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Best Actor Predictions 2018

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The most obvious contenders so far are Christian Bale (Backseat), Steve Carell (Beautiful Boy), Ryan Gosling (First Man), and Lucas Hedges (Boy Erased) based on how baity their roles are on paper. Maybe Brad Pitt joins the fun if Ad Astra ends up getting a late December qualifying release before its wide January opening?

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Hmmm.

 

I won't predict the nominees just yet; that'll be in March. But I do have a few ideas already.

 

Firstly: Lucas Hedges for Boy Erased. He is a very competent actor, and I've been rooting for him ever since I found out he was one of the kakhi scouts in Moonrise Kingdom. If he shows strength here, I think, after seeing other potential candidates, that Hedges has a chance at setting at setting the youngest-actor-win record. I really do. Of course, we'll have to see how the film turns out. But his winning streak has been undeniable. I'm confident he'll be on the radar, Chalamet style.

 

Secondly: Joaquin Phoenix for Don't Worry, He Won't Get Far On Foot. Director Gus Van Sant is an Oscar veteran, and the trailer of his film indicates that the film will be a very excellent dramedy that Amazon will certainly want to give an awards season push. This is the type of role that the Academy has nominated many times before, so don't count this one out just yet.

 

Thirdly: Adam Driver for The Man Who Killed Don Quixote. From one of the directors of Monty Python and the Holy Grail, this film has finally been filmed, and I think there's a reason why it wasn't cancelled. Plus, Adam Driver is one of the best actors currently working in the medium, and his role as Kylo Ren has made many people aware of his acting ability. This may be the year he gets noticed.

 

And finally, for now: Brad Pitt for Ad Astra. It's been years since his last nomination, which was for Moneyball. But notice: sports dramas like Moneyball are a type of genre film that don't usually strike a chord with the Academy unless they're very good. And another genre that works the same sort of way is Science Fiction, the genre of Ad Astra. So will Brad Pitt's next nomination be for another atypical film? We will see.

Edited by slambros

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my only real guess right now would be christian bale for the dick cheney movie but a part of me thinks won't they just be like "eh we gave it to a fat politician part last year"

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I feel like if First Man ends up living up to Chazelle's previous two movies, Gosling will emerge the obvious frontrunner.

Edited by filmlover

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first man maybe i'm wrong but there's always that one movie everyone's calling out in january that ends up whiffing and that one's giving me that feeling. idk maybe i'm just disappointed in chazelle that film just seems like such a safe direction to turn.

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1. Christian Bale, Backseat

2. Lucas Hedges, Boy Erased

3. Steve Carell, Beautiful Boy

4. Robert Redford, Old Man and the Gun

5. Ryan Gosling, First Man

 

Backseat is going to have to suck hardcore for Bale to miss. Same for Hedges.

Beautiful Boy is a bit of a question mark, but I'll remain optimistic for now.

Redford's gotta be getting a sendoff nomination either in lead or supporting.

I don't think First Man will be an awards flop, but I'm not expecting it to be a big acting play. Gosling's a placeholder for me at the moment. I was going to put Seth Rogen in for Newsflash, but David Gordon Green is still shooting Halloween. 

 

 

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Lucas Hedges is definitely the one I'm rooting for the most this season. It's time for that "youngest Best Actor winner" stat to fall.

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Christian Bale, Backseat

Lucas Hedges, Boy Erased

Brad Pitt, Ad Astra

Robert Redford, The Old Man and the Gun

John David Washington, Black Klansman

 

going big on ad astra will be my downfall.

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3 hours ago, CoolioD1 said:

 

going big on ad astra will be my downfall.

 

You'll look real good if you're right on it though.

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Christian Bale

Ryan Gosling

Lucas Hedges

Robert Redford

John David Washington

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4 hours ago, CoolEric258 said:

Christian Bale

Ryan Gosling

Lucas Hedges

Robert Redford

John David Washington

According to a script report on AW, the only acting contender from Black Klansman will be Adam Driver. IDK if the movie will go anywhere in general with how many films Focus has this year.

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My predictions:

 

Christian BaleCheney

Willem Dafoe, At Eternity's Gate

Lucas Hedges, Boy Erased

Rami Malek, Bohemian Rapsody

Brad Pitt, AD Astra

 

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Is there an early contender in this category that isn't a biopic role? :jeb!: 

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18 minutes ago, WrathOfHan said:

Is there an early contender in this category that isn't a biopic role? :jeb!: 

bradley cooper or robert redford could be smthing.

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Just now, CoolioD1 said:

bradley cooper or robert redford could be smthing.

Lol shit forgot Cooper. Redford is based on a true story tho

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I'm fully expecting this to be Bale vs. Gosling all the way to the end (provided of course their films live up to expectations), with the edge going to the latter, especially if First Man lives up to both of Chazelle's previous movies.

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I have a new idea for a contender, from a film that recently debuted at Cannes: Mads Mikkelsen, for the sparsely-scripted survival drama Arctic. Bleecker Street, a distribution that recently had a similar campaigning success with Viggo Mortensen in Captain Fantastic, bought the rights for the film's distribution, and I believe that the film can be an acting player like All is Lost was in 2013. Plus, Mads Mikkelsen has been building up industry good-will in high profile projects such as HannibalDoctor Strange, and Rogue One: A Star Wars Story. I don't believe that such an occurrence is outside the realm of possibility, and personally, I'd love to see it happen.

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Willem Dafoe won best actor in Venice (and generally got lots of praise) for his Van Gogh movie that CBS Films is putting out in November, could be a low-key contender on the level of Ethan Hawke if one or two biopic performances disappoint, Redford falls by the wayside, etc. 

 

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