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Best Animated Feature 2018 - Predictions

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With Early Man coming out soon, why not start this thread?

 

Mainstream contenders:

-Early Man

-Sherlock Gnomes

-Isle of Dogs

-Sgt. Stubby

-Duck Duck Goose

-Incredibles 2

-Hotel Transylvania 3

-Teen Titans Go!

-Smallfoot

-Grinch

-Ralph Breaks the Internet
-Spider-Man: Into the Spider-verse

 

Predictions:

1. Incredibles 2

2. Isle of Dogs

3. Ralph Breaks the Internet

4. Spider-Man: Into the Spider-Verse

5. Either Early Man or a GKIDS flick

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-Sherlock Gnomes

-Teen Titans Go

-Duck Duck Goose

-Sgt. Stubby

-Hotel Transylvania 3

 

Spoiler

-Incredibles 2

-Isle of Dogs

-Early Man

-two non-mainstream flicks

 

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Isle of Dogs

Incredibles II

Smallfoot

Non-Mainstream Pick

I'm tempted to add in Ralph bc it's not like two Disney movies haven't been nominated in the same year either, but that + Incredibles are both sequels so...

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Isle of Dogs

Incredibles 2

Ralph Breaks the Internet

Spider-Man: Into the Spider-Verse

Non-mainstream thingy

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This is always one of my favorite categories to look at. Let's see here...

 

1. Isle of Dogs

I think this film is a given. This is mostly because the film will definitely be standing out as a quality feature. That, and the Academy loves stop motion, Fantastic Mr. Fox made it in during a fairly competitive year, and, too be honest, there are more than a few other 2018 animated releases that realistically don't have a chance at being favored over it. This is my number one only because Disney's two sequels are up against each other.

 

2. The Incredibles 2

I think there is a reason why Brad Bird and company are confident enough to make what I perceive to be bold marketing choices such as that Edna Mode poster. I really, really think that a lot of passion is going into this project. I am also starting to think that their script is legitimate, just like the first film's script was. I really do think that it'll surpass expectations.

 

3. Smallfoot

Did the teaser trailer look a little, well, child-friendly? Sure, I'll give you that. But we have proof from past releases that there are a lot of creative minds working at Warner Animation Group, and I really do think they have something great in them that isn't The Lego Movie. I mean, I personally thought the animation in that trailer was pretty good. So I think they're putting passion to it, and that it'll become a surprising hit.

 

4. Early Man

Aardman got both their little seen Pirates film and their little-seen Shaun the Sheep film into this category in some fairly competitive years, so I'm not counting this one out.

 

5. Sgt. Stubby: An American Hero

Please hear me out. When more information about this film and GKids's 2018 slate of films comes out, I'll consider revising my predictions. But in the meantime, I believe in the surprising possibilities of this film. This is the first feature film from a new company called Fun Academy (meaning the chance is there for a type of naive creativity and boldness to strike through), and, well, its genre is a genre that is pretty unusual for an animated film: a war story. Think about it: they haven't shown any footage from possible World War I scenes in the trailer. I'm sure there's bound to be some. And I'm sure those scenes will break new animation ground just by being what they are. So if this film really goes for it... if they allow Logan Lerman to really provide his acting chops... if they choose to be subversive and stick the landing... they could get noticed by the steak-and-potatoes crowd. I'm serious. That same steak-and-potatoes crowd that votes en masse for studd like Darkest Hour may very well have interest in this. So I really don't think this should be counted out of the running just yet. At least not until we A: hopefully get confirmation that that weird narration is nowhere to be found in the actual film (because that'll be a dealbreaker for me, for others, and for voters), and B: know more information about whether or not the film is actually any good.

 

Now here are some that are on the bubble:

 

How the Grinch Stole Christmas

The Boss Baby *...grimaces...* may have proved that this new slew of animation voters are willing to place a massive hit in the lineup because it is more popular than others. So if Illumination can somehow manipulate audiences into thinking their film is good by really nailing that emotional gut-punch of an ending, this might become a threat to a more deserving film.

 

Spider-Man: Into the Spider-Verse

I'm sort of sad about this one. Because it is bound to have a groundbreaking visual style. It kind of already does. But until proven otherwise, the Academy's reluctance to nominate stuff like The Lego Movie and The Lego Batman Movie may be pointing towards a bias against licensed [non-literature] animated features. Here's what I'm saying: The Lego Movie is, on its surface, Lego. Snubbed. The Lego Batman Movie is. On its surface, Lego Batman. Snubbed. So Spider Man: Into the Spider Verse is, on its surface, Spider-Man. Snubbed?

 

Ralph Breaks The Internet

This year in animation seems to be eclectic to allow for two Disney sequels in the same lineup. So I think the overwhelming quality that I'm predicting The Incredibles 2 to have will likely be too much for this one to bear...

