Jumanji: The Next Level l Sony l December 13, 2019 l 10th Most Profitable Movie of 2019

[The Horror of Lucas Films]

This will be FK all over again, people here making absurd predictions based on the "lack of buzz", and then it finishes with great numbers.

[The GOAT]

2 minutes ago, The Horror of Lucas Films said:

This will be FK all over again, people here making absurd predictions based on the "lack of buzz", and then it finishes with great numbers.

Doubt. 475 max.

[narniadis]

21 minutes ago, The Horror of Lucas Films said:

This will be FK all over again, people here making absurd predictions based on the "lack of buzz", and then it finishes with great numbers.

There is a difference in lack of buzz and actual lack of big sales. 

Some of yall on both sides are forgetting how films do behave this time of year. 

I am in the 250m camp, a solid performance for any film over the Christmas season and quite obtainable with a 50m opening if it holds well. Its not in any way shape or form going to replicate the legs of the last film (which look way better due to the Wednesday opening) and in comparison it also has a 200m film opening on its 2nd weekend. It will drop a ton on the weekend before recovering for the weekdays. A bomb, no or at least I hope not, but it is definitely going to be a new check mark in the 400m sequel problem box that Frozen has managed to avoid (if only slightly by some.) 

 

All that said, to get to 50m its presales really have to pick up this week. 

Edited December 9, 2019 by narniadis

[MrFanaticGuy34]

17 minutes ago, The Horror of Lucas Films said:

This will be FK all over again, people here making absurd predictions based on the "lack of buzz", and then it finishes with great numbers.

Or worse...lack of love for the final product.

 

I agree. I think some people here are basing Jumanji 3’s underperformance primarly of it fearfully being a critical disappointment. Why must every blockbuster...who some assume ”lack of buzz”, ”lack of hype” potentially equal ”lack of love” for this film, despite not having been released in America yet.

 

Maybe they assume that this film is/will be so disappointing that they might spin the ”We knew the movie had lesser hype to begin with, because the audience didn’t like the film to begin with”.

 

The ”JW: Fallen Kingdom”-comparison is interesting though in terms of sequels to a predecessor that had the ”hit the lightning in a bottle”-factor (in JW’s case, that film had 14 years of wait after JP3). But FK made $1.3B WW, despite a lesser reception. So while Jumanji 3 won’t get to that film’s numbers, i just can’t see this doing so horrificly bad either. If ”The Next Level” does franchise-killing numbers...then the potential plans for a fourth Jumanji-film in general, might be close of being shot dead.

 

When was the last time a sequel did so underwhelmingly bad at the box office that a potential for a next sequel was scrapped?

[Barnack]

Jumanji 2 was so leggy that it is very hard to judge this one opening weekend, i.e. it could beat the first OW by a big amount and still drop by more than 35% easily.

 

At the end it is far from a AAA franchise entry, neither in budget or franchise powers, the numbers need to be taken into context, a 500-600M (a China less 500-600M) would still be excellent for this and still greenlight a sequel.

Edited December 9, 2019 by Barnack

[Barnack]

23 minutes ago, MrFanaticGuy34 said:

When was the last time a sequel did so underwhelmingly bad at the box office that a potential for a next sequel was scrapped?

I imagine that with the transaction there were maybe no sequel plan but potentially Dark Phoenix, Terminator, Lego movie 2, Godzilla, etc....

[a2k]

Last weekends OS-China markets openings have been a relief to say the least. Let's see how it legs it.

[The Horror of Lucas Films]

53 minutes ago, narniadis said:

There is a difference in lack of buzz and actual lack of big sales. 

Some of yall on both sides are forgetting how films do behave this time of year. 

I am in the 250m camp, a solid performance for any film over the Christmas season and quite obtainable with a 50m opening if it holds well. Its not in any way shape or form going to replicate the legs of the last film (which look way better due to the Wednesday opening) and in comparison it also has a 200m film opening on its 2nd weekend. It will drop a ton on the weekend before recovering for the weekdays. A bomb, no or at least I hope not, but it is definitely going to be a new check mark in the 400m sequel problem box that Frozen has managed to avoid (if only slightly by some.) 

