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filmlover

Best Actress Predictions 2018

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Now that Coleman is in the race, I think she's definitely going to get a nomination. I think there's a reason why she wasn't frauded into Supporting, and I think that's because the work she does is capable of standing out in a crowded field.

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Well, with many of the other Oscar films struggling to make a dent at the box office, Mary Poppins Returns might be able to pull a fast one with its late release date, and that'd only be good for Emily Blunt. We already know she's getting boosted from the Golden Globe, with a pretty much guaranteed nomination and a potential win that isn't at all out of the realm of possibility.

 

I'd be sad because it lowers Toni Colette's chances even further, but if this is to happen, then so be it. Blunt would be a very exciting nomination.

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I feel like this year, the race for a best actress or best supporting actress nomination is like really deep. There are so so many performances that could easily be nominated and yet will be left out. Usually I’m dead set on 6-7 by now that are really up there but man this year I’m in the double digits and I don’t know how to narrow it down :( So many performances were so good. And I haven’t even seen Mary Queen of Scots, Mary Poppins, The Favourite or Vice yet so none of the actresses in those films are on my list. Of course The Academy and what not probably aren’t in the same boat as me but man this year i feel like has been deeper than others. 

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Picture this:

 

Joanna Kulig for Cold War.

 

Amazon has begun to push for it pretty hard. They might as well try, as they're already pushing the film itself for Foreign Feature and Cinematography.

 

Kulig would likely occupy that fifth spot which sees everyone other than Close, Colman, Gaga, and McCarthy fighting vigorously. Heck, with Glenn Close looking iffy--things could certainly be better for Glenn Close right now--Kulig could end up taking that spot.

 

Here's what led me to suggest this. First, I went to Box Office Mojo, and I saw a For Your Consideration advertisement on the sidebars--Amazon had used the site to advertise Beautiful Boy very heavily, so that wasn't too surprising--but the tagline of the Cold War advertisement was thisfor your consideration in all categories including best actress. That goes to show how they're choosing this moment to go for it. The second thing I saw was someone's analysis of the globe nominees on the internet. This person also brought up Kulig, saying that she could end up being a sleeper candidate in a similar way to Marion Cotillard.

 

Is it possible? Well, it's still early December. This is a competitive actress race--probably the most competitive since 2016--which makes the race all the more exciting.

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Eh, she seems amazing in the trailers but without a lot of critics’ momentum I’d say she’s at least behind Aparacio.

 

And that’s assuming Blunt isn’t the fifth spot. (Though I would maybe put Close in fifth - this is Sony Classics’ only real shot at an above the line nom so I imagine they’ll fight like hell for it.)

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15 hours ago, AndyK said:

Isn't it time this category was scrapped?

 

11 hours ago, AndyK said:

What's the impediment that stops males and females competing in the same best actor category?

 

Actress is a redundant word.

 

So I see what you're saying and I have to say that I absolutely disagree with the idea of blending the actor and actress categories together.

 

Let's view it through the lens of sports. You have men's basketball and women's basketball. You have men's tennis and women's tennis.

 

Different rules. Different strategic approaches. Different considerations. Equal opportunity.

 

I view the split between Best Actor and Best Actress in that sense, because the decisions to cast an actor or an actress in a given film is one that affects how a film is interpreted by the general audience. That, and if the two categories were merged, what would stop the competition from becoming something like American Ninja Warrior, where one gender constantly receives more nominations than the other? The split maintains the even amount of nominations that each gender receives and maximizes the number of films that can be represented by the acting nominations.

 

If the acting categories were merged, would we get a deserving acting nomination such as Marion Cotillard in Two Days, One Night? Perhaps not.

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2 hours ago, Slambros said:

 

 

So I see what you're saying and I have to say that I absolutely disagree with the idea of blending the actor and actress categories together.

 

Let's view it through the lens of sports. You have men's basketball and women's basketball. You have men's tennis and women's tennis.

 

Different rules. Different strategic approaches. Different considerations. Equal opportunity.

 

I view the split between Best Actor and Best Actress in that sense, because the decisions to cast an actor or an actress in a given film is one that affects how a film is interpreted by the general audience. That, and if the two categories were merged, what would stop the competition from becoming something like American Ninja Warrior, where one gender constantly receives more nominations than the other? The split maintains the even amount of nominations that each gender receives and maximizes the number of films that can be represented by the acting nominations.

 

If the acting categories were merged, would we get a deserving acting nomination such as Marion Cotillard in Two Days, One Night? Perhaps not.

The sporting analogy doesn't work.

 

Males and females can't compete in those fields because of physiological differences.

 

No such impediment exists in the world of acting or other non physical fields, there is no such thing as doctress or engineeress. They exist on a level playing field.

 

The actress category is inherently sexist and if you speak to actors most want the word banned from the vocabulary.

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28 minutes ago, CoolioD1 said:

do you think best director should be split by gender as well? what's the difference?

Best Director already has a tough time with female nominees (we’re already sure to get thinkpieces again this year about an all-male line up and the limited opportunities for female directors in the industry) so we’re definitely not there yet for the acting categories even if the opportunities for females in acting seem better than they are in directing. Knowing the Academy they would probably just nominate all dudes or 4 guys and 1 female. I don’t see it happening any time in the future either way (at least not while they are at ABC) though since they want up to 20 acting nominees to attend the ceremony (especially when the fashions of the female nominees/presenters are why a portion of the Oscar audience tunes in and lord knows the Oscars are hungry for ratings these days).

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Technically speaking having separate Actor and Actress competitions is indeed pointless. The same skill set is being evaluated and neither sex has a particular advantage over the other.

 

But I think marketing and PR means that the merging really isn't a serious possibility. If anything the academy would probably want more high profile awards, not less. 

 

This is the first time in a while the Actress side of things seems much more interesting. Olivia Coleman's performance was brilliant. So was Toni Collette's, Saoirse Ronan's and by all accounts Glenn Close though I haven't seen the movie. A developing actress like Lady Gaga really has no business in the conversation, even though she did a really good job, but it would definitely pull in some public attention and she's clearly in the mix. 

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