Weekend Thread | 3-day estimates (per BOM): J 27M, TP 18.6M, TC 13.45M, I:TLK 12.14M, TGS 11.8M, TLJ 11.28M, P2 10.62M, PM 10M

[Chad Stevens]

22 minutes ago, Valonqar said:

riiiight. That would be 1.4b drop in raw numbers. 

Avatar is going to do 2 billion minimum 

Its the fact that fans have waited for the sequel for nearly 12 years. The same amount of time that they waited for TFA.

 

Its going to be a success

Edited January 16, 2018 by Chad Stevens

[Brainbug]

Avatar 2 could make 1,5B Worldwide and some crazy people here would still call it a "big flop".

 

Id consider it a big success if it grosses 1B worldwide. Because every movie that grosses 1B+ WW is a big success. Thinking that it comes anywhere near the level of the first one is pure lunacy imo and just a set up for disappointment.

[hw64]

6 minutes ago, MCKillswitch123 said:

I don't think anyone is denying that TLJ is a disappointment

Have you not seen all the "I'm sure Disney are wiping their tears with their millions" posts, the revisionist "everyone's expectations were too high - a less than 3x multiplier in December was supposed to happen"/"it was always going to bomb in China" type posts, all the circlejerk-y "oh no, only the Xth highest-grossing film of all time, what a disappointment" posts?

 

I'm not talking about in this thread specifically right now, but there has been a lot of that going about. Perpetuated by the same few people, perhaps, but still, there definitely are people saying it.

[junkshop36]

54 minutes ago, AndyK said:

Has she got a Rotten Tomatoes account?

 

Every little bit helps.

 

Nope but I’m sure I can make her one; or two

 

[MovieMan89]

45 minutes ago, Brainbug said:

Avatar 2 could make 1,5B Worldwide and some crazy people here would still call it a "big flop".

 

Id consider it a big success if it grosses 1B worldwide. Because every movie that grosses 1B+ WW is a big success. Thinking that it comes anywhere near the level of the first one is pure lunacy imo and just a set up for disappointment.

1.5b for Avatar 2 would be a flop considering China. It's doing 500m at the absolute worst there, with 700+ being likely. Less than $1b from the rest of the world would be horrendous considering what a juggernaut the first was in every OS market. Basically requires it to do no more than 300 DOM and then have an equally disappointing drop off in most every other market.

 

Lest we forget the budget for A2 is probably going to be some astronomical 500m+ figure that will never be made public.  Disney will be banking on 2b WW basically being a lock. 

Edited January 17, 2018 by MovieMan89

[IronJimbo]

42 minutes ago, Brainbug said:

Avatar 2 could make 1,5B Worldwide and some crazy people here would still call it a "big flop".

 

Id consider it a big success if it grosses 1B worldwide. Because every movie that grosses 1B+ WW is a big success. Thinking that it comes anywhere near the level of the first one is pure lunacy imo and just a set up for disappointment.

I mean thinking it will make less than $3b is fine, but less than $2b? Now that's what I call pure lunacy.

[Chad Stevens]

3 minutes ago, MovieMan89 said:

1.5b for Avatar 2 would be a flop considering China. It's doing 500m at the absolute worst there, with 700+ being likely. Less than $1b from the rest of the world would be horrendous considering what a juggernaut the first was in every OS market. Basically requires it to do no more than 300 DOM and then have an equally disappointing drop off in most every other market. 

so could we be looking at the first 3 billion dollar film WW? 

[IronJimbo]

 

 

1 hour ago, redfirebird2008 said:

 

I think $1.3B would be a good result for Avatar 2. Remains to be seen whether they can hit lightning in a bottle the same way they did with the first movie.

 

1 hour ago, MCKillswitch123 said:

 

And tbh, I also don't know what anyone not named IronJimbo is expecting for Avatar 2, but I do actually think no one should be too mad if it "only" made 1.3B. It's been many years since the 1st Avatar, and that wasn't even a true pop culture icon of a film that it stayed with audiences ever since. Sure, it's recognizable, but it's not a movie that people have shown care for these years down the line, despite being the highest grossing film in history. A fall of around 50% would hardly be shocking (unless the movie is Terminator 2-quality and/or the 1st major step in Ultra IMAX 24K 5D or something like that, just how Avatar 1 was the 1st step in IMAX 3D).

