BLACK PANTHER WEEKEND THREAD | Current Estimates - 202.4M 3-day / 242.6M 4-day | Record 40.167 Monday; more than TFA!

[dxmatrixdt]

Just now, redfirebird2008 said:

Greatest Showman was down around 6.4% on Monday. That's pretty badass. Studio estimate was 27%.

more adult movies rated PG??

[Lordmandeep]

27 minutes ago, Spidey Freak said:

Well, they could have in this case. Why should people really care about Thanos when all he's been doing is sitting on his golden toilet seat for 6 years? People should have been given the chance to get to know the character before the big showdown. The initial rumors about GotG2 being about Gamora and Nebula being hunted down by Thanos's third adopted daughter (speculations were it was Moondragon, Drax's own daughter who Thanos exploited such like he did with Gamora and Nebula) seemed far more interesting than what we actually got in the film. That story would have upped the personal stakes for IW, and movie goers would have known what Thanos was truly capable of, making them be more invested in seeing him take on the combined might of Avengers and Guardians.

 

Anyhoo, there's poetic justice in BP exploding on this level and overshadowing IW after years of Perlmutter's bs. Just find it amusing how the reluctance to highlight women and minority characters in other films, even when said reluctance takes away from the 10 year long story arc you've been building, created this "perfect storm". 

 

I dont think you cant underscore the MCU fanbase role in making this a massive hit as well. 

 

I think the MCU also allowed BP to break out in how it did then it would have (to even beyond Wonder Woman). 

 

1.Marvel is such a trusted brand by audiences due to the MCU. 

2. The film already had a default audience to appeal to (MCU fanbase)

3. He was featured in a 1 billion Dollar film (Civil War).

 

 

What happened this weekend is that you had the MCU fanbase and non superhero audiences come out in droves for this film, which drove it to record success.

 

 

Edited February 20, 2018 by Lordmandeep

[redfirebird2008]

7 minutes ago, Matrix4You said:

wow, so BP might hit close to 300 after Thursday, 400 after 7.5 days.

 

Hmmm...it will already be at 7.5 days through Thursday.

 

1. Thursday preview (0.5 day)
2. Friday
3. Saturday
4. Sunday
5. Monday
6. Tuesday
7. Wednesday
8. Thursday

[aabattery]

January 10, 2018 6:30am

Quote

Industry estimates do not believe at this point in time that Black Panther will emulate Civil War‘s opening despite the strong. If that’s the case, Black Panther would not only  become the highest opening of all-time for a February release, besting Fox/Marvel’s R-rated Deadpool ($132.4M), but the best opening before summer. Currently, non-Disney estimates before tracking believe Black Panther will post a $80M-$85M start with a possible shot at $100M-plus.

January 31, 2018 9:29am

Quote

Industry estimates project that Black Panther will debut to around $120M, possibly as high as $150M over four days. The all-time opening records for February and the Presidents Day holiday belong to Fox/Marvel’s Deadpool ($152.1M).

February 16th, 2018 11:20PM

Quote

Note there is a margin of error when shooting from the hip this early. Tonight’s numbers could be much higher by morning. If Black Panther continues on this pace, it’s looking approximately at $65M for Friday (including Thursday), $161M over three and $180M-plus for four. Again, none of this comes from Disney.

February 17th, 2018 11:53AM

Quote

The first set of estimates are in, and they’re showing that Disney/Marvel’s Black Panther is headed toward a historic weekend with $200M-$205M over four-days, $175M over three.

February 17th, 2018 8:58PM

Quote

Black Panther is now looking at the sixth-best opening of all-time on a three-day-basis with an estimated $185.8M per industry projections Saturday AM and a mind-blowing $213M over four days.

February 18th, 2018 12:13AM

Quote

Late night estimates (not from Disney) indicate that T’Challa is headed to $194M over three-days after a super Saturday night between $66.8M-$68M which is only 11% down from Friday on the high-end. Also if you back out $25.2M Thursday previews from Friday’s $76.4M, Saturday’s business is still technically +33%.  So that means business for Black Panther wasn’t front-loaded. Four-day figures remain a wild forecast for many analysts: They’re certain that Black Panther is expected to clear $220M, but he could fly as high as $230M. Projections at this minute are averaging around $223M

February 18th, 2018 8:05AM

Quote

Disney is reporting Sunday estimates of $192M over three days for Black Panther and $218M over four. However, Black Panther domination is far from over. Industry estimates believe it’s significantly higher at $195.3M three-day for Marvel’s Black Panther and a $225.7M four-day, and that’s because hourlies are flying off the grid, with some analysts’ four-day projections at $230M.