 

The Ark and the Aardvark

I don't even know if this will have a qualifying release this year, let alone any other year in the future. But I have some reasons for why it may stand out. It's about animals who help get other animals onto Noah's Ark. It has a fairly star studded cast (including Miles Teller, Aubrey Plaza, Jenny Slate, Stephen Merchant, and Craig Robinson); it's director is John Stevenson (co-director of Kung Fu Panda, director of The Polar Bears [a Coca-Cola short film], and director of Sherlock Gnomes), and one of its screenplay writers- and this is the main reason it's in my honorable mentions at all- is Philip LaZebnik, who was the writer of Pocahontas, The Prince of Egypt, and Mulan. But this one is an honest longshot as an Oscar candidate nonetheless. (It's a long shot to get a wide release nonetheless...)

Edited by slambros

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On 3/10/2018 at 8:57 PM, Isle of Pasta said:

Pretty sure this will be Isle of Dogs’ to lose.

 

I sure hope it is. Whichever film the academy chooses is gonna be telling about what they really stand for, because Isle of Dogs is being positioned as something undeniable. Of course, we'll have to see how The Incredibles 2 and Wreck-it Ralph 2 will fair, but, well, sequels are sequels, and there's only so much initial zeitgeist the filmmakers can recreate. I am absolutely rooting for Isle of Dogs no matter how the rest of the field shakes up.

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The Grinch (if Boss Baby made it, I think it spells a dark future to come for this category)

The Incredibles 2

Isle of Dogs

Spider-Man: Into the Spider-Verse (will see how the film goes over with critics and audiences)

Wreck-it Ralph 2

 

The lack of foreign animated features last year in the line up when the Boss Baby and Ferdinand were nominated gives me the impression that the new batch of Academy voters is a lot more mainstream-oriented (which pisses me off to no end but whatever).

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I've had an interesting though about Spider-Man: Into the Spider-Verse. Another recent Best Animated Feature nominee, Ferdinand, was likely able to get its nomination because of its December 15th release date, which was very close to the date of the close of voting. I think that the late release date may have been a factor in helping Ferdinand get its nomination; that has been the case quite a few nominations (and, sometimes, wins as well) -- especially all the indie films getting last-second limited releases. So with its fairly late wide release, the film may have a better chance at getting a nomination than I previously thought based on Ferdinand's previous success. It might not seem like much, but the elimination of recency bias might be the reason why this Spider-Man film achieves what The Lego Movie couldn't.

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Incredibles 2 (and Wreck it Ralph 2) are most likely not winning. The academy has a hard on for PIXAR/Disney originals but kind of ignores the sequels. Monsters University didn't even get nominated and a year before it Brave with similar middling reviews and lower boxoffice won because it was original. Dory with 90+ RT and making a billion WW also didn't even make the nominations. 

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On 3/23/2018 at 5:50 PM, Jake Gittes said:

lowkey rooting for Early Man to get in. 

I think it can happen, especially if The Pirates got in. The academy LOVES stop motion.

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On 3/18/2018 at 5:23 AM, Joel M said:

Incredibles 2 (and Wreck it Ralph 2) are most likely not winning. The academy has a hard on for PIXAR/Disney originals but kind of ignores the sequels. Monsters University didn't even get nominated and a year before it Brave with similar middling reviews and lower boxoffice won because it was original. Dory with 90+ RT and making a billion WW also didn't even make the nominations. 

 

I think Dory missing was less to do with the sequel nature and more to do with the fact that WDAS had the brutal combo of Zootopia and Moana to go up against. 2016 was just a harsh, harsh year for the competition, and something like Dory which was very well crafted and enjoyable, but didn't have anything to really make it stand out, just fell a bit below the mark. If Dory was the Pixar entry for either 2015 or 2017, it would have pretty easily been nominated and been the likely favorite to win.

 

(Conversely, if Coco or Inside Out ended up in 2016 instead, they'd probably knock something else off. Moana or The Red Turtle, probably.)

 

Projecting 2018 is difficult because we don't know how much of 2017's slate was because of the weaker competition and how much was because of the rules change.

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18 hours ago, A Roc in Time said:

 

I think Dory missing was less to do with the sequel nature and more to do with the fact that WDAS had the brutal combo of Zootopia and Moana to go up against. 2016 was just a harsh, harsh year for the competition, and something like Dory which was very well crafted and enjoyable, but didn't have anything to really make it stand out, just fell a bit below the mark. If Dory was the Pixar entry for either 2015 or 2017, it would have pretty easily been nominated and been the likely favorite to win.

 

(Conversely, if Coco or Inside Out ended up in 2016 instead, they'd probably knock something else off. Moana or The Red Turtle, probably.)

 

Projecting 2018 is difficult because we don't know how much of 2017's slate was because of the weaker competition and how much was because of the rules change.

