:

August was a surprisingly strong month in the end. CRA, Meg and CR will cross the mark.

 

Difficult to picture an scenario where CR misses 100M at this point. 3M for the rest of the week + 7.5-8M 4day, leaves it at +88M. Only 12M away. PD had bad legs through Sept/Oct and managed to gross 10M more after MD.

And don't forget Sequalizer!

[Eric Duncan]

1. Black Panther

2. Peter Rabbit

3. Fifty Shades Freed 

4. Ready Player One

5. A Quiet Place

6. Avengers: Infinity War

7. Deadpool 2

8. Solo: A Star Wars Story

9. Incredibles 2

10. A Wrinkle in Time

11. Jurassic World: Fallen Kingdom

12. Ocean's 8

13. Ant-Man and the Wasp

14. Hotel Transylvania 3: Summer Vacation

15. Mission: Impossible - Fallout

16. Mamma Mia! Here We Go Again

17. The Meg

18. Crazy Rich Asians

19. The Equalizer 2

20. Christopher Robin

21. The Nun

22. Night School

23. Venom

24. A Star is Born

25. First Man

26. Halloween

27. Bohemian Rhapsody

28. The Grinch

29. Fantastic Beasts: The Crimes of Grindelwald

30. Widows

31. Ralph Breaks the Internet

32. Creed II

33. Spider-Man: Into the Spider-Verse

34. Mary Poppins Returns

35. Aquaman

36. Alita: Battle Angel

37. Bumblebee

 

The dark horses:

-Christopher Robin

-The House with a Clock in its Walls

-The Nutcracker and the Four Realms

-Instant Family

-Mortal Engines

-Holmes & Watson

 

A true photo finish, especially since some of the stuff listed (Christopher, Nun, Night School, Widows, Creed, Alita) are far from locks.

[WrathOfHan]

1. Black Panther

2. Peter Rabbit

3. Fifty Shades Freed 

4. Ready Player One

5. A Quiet Place

6. Avengers: Infinity War

7. Deadpool 2

8. Solo: A Star Wars Story

9. Incredibles 2

10. A Wrinkle in Time

11. Jurassic World: Fallen Kingdom

12. Ocean's 8

13. Ant-Man and the Wasp

14. Hotel Transylvania 3: Summer Vacation

15. Mission: Impossible - Fallout

16. Mamma Mia! Here We Go Again

17. The Meg

18. Crazy Rich Asians

19. The Equalizer 2

20. Christopher Robin

21. The House with a Clock in Its Walls

22. Night School

23. A Star Is Born

24. Venom

25. First Man

26. Halloween

27. Bohemian Rhapsody

28. Dr. Suess' The Grinch

29. Fantastic Beasts: The Crimes of Grindelwald

30. Ralph Breaks the Internet

31. Spider-Man: Into the Spider-Verse

32. Mary Poppins Returns

33. Alita: Battle Angel

34. Aquaman

35. Bumblebee

 

Widows and Creed need amazing reviews to hit 100M IMO. There are too many movies over that timeframe right now. We'll know the answer for the former soon thanks to TIFF.

I don't have The Nun hitting 100 anymore. I think it's opening to 35M and am expecting a 2.5-2.6x max no matter where it opens. If the late embargo is an early indicator of bad reviews and WOM, RIP.