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Daily Numbers : Monday 8th January 2018, The Last Jedi 1.8 million

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1 minute ago, narniadis said:

Yes

Interesting. At 1.5m subscribers though that only translates to about $13m of inflation on a movie if every single one of them see it using the average ticket price. So really not making that big of a difference as of yet I'd say. 

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5 minutes ago, MovieMan89 said:

Interesting. At 1.5m subscribers though that only translates to about $13m of inflation on a movie if every single one of them see it using the average ticket price. So really not making that big of a difference as of yet I'd say. 

Don't use actual logic with some here lol. However it is enough to boost some of the less want to see films but I doubt we will ever be able to truly quantify how much. 

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8 minutes ago, narniadis said:

Don't use actual logic with some here lol. However it is enough to boost some of the less want to see films but I doubt we will ever be able to truly quantify how much. 

I guess it's hard to gauge because of the repeat factor. If someone who has it loves a movie than I supposed they could see it like 5 times. I'd say it probably needs around 10m monthly subscribers though before we can safely assume it's inflating a lot of movie's grosses by anything notable, and even then it would probably be unlikely to be out of the range of 15-35m or so. Again, not everyone who has it is going to see a movie, and you have to factor in how many who do have it and see a movie would have seen said movie regardless of if they had it or not. 

 

I agree that big budget movies that aren't as appealing would benefit the most. Something like Alita for example. 

Edited by MovieMan89
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11 minutes ago, narniadis said:

Don't use actual logic with some here lol. However it is enough to boost some of the less want to see films but I doubt we will ever be able to truly quantify how much

Moviepass will be able to do so...but that's gonna be months before they get themselves operating at any kinda level where they can handle that...assuming they are still around...

 

16 minutes ago, MovieMan89 said:

Interesting. At 1.5m subscribers though that only translates to about $13m of inflation on a movie if every single one of them see it using the average ticket price. So really not making that big of a difference as of yet I'd say. 

No, it's much more like $21M+, b/c these users are cost-ignoring.  So, they ignore all cheap showings and cheap days b/c they can.  They also don't price shop theaters and are likely to end up at the most expensive ones, b/c those are most likely to not sell out seats (if they have other competitors in the area)...

 

So, $8 is much more likely $14 for average prices...so, much more likely $21M in BO is available per day, assuming 100% use.  Knowing the usage, while WAY HIGH still b/c we are at the initial stages of everyone's membership (just like a gym, where people will get wild value for a few months and then fall off) is likely very high on weekends and very low on weekdays, you probably can't assume more than 5-10% (max) of users to use the pass on a weekday right now (and Tuesdays probably get the least users b/c of the discount prices, presales for these dates, and therefore higher unavailability of walk ups)...in the future, this might drop to 1-3% of users for weekdays...

 

But that still means it inflates the weekday box office for all movies by $1-2M...and the weekend box office (where you assume close to 100% usage when you assume some see 2-3 movies while others see zero) by $21M+...just with the subscriber base they have RIGHT NOW, which is growing exponentially by the day...

Edited by TwoMisfits
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6 minutes ago, TwoMisfits said:

Moviepass will be able to do so...but that's gonna be months before they get themselves operating at any kinda level where they can handle that...assuming they are still around...

 

No, it's much more like $21M+, b/c these users are cost-ignoring.  So, they ignore all cheap showings and cheap days b/c they can.  They also don't price shop theaters and are likely to end up at the most expensive ones, b/c those are most likely to not sell out seats (if they have other competitors in the area)...

 

So, $8 is much more likely $14 for average prices...so, much more likely $21M in BO is available per day, assuming 100% use.  Knowing the usage, while WAY HIGH still b/c we are at the initial stages of everyone's membership (just like a gym, where people will get wild value for a few months and then fall off) is likely very high on weekends and very low on weekdays, you probably can't assume more than 5-10% (max) of users to use the pass on a weekday right now (and Tuesdays probably get the least users b/c of the discount prices, presales for these dates, and therefore higher unavailability of walk ups)...in the future, this might drop to 1-3% of users for weekdays...

 

But that still means it inflates the weekday box office for all movies by $1-2M...and the weekend box office (where you assume close to 100% usage when you assume some see 2-3 movies while others see zero) by $21M+...just with the subscriber base they have RIGHT NOW, which is growing exponentially by the day...

I'm talking about what it does for a single movie, not all movies combined. Again, if everyone who has it sees a movie once, it's going to only add $13m  to that movie using average ticket price. I'd say average ticket price is a likely price to use, because most of the GA ignore "cheap showings" anyways because those are matinees which just aren't feasible for most people to go to given work/school. Discount Tuesday when it's all day is probably the only real case where the GA might hold out for, but that's not done everywhere. Now factor in that the most of the subscriber base any one movie is probably going to get is maybe 50% of the subscribers. I guess you can bump it up to 70% if you want to assume a decent chunk of them are going to do repeat viewings. But you also have to factor in that it's not all inflated gross either, because there's guaranteed to be those who would have seen the movie with or without MP. Can't imagine it could possibly add anymore than 10m inflation at the most to any given movie's gross with where it's at now, and that would require a lot of factors panning out. 

