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BLACK PANTHER WEEKEND THREAD | Current Estimates - 202.4M 3-day / 242.6M 4-day | Record 40.167 Monday; more than TFA!

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Another chart BP is getting good on:

 

1 Dec. 18–20, 2015 Star Wars: The Force Awakens $247,966,675 $233,679,516 94.24%
Alvin and the Chipmunks: The Road Chip $14,287,159
2 Dec. 15–17, 2017 Star Wars: The Last Jedi $220,009,584 $206,607,998 93.91%
Ferdinand $13,401,586
3 May 4–6, 2012 Marvel's The Avengers $207,438,708 $199,332,542 96.09%
Think Like a Man $8,106,166
4 Jun. 12–14, 2015 Jurassic World $208,806,270 $193,192,584 92.52%
Spy $15,613,686
5 May 1–3, 2015 Avengers: Age of Ultron $191,271,109 $184,626,969 96.53%
Furious 7 $6,644,140
6 Feb. 16–18, 2018 Black Panther $192,023,000 $174,773,000 91.02%
Peter Rabbit $17,250,000
7 May 3–5, 2013 Iron Man 3 $174,144,585 $166,633,270 95.69%
Pain and Gain $7,511,315
8 May 6–8, 2016 Captain America: Civil War $179,139,142 $154,650,706 86.33%
The Jungle Book (2016) $24,488,436
9 Jul. 15–17, 2011 Harry Potter and the Deathly Hallows Part 2 $169,189,427 $147,860,882 87.39%
Transformers: Dark of the Moon $21,328,545
           

 

 

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3 minutes ago, spizzer said:

 

Disney with a 27% Sunday drop.  Lowball if I've ever seen one.

They estimate 23.6% not 27%.

3 minutes ago, the beast said:

is it likely for the sunday drop to be half of that?

No idea:lol:

I think 20% has a chance. But better, no idea.

In generell President's Day Sunday seems to help less than Memorial or Labour Day Sunday.

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3 minutes ago, Cmasterclay said:

My two local theaters are just one sample but it's literally sold just as much as Saturday through 9pm today here. That drop seems way too steep IMO. Think it hits about 195

If this area is any indication I think it's almost certainly going to hit the 200M 3-day.  I think it'll get 60M today.  Everything sold out here, basically impossible to see this today.  The weather is better than yesterday too.

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8 minutes ago, narniadis said:

Yes and look who's number was right ;)

66 seems more right than 65 to me when it's 65.8.

 

But mostly im picking on him for being wrong on the direction of estimates Friday.  RTH going 72 to 75 while Gitesh basically lowers to 68-73

Edited by Rumpot
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The next two weeks look dead, I don't think Game Night, which has zero marketing, or Red Sparrow, which looks and sounds bland, are even hitting 20m OW. Tomb Raider and Pacific Rim might not hit it either, and Ready Player One is gonna do bleh. Wrinkle In Time and Rampage are the only movies guaranteed to even make 70m total domestically until Infinity War.

1. Thank god for Black Panther to save the box office

2. Black Panther has room to do 550+

Edited by Cmasterclay
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5 minutes ago, Taruseth said:

They estimate 23.6% not 27%.

No idea:lol:

I think 20% has a chance. But better, no idea.

In generell President's Day Sunday seems to help less than Memorial or Labour Day Sunday.

 

Yeah fixed it - I was still working with the old 66.4M Saturday number.

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Using my predictions for next week, here's what those PTAs for the top ten would be:

 

Black Panther: $20,896 (4,020 theaters)

Game Night: $6,250 (3,200 theaters)

Annihilation: $3,500 (2,000 theaters)

Peter Rabbit: $2,971 (3,500 theaters, down 200)

Jumanji: $2,498 (2,400 theaters, down 400)

Showman: $2,467 (1,500 theaters, down 400)

15:17 to Paris: $1,950 (2,000 theaters, down 1,000)

Fifty Shades Freed: $1,909 (3,300 theaters, down 450)

Every Day: $1,516 (1,650 theaters)
Early Man: $601 (2,494 theaters)

 

Theaters are so fortunate to have Black Panther, because Red Sparrow and Death Wish won't be enough to fully get rid of these low PTA films :jeb!: 

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8 minutes ago, narniadis said:

Yes and look who's number was right ;)

 

I would say RTH was right, once again. Last night he said $66M and the official estimate this morning is $65.89M - pretty much bang on.

 

Peace,

Mike

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26 minutes ago, Mr Impossible said:

Can Peter Rabbit cross $100M DOM? 

It's only slightly behind Gnomeo and Juliet, so using its trajectory, it ends up with $94.2M. Of course, Peter has one more weekend without any family competition than Gnomeo did (Rango came out the first weekend in March, while Wrinkle comes out the second weekend in March), and Sony's notorious for fudging their films to reach the century mark, so...let's just say it has a 50/50 shot.

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3 minutes ago, Cmasterclay said:

The next two weeks look dead, I don't think Game Night, which has zero marketing, or Red Sparrow, which looks and sounds bland, are even hitting 20m OW. Tomb Raider and Pacific Rim might not hit it either, and Ready Player One is gonna do bleh. Wrinkle In Time and Rampage are the only movies guaranteed to even make 70m total domestically until Infinity War.

1. Thank god for Black Panther to save the box office

2. Black Panther has room to do 550+

Game Night was tracking at 15-20M, and given the screenings last week went well, I think it can be on the higher end of that range given it's been ages since the last comedy released. I agree on Red Sparrow though; the mixed reviews have me thinking it'll perform like Atomic Blonde, and legs could be weaker because of how long the film is.

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13 minutes ago, narniadis said:

 

I'm being Sarcastic.... also Rooting for Shape of Water so it would stand to reason that Billboards will win since I haven't backed a winner since the King's Speech back in 2010

I'm rooting for Shape of Water because I want Mexican directors to keep getting Oscars. ROBERT RODRIGUEZ HAS GOT NEXT. ALITA 2019 IT'S GONNA HAPPEN.

 

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1 hour ago, PenguinHyphy said:

Angela Bassett is the perfect example. For instance, She turned down the role that won Halle Berry the Oscar. Now glance at where her career is and then glance at where Halle Berry's career is. It is all about longevity. Too many people believe their own hype and then burn out. Halle Berry is one of the biggest examples of that. 

Well said and great example.:bravo:

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2 minutes ago, WrathOfHan said:

Game Night was tracking at 15-20M, and given the screenings last week went well, I think it can be on the higher end of that range given it's been ages since the last comedy released. I agree on Red Sparrow though; the mixed reviews have me thinking it'll perform like Atomic Blonde, and legs could be weaker because of how long the film is.

I haven't seen even one TV spot for Game Night is the issue. No one knows its coming out. I forgot completely until your post. 


Also, what in the world is the audience for a 2 and a half hour hard R spy movie with no advertised action and meh reviews? The dudes on here who posts an update every time J Law leaves her house? 

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