Jumanji: The Next Level l Sony l December 13, 2019 l 10th Most Profitable Movie of 2019

[cdsacken]

1 hour ago, Yandereprime101189 said:

Well, the whole thread almost lost its shit at the China numbers and the seemingly low Chinese-Imbd clone score so that might be partly why I think that. 

 

Mostly I see this as a similar situation to Fallen Kingdom, where there were literal people thinking it was going to do 80 or 90 million opening weekend, with not that good presales, and then it proved them wrong and becomes very successful. Time only tells if Jumanji ends up being similar though. Jumanji may not be on the same octave as Jurassic, but this thread and the buzz here are giving me massive deja vu.

Because the thread wanted 1B. We've shifted from that being amazing to 700. 600 good, mid 500s expected.

 

Crazy insane log legs this time around are unexpected imo.

Edited December 11, 2019 by cdsacken

[Curtis1986]

So nice to have you sequel that actually lives up to or surpassed original. Can't wait to see this Friday.

[Ryan Reynolds]

tracking says 50m OW, but everyone here thinks 40-45m?

[Noctis]

Surprised by the reviews actually. 

[narniadis]

5 hours ago, Ryan Reynolds said:

tracking says 50m OW, but everyone here thinks 40-45m?

Tracking has it between 40 and 60 as BoxofficePro also indicates and they have it at 44m for OW so far which is consistent with the data available. 

[cdsacken]

6 hours ago, Ryan Reynolds said:

tracking says 50m OW, but everyone here thinks 40-45m?

Presales are pretty darn low. This is a walkup heavy film so the range is big. 44-60m for tracking. Im more like 38-53

[a2k]

the previous one had a 3-day of ~36 and did 11x that dom but it had burnt off 16.6 worth of demand before the ow.

what would have it's fair value 3-day been with a friday od? 45+ I guess. that gives a fair value multi of 9x using the same final dom - which for a phenomenally leggy run is fair thing to do.

 

if jum3 can get to 45+ then it's about 5.5x multi from 250 dom. seems enough of a pleaser to manage those legs. that sort of dom would keep 600 ww alive while making 550 ww extremely likely.

[Eric Duncan]

 

[1Robert1]

4 hours ago, a2k said:

the previous one had a 3-day of ~36 and did 11x that dom but it had burnt off 16.6 worth of demand before the ow.

what would have it's fair value 3-day been with a friday od? 45+ I guess. that gives a fair value multi of 9x using the same final dom - which for a phenomenally leggy run is fair thing to do.

 

if jum3 can get to 45+ then it's about 5.5x multi from 250 dom. seems enough of a pleaser to manage those legs. that sort of dom would keep 600 ww alive while making 550 ww extremely likely.

 

Somehow a lot people think that this is bad movie, so it can have bad first weekend, but with goods reviews and good wom it have a chance to have even better than 5.5 multi.

[narniadis]

27 minutes ago, 1Robert1 said:

 

Somehow a lot people think that this is bad movie, so it can have bad first weekend, but with goods reviews and good wom it have a chance to have even better than 5.5 multi.

Its not a matter of thinking its a good or bad film, its understanding how box-office works this time of year. a 5.5 multi this time of year is great and upper-end for a film that opens like we are hoping for Jumanji to do on the upper side.

Very rarely do we end up with weird performances such as 2017 when Jumanji and The Greatest Showman were the exception but nowhere close to the norm.

Being a fairly new poster here I don't know what your box-office knowledge is like, so I suggest taking a look at major release performance over the December/January frames the past 15 years and you will see all of this as it stands in actual data.

[Alli]

It will surprise some people...  300M+

[Legion Again]

Boxofficepro at 39 for the weekend. With implied legs from their last long-range, would be about 185-220 total. Looks right to me.

[narniadis]

8 minutes ago, Arendelle Legion said:

Boxofficepro at 39 for the weekend. With implied legs from their last long-range, would be about 185-220 total. Looks right to me.

Maybe we should compare its run to National Treasure 2? Obviously many differences and that film opened way closer to Christmas proper but the range would work. 

[TwoMisfits]

I think it's gonna surprise - lots of folks are gonna jump on the $5 and $7 off any ticket deals last minute (which are combinable and available through this week), and we'll see $50M+ this weekend.  