 

All that said, to get to 50m its presales really have to pick up this week. 

FK also had "lack of big presales" before the release, if you actually check the Buzz thread, you'll see a lot of people there claiming it wouldn't even cross $90m OW based on the level of pre-sales and we all saw what happened. These family movies (especially on Holidays) won't follow any pattern you have.

 

And I doubt it will go below $300m DOM.

[narniadis]

2 minutes ago, The Horror of Lucas Films said:

FK also had "lack of big presales" before the release, if you actually check the Buzz thread, you'll see a lot of people there claiming it wouldn't even cross $90m OW based on the level of pre-sales and we all saw what happened. These family movies (especially on Holidays) won't follow any pattern you have.

 

And I doubt it will go below $300m DOM.

I am not new, was well aware of the issues back then and also know that FK represents a typical walk up friendly franchise as does Jumanji. 

I am also aware that presales this year have shown consistent data about when films arent making the big hopes and expectations (cough Pokemin cough). 

Again, I am not in the bombing camp, never have been but if it performs like FK imagine my surprise when it makes my predicted / hope for arena of the 250m area. 

It also as I posted in this thread a few days ago is reminiscent of the difference between Home Alone 1 and 2 which again % wise based on the drop would put it in the 250 area. I hope and want it to make 300m+ as it would be good for the market as a whole, but the actual data doesnt back it up without crazy unrealistic legs for a sequel. 

[ViewerAnon]

15 minutes ago, The Horror of Lucas Films said:

FK also had "lack of big presales" before the release, if you actually check the Buzz thread, you'll see a lot of people there claiming it wouldn't even cross $90m OW based on the level of pre-sales and we all saw what happened.

It opened 30% lower than its predecessor?

[MrFanaticGuy34]

39 minutes ago, ViewerAnon said:

It opened 30% lower than its predecessor?

FK actually opened at $148M last year.

[narniadis]

54 minutes ago, MrFanaticGuy34 said:

FK actually opened at $148M last year.

Which was -29% off? His point still stands lol. 

Compared with JW15 it did have significantly less noise, making the total opening a nice respite from how badly it couldnt have gone. Especially given the franchise history. 

Edited December 9, 2019 by narniadis

[misafeco]

To be fair, the release date is actually kind of great for this movie. It has one week before TRoS arrives and can make a lot of money during the Christmas period as a counter program. I could see 250M DOM with decent WOM.

[JB33]

Hmm, I was contemplating Spider-Man: Into the Spider-Verse as a possible comp for this but that film had a 10.1x multi off 3.5M previews. Have to think this won't be as frontloaded as that. Or maybe it will. We'll see.

[Alli]

I can't believe they haven't lifted the embargo. The movie is already playing for a few days in a lot of countries

[Ryan Reynolds]

1 positive,  1 negative review on RT

Edited December 10, 2019 by Ryan Reynolds

[cdsacken]

1 hour ago, Alli said:

I can't believe they haven't lifted the embargo. The movie is already playing for a few days in a lot of countries

That's just stupid.

[DAJK]

My dad, a 60 year old who is one of the most cynical moviegoers I've ever met, is beyond excited for this.

 

"Did you hear Jumanji is coming out this month?"

"When is Jumanji out?"

"Is Jumanji out yet?"

"Wanna come visit so we can watch Jumanji?"

[narniadis]

3 hours ago, JB33 said:

Hmm, I was contemplating Spider-Man: Into the Spider-Verse as a possible comp for this but that film had a 10.1x multi off 3.5M previews. Have to think this won't be as frontloaded as that. Or maybe it will. We'll see.

Comp should be a bit better than Spiderman which was frontloaded for the kind of film (animated). That being said, it is a sequel which will dampen the increase. 4m should set it up for 45-50m but that of course is a guess. 

[nick64]

8 hours ago, MrFanaticGuy34 said:

When was the last time a sequel did so underwhelmingly bad at the box office that a potential for a next sequel was scrapped?

Allegiant is the one that comes to mind first. They tried to relegate the final film to a TV movie and even that never happened.

 

Ice Age 5 was also a killer. And Justice League and Solo led to significant franchise change (less connectivity and halting anthology films respectively).