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Eric Atreides

Jumanji: The Next Level l Sony l December 13, 2019 l 10th Most Profitable Movie of 2019

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1 minute ago, TwoMisfits said:

My youngest is so into movies and movie making (he wants to be a director) that he tells me the director of all the movies coming out...and then he looks up the movies on his Kindle to see what else the director has directed and if he can get Blu Rays/DVDs for them.  He's the reason I started the local tween/teen movie club at my library, b/c he wants to watch the movies tweens/teens watch (or he thinks he does), and I figure he might become the next Quentin Tarantino if he finds his "niche" of old movies...or he's gonna be my ringer at trivia night...one or the other:)...

Music to my ears. Keep it up!

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After all doom and gloom from China thread, its reviews are a pleasant surprise. I think this will surprise on the upside domestic relative to expectations. I would say 55/250m kind of run. Not sure about OS at all. Let us see how it does in other markets. France was not too bad(ahead of previous movie) but we need few more countries to report.

 

At least PS I have seen seem backloaded.

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7 minutes ago, keysersoze123 said:

After all doom and gloom from China thread, its reviews are a pleasant surprise. I think this will surprise on the upside domestic relative to expectations. I would say 55/250m kind of run. Not sure about OS at all. Let us see how it does in other markets. France was not too bad(ahead of previous movie) but we need few more countries to report.

 

At least PS I have seen seem backloaded.

thats still a huge drop, it can make 300m with 55m ow, star wars is the only threat, not seeing any other breakouts

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14 hours ago, narniadis said:

Its not a matter of thinking its a good or bad film, its understanding how box-office works this time of year. a 5.5 multi this time of year is great and upper-end for a film that opens like we are hoping for Jumanji to do on the upper side.

Very rarely do we end up with weird performances such as 2017 when Jumanji and The Greatest Showman were the exception but nowhere close to the norm.

Being a fairly new poster here I don't know what your box-office knowledge is like, so I suggest taking a look at major release performance over the December/January frames the past 15 years and you will see all of this as it stands in actual data.

Honestly i have no idea what you are saying. Are you suggesting that reviews and wom doesn't have ANY IMPACT on legs? I didn't say that next level will have as good legs as welcome to the jungle Last year Bumblebee, Mule, Mary Poppins did better than 5.5 Multi, and Spider-man and aquaman were quite close. 250 million is very possible and with 39 million opening predicted by boxofficepro it will have better than 5.5 multi. 

Edited by 1Robert1
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4 hours ago, 1Robert1 said:

Honestly i have no idea what you are saying. Are you suggesting that reviews and wom doesn't have ANY IMPACT on legs? I didn't say that next level will have as good legs as welcome to the jungle Last year Bumblebee, Mule, Mary Poppins did better than 5.5 Multi, and Spider-man and aquaman were quite close. 250 million is very possible and with 39 million opening predicted by boxofficepro it will have better than 5.5 multi. 

Your post is an example of not understanding box office. 

Every film that you named opened nowhere close to 40m let alone 50m. Legs at Christmastime can be much "bigger" for a smaller film and they can be even larger than reality if they open on a day that's not Friday (such as Mary Poppins). 

Even in the holidays the larger a film opens the lower its legs will be statistically. Do reviews and word of mouth influence things? Of course they do hence my continued push for the 5.5x which is a good multiplier for a large film this time of year. 

Jumanji 2017 had ridiculous, out of normal legs that we rarely ever see even in the holidays. Same with Greatest Showman, Avatar and Titanic back in the day. 

All those of us that look at data are saying is a good run doesnt mean out of the world legs which for some unrealistic reason a lot of yall seem to be expecting again. 

It should play out leg wise like Aquaman did which will net it a 250m gross if it opening in the 45-50m range. Nobody would say that Aquaman had poor holiday legs so it shouldn't apply to Jumanji either. 

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1 hour ago, narniadis said:

Your post is an example of not understanding box office. 