 

The theater and screen sets are there for that kinda play...so let's see if we see it:)...

[Jonwo]

It's a fun film but it retread a lot of the previous film's beats. I think if they do another film, they will do something different. 

[TwoMisfits]

Kids pestered me into the tickets when they saw the $5 off ticket deal sitting on my phone...and god bless Atom for having that deal with the Chase Pay deal and the cheap Tuesday, all at the same time...I could have had 6 tickets under $10 if I used both my Chase cards, but I settled for $15 OOP for a prime time Tuesday showing.  The kids haven't been to the theater since Addams Family, so this should be fun for them:).

[JB33]

3 minutes ago, TwoMisfits said:

Kids pestered me into the tickets when they saw the $5 off ticket deal sitting on my phone...and god bless Atom for having that deal with the Chase Pay deal and the cheap Tuesday, all at the same time...I could have had 6 tickets under $10 if I used both my Chase cards, but I settled for $15 OOP for a prime time Tuesday showing.  The kids haven't been to the theater since Addams Family, so this should be fun for them:).

Wow, is it just me or is that a LONG time away from the theatre for you and your family? 

[TwoMisfits]

9 minutes ago, JB33 said:

Wow, is it just me or is that a LONG time away from the theatre for you and your family? 

It is...we've been very busy, and there's little the kids have wanted...spouse and I had a date night at Joker in between, but it's been a spell:)...

 

We do have Star Wars for 4 (girls staying home) for Dec 26, so we do have 2 movies this month already (to make up for skipping Nov)...

 

To be honest, Frozen 2 did not really hit my boys' fancy, and my girls are too old (saw 1st, but never LOVED it)...Arctic Dogs was a joke...and I wasn't paying 1st run money for Playing with Fire even if my youngest did actually want that one over the protests of the other 3 (and the dang movie still hasn't hit my cheap-o), so Jumanji it is:)...

 

We still might even go 3 this month if PWF hits the cheap-o for New Years Eve (since they are still doing their $2 Tuesday then)...or Frozen does (but that will never happen:)...or Spies in Disguise gives me a deal I can't skip.  Or I break down and get Richard Jewell tickets for another spouse date night, b/c I lived through that event, and it intrigues me...

 

EDIT: And I'm still annoyed I let my Knives Out Atom deal go...spouse didn't want to see it, til he did (and the deal was over), and now I can't bring myself to pay full price.  If that gets to my cheap-o, that might also be a NYE outing for either a date or a mom and girls day out (since my teens yelled at dad for not going and said they'd have gone)

Edited December 12, 2019 by TwoMisfits

[JB33]

2 minutes ago, TwoMisfits said:

It is...we've been very busy, and there's little the kids have wanted...spouse and I had a date night at Joker in between, but it's been a spell:)...

 

We do have Star Wars for 4 (girls staying home) for Dec 26, so we do have 2 movies this month already (to make up for skipping Nov)...

 

To be honest, Frozen 2 did not really hit my boys' fancy, and my girls are too old (saw 1st, but never LOVED it)...Arctic Dogs was a joke...and I wasn't paying 1st run money for Playing with Fire even if my youngest did actually want that one over the protests of the other 3 (and the dang movie still hasn't hit my cheap-o), so Jumanji it is:)...

 

We still might even go 3 this month if PWF hits the cheap-o for New Years Eve (since they are still doing their $2 Tuesday then)...or Frozen does (but that will never happen:)...or Spies in Disguise gives me a deal I can't skip.  Or I break down and get Richard Jewell tickets for another spouse date night, b/c I lived through that event, and it intrigues me...

You inspire me to have a movie family of my own! Glad you're sort of passing down your cinema-going passion to your kids, especially in these times!

[TwoMisfits]

Just now, JB33 said:

You inspire me to have a movie family of my own! Glad you're sort of passing down your cinema-going passion to your kids, especially in these times!

My youngest is so into movies and movie making (he wants to be a director) that he tells me the director of all the movies coming out...and then he looks up the movies on his Kindle to see what else the director has directed and if he can get Blu Rays/DVDs for them.  He's the reason I started the local tween/teen movie club at my library, b/c he wants to watch the movies tweens/teens watch (or he thinks he does), and I figure he might become the next Quentin Tarantino if he finds his "niche" of old movies...or he's gonna be my ringer at trivia night...one or the other:)...