February 19th, 2018 12:05AM

Quote

Disney has verified this morning what we saw in the middle of the night, that T’Challa recorded the second-best Sunday ever at the domestic box office. Its $60.1 million (higher than the industry’s $59.55M estimate last night) ranks only behind the all-time record held by Disney/Lucasfilm’s Star Wars: The Force Awakens ($60.5M on December 20, 2015). The total now pushes Black Panther to a three-day total of $201.8M, still the fifth-best domestic opening of all time after 2012’s Avengers ($207.4M).

Disney does see Black Panther making $235M over four days, which means it will beat the Friday-Monday hauls of of Avengers ($226.3M) and Jurassic World ($234.1M). But there are those in the industry who believe T’Challa has a shot to be the second-highest four-day opener ever with as much as $242M-$245M — behind Star Wars: Force Awakens ($288M) but taking out Star Wars: The Last Jedi ($241.6M).

February 20th, 2018 8:35AM

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Disney has just confirmed what we saw earlier: Marvel’s Black Panther is the second-biggest 4-day opener of all-time at the domestic B.O. with $241.96M, after Force Awakens ($288M) and beating Star Wars: Last Jedi ($241.6M). Monday also marked an all-time record with $40.167M

 

Crazy. It's just been going up and up and up and up and up and up and up and up and up.

[filmlover]

3 minutes ago, aabattery said:

January 10, 2018 6:30am

January 31, 2018 9:29am

February 16th, 2018 11:20PM

February 17th, 2018 11:53AM

February 17th, 2018 8:58PM

February 18th, 2018 12:13AM

February 18th, 2018 8:05AM

February 19th, 2018 12:05AM

February 20th, 2018 8:35AM

 

Crazy. It's just been going up and up and up and up and up and up and up and up and up.

Good stuff, indeed.

[Empire]

Really happy this got the Monday record! 

[acetabulum]

36 minutes ago, SteveJaros said:

 

To me, it's not just the previews. In the wake of TLJ, I get a sense of Star Wars Fatigue. I'd feel that way even if Solo was coming out in December. But in May? IMO, this has flop-alert written all over it. 

 

We'll see ...

I know people are clamoring for a December release instead, but when you think about it, it already has Alita: Battle Angel, Aquaman, Bumblebee, and Mary Poppins, y'all.  Too much direct competition.  Actually, it would be hilarious if they released it 12/14, the same day as Lord & Miller's Spider-Man movie.

 

As it stands, there won't be much competition for Solo until JW comes out a month later.  Maybe Incredibles 2, but that's still June 15th and not as much direct competition.

Edited February 20, 2018 by acetabulum

[Rebeccas]

13 minutes ago, Lordmandeep said:

 

I dont think you cant underscore the MCU fanbase role in making this a massive hit as well. 

 

I think the MCU also allowed BP to break out in how it did then it would have (to even beyond Wonder Woman). 

 

1.Marvel is such a trusted brand by audiences due to the MCU. 

2. The film already had a default audience to appeal to (MCU fanbase)

3. He was featured in a 1 billion Dollar film (Civil War).

 

 

What happened this weekend is that you had the MCU fanbase and non superhero audiences come out in droves for this film, which drove it to record success.

Yeah, I think this is truly a perfect storm situation just like how TFA capitalized on Star Wars fans being hungry as hell and the OT cast being back, BP capitalized on the desire to see diversity on screen + the love for the character in Civil War + Marvel fans in general + critical acclaim. I think Civil War gave this character a lot more visibility than it would've gotten otherwise, like he's not exactly an A-list comic book character. But once he was announced for Civil War and people loved him in the movie, the hype just built from there.

 

I think if BP had come out in lieu of Thor 1/Cap 1, it would've done about as well as those movies did, maybe a little better or worse depending on quality.

 

[ecstasy]

 

[ecstasy]

 

Edited February 20, 2018 by ecstasy

[Rumpot]

1 hour ago, ecstasy said:

What? Where do you live?

