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Eric Dolittle

Jumanji: The Next Level l Sony l December 13, 2019 l Trailer on Page 10!!!

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14 minutes ago, 1Robert1 said:

78% after 36 reviews it's better than Welcome to the Jungle. I don't understand why people predict that this movie do around 400 ww, i'm thinking about at least 700.

Some people just wanted the movie to fail for some reason without knowing the true quality of the film. The trailer and the premise of his new film was always entertaining so I'm not shocked bit of getting it reviews

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Hope people doesn’t automatically assume that every new blockbuster coming out must underperform because ”lack of hype/love” and that they wouldn’t even like a film to begin with. We saw with most billion-dollar films Disney put out this year, and WB’s Joker, that if those films are crowdpleasers & criticpleasers, then of course they’ll be huge.

 

Which makes next year an interesting year for blockbusters.

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Here’s the Critic consensus from RT:

 

Like many classic games, Jumanji: The Next Level retains core components of what came before while adding enough fresh bits to keep things playable.

 

And it’s at 76% so far.

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I still think it can do 300m DOM and 700+ WW, which would be perfectly fine and pretty much guarantee a 3rd movie.  

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Jum2 was 76% and matching that is a pleasant surprise as far as Critics RT goes. IMO sequels like this are deemed unnecessary by the critics and have their work cut out to justify their existence.

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1 hour ago, junkshop36 said:

I still think it can do 300m DOM and 700+ WW, which would be perfectly fine and pretty much guarantee a 3rd movie.  

Yup, that would be a perfectly fine scenario. It's sort of what I envisioned originally. We'll see how it shakes out.

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Got my tickets for Friday instead of Saturday. Looking forward to it. 

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500ww maybe 490 is my worst case scenario. (I admit after I saw China hated it I went with worse case). 600 average, 700 best case.

 

I don't think 300 domestic is possible but 200+ is with good legs.

 

Thing to remember 600+ is still pretty darn profitable.

Edited by cdsacken
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2 hours ago, junkshop36 said:

I still think it can do 300m DOM and 700+ WW, which would be perfectly fine and pretty much guarantee a 3rd movie.  

Its my high hopes for sure, but it doing 250m isnt a failure by any stretch

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With 250m Domestic covers most of the cost from just US. Almost all of foreign revenue will be 40% with China doing so little. I agree say 250 + 375 international isn't a failure. Last year was lightning in a bottle. Crushed the original indexed for inflation.

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2 hours ago, a2k said:

Jum2 was 76% and matching that is a pleasant surprise as far as Critics RT goes. IMO sequels like this are deemed unnecessary by the critics and have their work cut out to justify their existence.

It's not as if the first was considered great or even very good and any sequel would most likely drop from it critically.  Most critics had the first at borderline enjoyable with a 6.2 avg (5.98 top critics)and this one is early at 47 reviews with 6.3 (6.18).

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50 reviews - All Critics

40 F + 10 R

80% 6.25/10

 

11 reviews - Top Critics

10 F + 1 R

91% 6.18/10

:lol:

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I love the attitude that assumes some of us only looked at China.... sigh the non data people on BOT always gotta assume they are right 🤦‍♂️

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Well, the whole thread almost lost its shit at the China numbers and the seemingly low Chinese-Imbd clone score so that might be partly why I think that. 

 

Mostly I see this as a similar situation to Fallen Kingdom, where there were literal people thinking it was going to do 80 or 90 million opening weekend, with not that good presales, and then it proved them wrong and becomes very successful. Time only tells if Jumanji ends up being similar though. Jumanji may not be on the same octave as Jurassic, but this thread and the buzz here are giving me massive deja vu.

Edited by Yandereprime101189
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14 minutes ago, Yandereprime101189 said:

Well, the whole thread almost lost its shit at the China numbers and the seemingly low Chinese-Imbd clone score so that might be partly why I think that. 

 

Mostly I see this as a similar situation to Fallen Kingdom, where there were literal people thinking it was going to do 80 or 90 million opening weekend, with not that good presales, and then it proved them wrong and becomes very successful. Time only tells if Jumanji ends up being similar though. Jumanji may not be on the same octave as Jurassic, but this thread and the buzz here are giving me massive deja vu.

Yes and I can understand/ see that. Its when we actually use FK as a comparison point and it still doesnt match the 300m+ crowd that they ignore the data. Hence why I keep using the 250m mark. Its a solid middle of the road obtainable gross if it opens high enough. But as a legit sequel and not a remake it will not come close to pulling the same legs as Jumanji 17 - a factor that is being blatantly ignored. 

 

As for China, it was shocking due to the fact that expectations where originally higher and then it couldn't keep up to even lowered ones. Our markets really arent similar enough to make across the board comparisons but it should give pause to all sides. 

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10 minutes ago, narniadis said:

Yes and I can understand/ see that. Its when we actually use FK as a comparison point and it still doesnt match the 300m+ crowd that they ignore the data. Hence why I keep using the 250m mark. Its a solid middle of the road obtainable gross if it opens high enough. But as a legit sequel and not a remake it will not come close to pulling the same legs as Jumanji 17 - a factor that is being blatantly ignored. 

 

As for China, it was shocking due to the fact that expectations where originally higher and then it couldn't keep up to even lowered ones. Our markets really arent similar enough to make across the board comparisons but it should give pause to all sides. 

 

I don't personally see Jumanji doing 900 or a billion, but I at least see it do better than others here, at least 600 or 700 global. I actually do think it will be around 260 domestic, I'm just more interested in global in this case.

 

The data between the two may be utterly different but they both share the "It's a sequel to the reboot of a long dormant Jungle-based franchise that made a surprising amount of cash. There doesn't seem to be any buzz. It's gonna fail."

 

Spoiler

And it will probably happen again when the third Jurassic comes out.

 

Edited by Yandereprime101189
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China BO and reception served as a sort of catalyst imo, but my concerns came from a combination of:

low DOM presales

low DOM tracking

terrible China BO

terrible China reception

very weak SK PS (J2 wasn’t big in SK, but it’s a third market that I understand decently well with very concrete issues)

Being a sequel (not to an 80s movie) contributes to worse legs than J2, DOM and OS-C

TROS likely being received better than TLJ (regression to the mean) contributes to worse legs than J2, DOM and OS-C

Coming out a weak before SW instead of a week after contributes to worse legs than J2, DOM and OS-C   
 

Weak OS-C debuts and poor WW-C reception would have been the icing on a disaster cake, but neither were actually a big factor driving my concerns. Basically everything listed above still seems like an issue to me. 
 

Even 44*5.5=242 DOM, same DOM:OS-C ratio as J2 gives 287 OS-C, plus a generous 41 China is 570, and that still looks optimistic to me.

Edited by Arendelle Legion
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