Every film that you named opened nowhere close to 40m let alone 50m. Legs at Christmastime can be much "bigger" for a smaller film and they can be even larger than reality if they open on a day that's not Friday (such as Mary Poppins). 

Even in the holidays the larger a film opens the lower its legs will be statistically. Do reviews and word of mouth influence things? Of course they do hence my continued push for the 5.5x which is a good multiplier for a large film this time of year. 

Jumanji 2017 had ridiculous, out of normal legs that we rarely ever see even in the holidays. Same with Greatest Showman, Avatar and Titanic back in the day. 

All those of us that look at data are saying is a good run doesnt mean out of the world legs which for some unrealistic reason a lot of yall seem to be expecting again. 

It should play out leg wise like Aquaman did which will net it a 250m gross if it opening in the 45-50m range. Nobody would say that Aquaman had poor holiday legs so it shouldn't apply to Jumanji either. 

Box office pro predicted that Jumanji will open with 39 mln, spider-man: into the spider-verse had 35.3 million it's not that big difference.... Sing in 2016 had also 35 opening (FSS) and did 270 million. I think it's funny that you say that i don't understand box office, but you compare jumnaji3 to non-existent movies. How many movies opened with 40-50 mln in christmas time? Even if you find some example there is not enough of them to say that jumanji can't do more than 5.5 multi. And if jumanji will end with 250 mln, and 39 mln opening it will be more than 5.5 multi...

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As always when its not liked, they pull out incompatible items 😂 animated films of course have better legs / multipliers over the holidays. And frankly based on presales and its preview number Spiderman under opened last year due to being presales frontloaded. 

I am comparing Jumanji with the films of the type such as again Aquaman. If you want to go back further, National Treasure 2 with its 40m opening and 220m final is another very old prime example. Look at films that opened larger which is what Jumanji needs for the 300m camp and with the exception of Jumanji 2017 (which again, opened on Wednesday) they all had to open bigger to make the gross. 

 

Finally, if you go to BOM or any other tracking site, you can see that of the top 15 December releases that passed 250m, only 3 did so with an opening weekend under 50m in recent years - Sing and Jumanji 17 which opened on Wednesdays so they are not eligible to count and then going back 13 years you find Night At the Museum which had Christmas Eve on its Sunday which decimated its gross. NATM had a great 8x multiplier that again reminds and looks like Jumanji and what happened with its sequel? Again it dropped around 30% which would put Jumanji 19 again under the 300m camp by a large margin (about 280m if I am mathing right in my head.) 

 

I am wanting Jumanji to hit 50m+ this weekend and even in the tracking thread Keyser made comments last night about feeling better with 50m so its possible, but if it opens to 39m with Star Wars about to shred it on the 3 day next weekend it will not get anywhere close to 300m and would be highly unlikely to hit 250m. 

Data is great and always has the possibility of changing but its still the truth which doesnt support your position. 

Edited by narniadis
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25 minutes ago, narniadis said:

 

Sorry but your post makes me laugh, you're comparing jumanji to national treasure 2, nt2 had 36% on rotten tomatoes and few december days less than jumanji next level. If nt2 with poor reviews, poor wom, and not many decembers days could have 5 multi, why more than 5.5 multi for jumanji is impossible/ or even not likely? It's Christmas time people can go and see stars and jumanji... 

NATM 2 was released in may.... and NATM 3 in december had over 6.5 multi...

Jumanji with 39 OW and 280 finish will have over 7.1 multi... With 280 finish would have more than 50 mln OW to no reach 5.5 multi....

Edited by 1Robert1
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57 minutes ago, 1Robert1 said:

Box office pro predicted that Jumanji will open with 39 mln, spider-man: into the spider-verse had 35.3 million it's not that big difference.... Sing in 2016 had also 35 opening (FSS) and did 270 million.