Northern VA/DC area.  To be fair if I was willing to sit in the front row I'd have seen it, but I need reasonably good seats and am coordinating for 4 of us

[Mekanos]

Civil War definitely helped Black Panther but given how it's looking to make more money than CW did... I'm thinking if you dropped BP in Phase 3 without the CW role not a whole lot would change. Lower OW, maybe. WOM would be the same.

Edited February 20, 2018 by Mekanos

[ecstasy]

2 minutes ago, Rumpot said:

Northern VA/DC area.  To be fair if I was willing to sit in the front row I'd have seen it, but I need reasonably good seats and am coordinating for 4 of us

Those areas had so many sell outs. Friday night there were shows in D.C. at 2:30 am.  Right now there are sell outs during the day. 

[Taruseth]

25 minutes ago, Matrix4You said:

wow, so BP might hit close to 300 after Thursday, 400 after 7.5 days.

$300M would be amazing, that would be roughly $20M each day. That would be impressiv,. considering there are no Holidays to help out and it already grossed $240M. So for that it might need something like 24 18 18, that would be amazingly good and the second highest Opening Week of all time and I don't think that's impossible.

 

And I think you meant 10.5 Days for 400M so after sunday. That could be possible if it drops just around 50% or less. (I think there is a small possibility for a drop smaller than 50%)

[grey ghost]

29 minutes ago, Lordmandeep said:

 

I dont think you cant underscore the MCU fanbase role in making this a massive hit as well. 

 

I think the MCU also allowed BP to break out in how it did then it would have (to even beyond Wonder Woman). 

 

1.Marvel is such a trusted brand by audiences due to the MCU. 

2. The film already had a default audience to appeal to (MCU fanbase)

3. He was featured in a 1 billion Dollar film (Civil War).

 

 

What happened this weekend is that you had the MCU fanbase and non superhero audiences come out in droves for this film, which drove it to record success.

 

 

 

I agree. 

 

BP had pre-sold geek cred and street cred thanks to MCU's popularity and Marvel's legacy in general.

 

Having said that if the artist involved didn't hit the right notes the whole thing falls apart. They deserve much of the credit.

[ecstasy]

46 minutes ago, SteveJaros said:

With the 4-day weekend out of the way, we now get to find out how "front-loaded" Black Panther is. A good yardstick is probably Jurassic World, which opened with almost identical numbers. JW certainly wasn't front loaded, IIRC, it carried on making $20m + a day even on the Tuesday - Thursday weekdays.

 

Will be interesting ... 

As others have said JW was released in the summer with summer weekdays to help. Having said that, BP is primed to have some big weekdays. Will they all be over 20m? I don't think so. But they will definitely come close to matching JW summer weekdays and all. It's off to a good start.

[Rebeccas]

3 minutes ago, Mekanos said:

Civil War definitely helped Black Panther but given how it's looking to make more money than CW did... I'm thinking if you dropped BP in Phase 3 not a whole lot would change. Lower OW, maybe. WOM would be the same.

I think it would've been more like a Wonder Woman run. This OW is nuts though. I think Civil War absolutely blew the door open for a number like that.

[Lordmandeep]

2 minutes ago, grey ghost said:

 

I agree. 

 

BP had pre-sold geek cred and street cred thanks to MCU's popularity and Marvel's legacy in general.

 

Having said that if the artist involved didn't hit the right notes the whole thing falls apart. They deserve much of the credit.

 

For sure his performance in Civil War likely pre sold the film to the MCU fanbase. 

 

I agree it a perfect combination.

 

I think BP changes the game in Hollywood but I would caution that a lot of things went right for BP to break out this big. 

Edited February 20, 2018 by Lordmandeep

[ecstasy]

2 minutes ago, grey ghost said:

 

I agree. 

 

BP had pre-sold geek cred and street cred thanks to MCU's popularity and Marvel's legacy in general.

 

Having said that if the artist involved didn't hit the right notes the whole thing falls apart. They deserve much of the credit.

But there again is where you give Marvel their due as well. They know how to pick the right actors for their characters. And yes, those actors were fantastic.

[ecstasy]

7 minutes ago, Mekanos said:

Civil War definitely helped Black Panther but given how it's looking to make more money than CW did... I'm thinking if you dropped BP in Phase 3 without the CW role not a whole lot would change. Lower OW, maybe. WOM would be the same.

Agreed. BP had the benefit of debuting with Captain America and Tony Stark. Civil War was his coming out party.