 

 

$1.3B would be beyond terrible and is entering the realms of impossibility.

 

 

2 minutes ago, Chad Stevens said:

so could we be looking at the first 3 billion dollar film WW? 

Yes we are.

Edited January 17, 2018 by IronJimbo

[MovieMan89]

1 minute ago, IronJimbo said:

$1.3B would be beyond terrible and is entering the realms of impossibility.

It would have to inexplicably just stay flat with the original's 200m in China, only hit about 250 DOM (around a 70% admissions decrease guesstimating 2020 year end ticket prices), and then fall an otherworldly 50%+ from the $1.8b the first made 11 years prior in non-China/DOM gross. It would be one of the biggest big budget disasters ever if that happened. 

[Chad Stevens]

5 minutes ago, IronJimbo said:

 

 

 

 

$1.3B would be beyond terrible and is entering the realms of impossibility.

 

 

Yes we are.

[MovieMan89]

7 minutes ago, Chad Stevens said:

so could we be looking at the first 3 billion dollar film WW? 

Depends on how huge China is most likely. The movie should be doing at least $2b WW minus China. If it does more like $2.2b or more minus China, 3b will probably happen. Or if China is so huge it hits $1b there alone, which isn't impossible either. 

[redfirebird2008]

12 minutes ago, MovieMan89 said:

Depends on how huge China is most likely. The movie should be doing at least $2b WW minus China. If it does more like $2.2b or more minus China, 3b will probably happen. Or if China is so huge it hits $1b there alone, which isn't impossible either. 

 

The first movie had 80% 3D and good exchange rates. Something to keep in mind. 

[MovieMan89]

2 minutes ago, redfirebird2008 said:

 

The first movie had 80% 3D and good exchange rates. Something to keep in mind. 

Aren't they aiming for glassesless 3D with this one though? If so, could see a similar 3d effect as the first. Also, even if it dropped a pretty huge amount DOM (let's say it did 450), it still can drop several hundred mil in other OS markets and hit 2b from WW minus China grosses. I'd be very surprised it it goes below 1.8b w/o China. 

[IronJimbo]

Just now, MovieMan89 said:

Aren't they aiming for glassesless 3D with this one though? If so, could see a similar 3d effect as the first. Also, even if it dropped a pretty huge amount DOM (let's say it did 450), it still can drop several hundred mil in other OS markets and hit 2b from WW minus China grosses. I'd be very surprised it it goes below 1.8b w/o China. 

No 3d without glasses for A2.. A4 is in 2024 though

[MovieMan89]

1 minute ago, IronJimbo said:

No 3d without glasses for A2.. A4 is in 2024 though

Ah well, at any rate I'd imagine A2 will be pitched with 3D harder than any movie since probably Gravity, so 3D shares should be pretty high again. 

[Killimano3]

1 hour ago, Chad Stevens said:

Avatar is going to do 2 billion minimum 

Its the fact that fans have waited for the sequel for nearly 12 years. The same amount of time that they waited for TFA.

 

Its going to be a success

 

To be fair, people were waiting 32 years for TFA not 12. 

[hw64]

29 minutes ago, Chad Stevens said:

so could we be looking at the first 3 billion dollar film WW? 

As absurd of a notion as it is, Avatar 2 is the first film since Avatar that has a non-zero chance of toppling Avatar's $2.79b.

 

Even though its chance may be 0.1%, that's still greater than the chance every other film released since 2009 has had to topple Avatar, put together.

[redfirebird2008]

7 minutes ago, MovieMan89 said:

Aren't they aiming for glassesless 3D with this one though? If so, could see a similar 3d effect as the first. Also, even if it dropped a pretty huge amount DOM (let's say it did 450), it still can drop several hundred mil in other OS markets and hit 2b from WW minus China grosses. I'd be very surprised it it goes below 1.8b w/o China. 

 

That's a big assumption to make. Many theater owners felt burned by the current version of 3D. They paid out the ass for it and have not seen the profits they were promised. I don't think Cameron will be able to get the same type of support he had for theater upgrades before Avatar's release. 

[SteveJaros]

Greatest Showman, a new standard for powerful legs?

[junkshop36]

I think A2 will do more than 2b WW but less than what Avatar made. Some where around 2.5b sounds good to me