Weekend Thread | Estimates per DHD (p.15): J 19.75M, 12S 15.3M, DoT 14.7M, TP 12.1M, TGS 11.1M, P2 8.3M, TC 6.8M, TLJ 6.5M, I:TLK 5.9M, FMG 4.3M

[a2k]

2 minutes ago, La Binoche said:

Well BoS is the better film. But I don't see TP dipping below $12M. 

Agree. It came in #1 on Thu ahead of Jumanji 1.7 vs 1.57. Temporary #1 place as J will go up easily over FSS but still a good hold.

At the very least The Post should do 12m:

4 (+135%) + 5.2 (+30%) + 2.8 (-46%) = 12.0

 

[Maxmoser3]

Not horrible. Considering Den Of Thieves & 12 Strong will be more skewed adult. 

[B D Joe]

Magnolia is still Paul Thomas Anderson's biggest wide opening with $5,694,588.  Can Phantom Thread beat it?

Edited January 19, 2018 by B D Joe

[a2k]

8 minutes ago, Jonwo said:

To be fair The Post had a holiday weekend so a higher drop was expected. 

 

It's interesting that 12 Strong has no WB involvement other than distribution, Black Label funded it and Alcon are doing the P&A, no wonder they didn't put much marketing muscle into it. 

higher drop was expected but after a 19.36 ow I would expect a higher absolute number even with a higher drop.

For eg if it gets 12.5m, that's a 35% drop vs 26% drop for BoS's 11.4m weekend.

Edited January 19, 2018 by a2knet

[titanic2187]

Can the greatest showman break $150m?

[Jonwo]

The Post will be $11m ahead of BoS so I wonder if there is enough gas for $80-90m domestic 

[MCKillswitch123]

Wow, Den Of Thieves with a bigger than expected start.

 

Boooo to Paddington dropping more than 20%, btw.

[Brainbug]

3 minutes ago, MCKillswitch123 said:

Boooo to Paddington dropping, btw.

 

Fixed that.

[grim22]

After reading this, I only have one question - when is this coming out?

 

 

 

[Barnack]

1 hour ago, B D Joe said:

Magnolia is still Paul Thomas Anderson's biggest wide opening with $5,694,588.  Can Phantom Thread beat it?

Will be hard, late 90s prime Tom Cruise + following boogie nights success > DDL + following Inherent Vice very mixed reception.

 

Major ticket Inflation since will help, but having 897 theater vs Magnolia 1,034 will eat some of that.

[WrathOfHan]

BOP predictions and TCs: http://pro.boxoffice.com/long-range-forecast-tomb-raider-love-simon/

 

Tomb Raider: 22/55

Love, Simon: 13/40

Maze Runner: 23/59 (-4/-9%)

Winchester: 11.5/31 (+15/+11%)

15:17: 15/47 (-6%)

 

Winchester: 2,800 theaters

 

 

Edited January 19, 2018 by WrathOfHan

[Barnack]

1 minute ago, WrathOfHan said:

BOP predictions and TCs: http://pro.boxoffice.com/long-range-forecast-tomb-raider-love-simon/

 

Tomb Raider: 22/55

Love, Simon: 13/44

Maze Runner: 23/59 (-4/-9%)

Winchester: 11.5/31 (+15/+11%)

15:17: 15/47 (-6%)

 

Winchester: 2,800 theaters

 

 

Are they (or someone) keeping at track record of BOP predictions accuracy ?

 

I tend to pretty much always "agree" with their opinions.

[WrathOfHan]

Runtimes without credits and trailer attachments for next week:

 

Maze Runner: 2:18. Attachments unknown.

Hostiles: 2:07. Attachments are Chappaquiddick and I, Tonya.

[redfirebird2008]

Greatest Showman down only 14.7% from Thursday to Thursday. Good chance of a sub-20% drop for this weekend. What a run!

[baumer]

Not sure anyone cares about this stuff or even knows who Eric Braeden is but he plays the iconic character Victor Newman on The Young and the Restless. It is his son that is directing the film and Eric Braeden also has a supporting role in den of Thieves.

 

It's definitely a movie I've been looking forward to seeing and the Thursday preview numbers really please me. I hope it's a good film and I hope it has a good little run.

[Alli]

31 minutes ago, WrathOfHan said:

BOP predictions and TCs: http://pro.boxoffice.com/long-range-forecast-tomb-raider-love-simon/

 

Tomb Raider: 22/55

Love, Simon: 13/40

Maze Runner: 23/59 (-4/-9%)

Winchester: 11.5/31 (+15/+11%)

15:17: 15/47 (-6%)

 

Winchester: 2,800 theaters

 

 

That would be disastrous. Do we know the estimated budget?

[Barnack]

Just now, Alli said:

That would be disastrous. Do we know the estimated budget?

I have the feeling that it could easily play 30dom/70intl split like King Kong did, for a 183m WW run, maybe even 200WW with that domestic performance.

 

55m is the same domestic than Assassin Creed (54/186, for a 244m WW with a 22/78 split), I imagine that one comparable that website used.

 

Hitman was 27/73 (would make Tomb raider make 204m WW with the same performance)

Need for speed/Assassin Creed 21/79 ( 262m)

Angry bird: 30/70 (183m)

 

[Alli]

1 minute ago, Barnack said:

I have the feeling that it could easily play 30dom/70intl split like King Kong did, for a 183m WW run, maybe even 200WW with that domestic performance.

 

55m is the same domestic than Assassin Creed (54/186, for a 244m WW with a 22/78 split), I imagine that one comparable that website used.

 

Hitman was 27/73 (would make Tomb raider make 204m WW with the same performance)

Need for speed/Assassin Creed 21/79 ( 262m)

Angry bird: 30/70 (183m)

 

Yeah, but if it flops domestic, there will be no sequel. It rarely happens.

[Barnack]

2 minutes ago, Alli said:

Yeah, but if it flops domestic, there will be no sequel. It rarely happens.

That is probably still true (even Warcraft giant 433m run with that very low domestic performance does not seem to have much sequel talk), Resident Evils being the one exception I could think off.

[DAJK]

Love Simon is going to do double that prediction IMO. Tomb Raider seems about right