 

Date Rank Gross % Change Theaters Per Theater Total Gross Days
Dec 21, 2016 2 $11,010,175   4,022 $2,737   $11,010,175 1
Dec 22, 2016 2 $9,602,465 -13% 4,022 $2,387   $20,612,640 2
Dec 23, 2016 2 $12,966,810 +35% 4,022 $3,224   $33,579,450 3
Dec 24, 2016 2 $7,915,035 -39% 4,022 $1,968   $41,494,485 4
Dec 25, 2016 2 $14,376,300 +82% 4,022 $3,574   $55,870,785 5

 

1) Weekend was deflated due to 24th falling on Sat. On a non-deflated weekend it would have been something like 13+20+13 =46 (vs 13+8+14=35). Maybe that's why they went with a Wed release on an odd weekend BO behavior wise.

 

2) That number would have gone even higher if not for a big Wed/Thu burn off and a Fri opening like with Jum3 this weekend. Say 17+22+13=52 with Fri od.

 

Have tempered the sat bump compared to previous 13+20+13 example as it's just day #2 in this case. On a different weekend it would be silly of me or anyone to say that a hypothetical 3-day ow would have done close to the actual 5-day ow (56 in Sing's case) but due to that Sat deflation a close enough number like 52 I used above is not a bad guess.

 

3) Not a sequel like Jum3

 

4) Animations tend to have better legs even among family movies

 

Not claiming 5.5x is impossible for Jum3 (and am hoping it gets there), just that it's the higher-end of expectations. BO is fickle and full of surprises. No one's guessing ability is better in an innate way, just that looking at suitable data can help.

Edited by a2k
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When you realize any hope of a productive conversation isnt a reality.... sigh 

Glad to know that RT is the deciding factor in a film being good or not for the general public. 

Gonna stop since I am bordering on writing things that will get me a warning 😂

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14 minutes ago, a2k said:

Weekend was deflated due to 24th falling on Sat. On a non-deflated weekend it would have been something like 13+20+13 =46 (vs 13+8+14=35). Maybe that's why they went with a Wed release on an odd weekend BO behavior wise.

23rd was inflated. Normal would have been

9 14 11

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Just come out watching. Few things.

1. It has enough entertainment for sweet Christmas legs. Had good laughs here and there.

2. Kevin Hart is treasure

3. Two surprise characters

4. Karen Gillan rock

5. Karen Gillan Rock kiss 🤮

6. But... Lack of novelty sure feels odd but shouldn't be problem. Depending on start I think shall easily do $200-250mn.

7. They are gonna make another one, despite saying thrice (I counted) that they won't and that one will be like.... (Watch for yourself)

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5 minutes ago, Jedi Jat said:

23rd was inflated. Normal would have been

9 14 11

Nah, its the only calendar frame where its hard to say what would or wouldn't have been normal. A non Christmas weekend would have seen the Saturday be 100%+ the friday for an animated film. So even your outlay isnt accurate. The 24th on a weekend always over skews everything. 

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20 minutes ago, narniadis said:

When you realize any hope of a productive conversation isnt a reality.... sigh 

Glad to know that RT is the deciding factor in a film being good or not for the general public. 

Gonna stop since I am bordering on writing things that will get me a warning 😂

We can talk about national treasure 2 more, if RT isn't enough we can talk about imdb or metacritic or whatever you want. If you have problems with accepting reality, that better movie can have better multi than worse movie we can't have a serious conversation...

 

I don't wanna get a warning so i will no write that you made you made a ____ of yourself🤣

 

27 minutes ago, a2k said:

 

 

 

 

Not claiming 5.5x is impossible for Jum3 (and am hoping it gets there), just that it's the higher-end of expectations. 

 

Of course it's higher-end but we can agree that is possible maybe even a likely scenario so i don't understand why narniadis have a such big problem with it.

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2 minutes ago, a2k said:

fri bump of 35% from thu doesn't seem inflated. 9 would make it same as thu.

In all actuality the thursday was inflated 😂😂 jk, that was another weird holiday calendar, but the increase for Friday would have appeared higher with a more normal Thursday from a midweek opener. 

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