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Just now, Apollo2xx said:

Are you guys saying that MoviePass adds money that doesn't exist to a movie's gross?

The money exists, MP pays full price to the exhibitor. We're talking how much it inflates a movie's gross because of people who wouldn't have seen the movie otherwise or wouldn't have seen it as much. 

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4 minutes ago, MovieMan89 said:

The money exists, MP pays full price to the exhibitor. We're talking how much it inflates a movie's gross because of people who wouldn't have seen the movie otherwise or wouldn't have seen it as much. 

Then how do they profit? How it inflates a movie's gross?

 

I'm sorry if these questions seem stupid, I'm kinda new in this thing.

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I feel like with Moviepass repeat viewing is definitely a factor. Nowadays most people don't want to pay full price just to see the same movie again. But if you can see however many films you want for only 9.95 a month then ppl might go see it again since it's essentially free

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For those who haven’t noticed yet....Jumanji 2 is already the biggest grossing film for Jack Black, DOM-wise. 😁

 

WW-wise though....so far it’s 4th, just behind the first two Kung Fu Panda-films & Peter Jackson’s King Kong.

 

Same goes for Kevin Hart, which this film is his second biggest grosser, both WW & DOM, just behind Illumination’s The Secret Life of Pets.

 

I think both these actors needs to be in more blockbuster-films. Especially Kevin Hart. It’s so rare to see him being in a more larger film.

Edited by MrFanaticGuy34
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    Movie Distributor Gross Change Thtrs. Per Thtr. Total Gross Days
- (2) Star Wars Ep. VIII: The Las… Walt Disney $1,800,000 -74% 4,232 $425   $574,491,546 25
- (3) Insidious: The Last Key Universal $1,770,225 -70% 3,116 $568   $31,351,580 4
- (4) The Greatest Showman 20th Century Fox $1,360,519 -64% 3,342 $407   $78,235,842 20
- (5) Pitch Perfect 3 Universal $683,630 -73% 3,458 $198   $86,739,065 18
- (9) Darkest Hour Focus Features $611,940 -62% 1,733 $353   $28,698,272 48
- (7) Molly’s Game STX Entertainment $552,632 -68% 1,608 $344   $14,725,770 15
- (6) Ferdinand 20th Century Fox $496,316 -77% 3,156 $157   $70,963,207 25
- (11) The Shape of Water Fox Searchlight $451,108 -52% 804 $561   $22,143,656 39
- (15) Lady Bird A24 $240,333 -51% 562 $428   $34,368,455 67
- (14) Downsizing Paramount Pictures $207,652 -65% 2,020 $103   $23,140,081 18
- (-) Three Billboards Outside Eb… Fox Searchlight $197,904 -4% 310 $638   $25,590,806 60
- (-) The Post 20th Century Fox $143,869 -71% 36 $3,996   $3,991,552 18
- (-) The Disaster Artist A24 $105,555 -47% 478 $221   $19,537,337 39
- (-) Father Figures Warner Bros. $103,027 -66% 1,717 $60   $16,875,961 18
Edited by a2knet
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2 minutes ago, Apollo2xx said:

Then how do they profit? How it inflates a movie's gross?

 

I'm sorry if these questions seem stupid, I'm kinda new in this thing.

It inflates a movie's gross because people pay $10 a month to have access to one movie per day. So someone who might never pay regular admission just to see Pitch Perfect 3 might decide to go see it using MP because why not? They can see anything they want that month for one price. Or people who might never pay regular admission to see TLJ a second time might see it a second time with MP for the same aforementioned reason. 

 

How MP profits is another subject entirely, one I'd imagine largely hinges on their subscription plan which I believe locks you into a year. So some sign up maybe not realizing that they aren't going to use it enough over the course of a year for it to actually be a good deal for them, hence MP is profiting. 

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19 minutes ago, MovieMan89 said:

The money exists, MP pays full price to the exhibitor. We're talking how much it inflates a movie's gross because of people who wouldn't have seen the movie otherwise or wouldn't have seen it as much. 

Anything that adds to attendance I guess. Helps the box office overall I would say. Sure, maybe moviepass isn't sustainable, but I'm sure there are enough people who don't use it enough that the company can still make money.

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4 minutes ago, WrathOfHan said:

Holy FUCK that's an incredible hold for TGS :ohmygod: It puts 140M on the table!

I think so too. RO added 53 more after a 1.76 Monday last year (so 30x the Monday). That same multiplier gives TGS 30*1.36 = 41 more for 130 cume. But with better trending than RO 140+ is on the table.

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