 

Considering there aren't any WDAS or PIXAR original movies to be released in 2018, Incredibles 2 will get nominated even with just decent reviews. But I don't think it will be the de facto front-runner. Academy not taking sequels seriously most of the time is a real thing.

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12 hours ago, Joel M said:

 

Considering there aren't any WDAS or PIXAR original movies to be released in 2018, Incredibles 2 will get nominated even with just decent reviews. But I don't think it will be the de facto front-runner. Academy not taking sequels seriously most of the time is a real thing.

 

It is, but it might not be for Animated Feature.

 

The Academy tends to go for the film that grossed the most domestically. So when BH6 got the win over HTTYD2, was it because the latter was a sequel or because BH6 was more successful? Same with DM2 and Frozen. (Although, if DM2 had won... yeesh!)

 

2011 is a possible example year in your favor. KFP2 was the highest grossing animated feature of the year, but Rango won the award. However, it was a notably weak year for animation, with nothing from Pixar, and I think only Winnie the Pooh from WDAS, which wasn't nominated.

 

2010, however, TS3 did win, but it was also the highest grossing of the films. (In fact, it was the highest of the year overall.)

 

If we're limiting ourselves to Pixar comparisons, we've got TS3 and Dory which provide contrasting data points. They're both sequels to beloved films, both had a long time since the previous film, and both did gonzo business. One got a nomination and the win, but the other didn't.

 

(Neither Cars 2 or 3 got nominations, but neither was following something beloved or had a long delay before appearing... or did amazing business.)

 

One point that separates Dory from TS3: previous wins by the series. Nemo won in '03, but the first two TS films were released before the BAF happened. So perhaps there was an "award the series" sort of thing going on, too. I dunno. IAC, The Incredibles did win in '04 (ahead of sequel Shrek 2, so... maybe? But that was also following a film that had won, so... hmm.)

 

It's likely they both WOULD have won if it had happened. TS1 would have faced off against Pocahontas, and, uh... A Goofy Movie or Balto? Yow. It's probably a good thing the BAF oscar didn't happen in the mid-90s, because it would have been Disney and Pixar and whatever else managed to get a halfway pathetic theatrical run.

 

'99 would have been more interesting, though. TS2 would have been the odds-on favorite to win, but Tarzan was seen as something of a resurgence for WDAS. South Park also happened, that year, and remains arguably the best combination of critical and box office success for an adult animation. Then there's The Iron Giant, to which there is no end to the deserved praise. And, of course, because of the incredibly long time it took Miramax to release, Princess Mononoke had its US release that year.

 

Seriously, that's one hell of a line-up, assuming all five could have gotten in.

 

Odd tangent aside, though, I think it remains that the data points we have are inconclusive. I'll agree that Incredibles 2 is by no means a shoe-in to win, but as yet there doesn't seem to be a strong alternative. 

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DWA and Blue Sky have no animated films this year so I think Disney and Pixar has a shot of getting in. I wouldn't be surprised if they nominate Smallfoot over Grinch or Spider-Verse. 

 

I'm not sure if the Academy will have two stop motion films nominated but it's not impossible. 

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Isle of Dogs definitely feels like a shoe I'm for a nomination at this point after seeing it. For a win? Let's see how the rest of the year develops. 

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On 3/31/2018 at 2:42 AM, SchumacherFTW said:

Isle of Dogs definitely feels like a shoe I'm for a nomination at this point after seeing it. For a win? Let's see how the rest of the year develops. 

 

I haven't seen it yet, but I'm rooting for it to win for sure.

 

Unfortunately, it has a detraction that may become a detriment: the cultural appropriation controversy. Although this is a much smaller deal than the recent white-washing scandal, some people might put a blindfolded thumbs down on the film because of it. Luckily, as of now, it's less of a major concern and more of a minor worry. And, deservedly so, the film is still grossing fine regardless.

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If it wins, whatever, it's not the end of the world, but I don't think we should let a movie get a pass if it fucks up with race or appropriation because it's good. 

 

I guess i'm not a real film fan because that's the opposite consensus 99% of them make.

Edited by Morieris
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For better or for worse, there's essentially no way (edit: too strong) I think it unlikely Isle of Dogs is going to win, it's an Academy-wide vote.

 

That's the same Academy that saw fit to nominate Boss Baby to the exclusion of at least half a dozen stronger contenders (from the standpoint of critical reception).

 

That's also more-or-less the same Academy that gave the win to Big Hero 6 over Song of the Sea and The Tale of the Princess Kayuga. (As much as I liked BH6 myself - the gap on critical reception between BH6 and the other two is quite large.)

 

I really don't think Isle of Dogs has enough in its favour to overcome the fact it's a not a blockbuster animation, which is clearly the only kind most Academy members can be bothered to watch.

Edited by Jason
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