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BLACK PANTHER WEEKEND THREAD | Current Estimates - 202.4M 3-day / 242.6M 4-day | Record 40.167 Monday; more than TFA!

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I could see BP pulling a mix of a Fury Road/Get Out style of awards runs.  Both of those were stretched, less so than BP.

 

But, if BP misses I don’t think a comic book movie will ever get a nomination.  It’s about as good of a funny book movie as you’ll get (as well as about as awards baity as one can get too).

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5 minutes ago, The Mad Panda said:

I could see BP pulling a mix of a Fury Road/Get Out style of awards runs.  Both of those were stretched, less so than BP.

 

But, if BP misses I don’t think a comic book movie will ever get a nomination.  It’s about as good of a funny book movie as you’ll get (as well as about as awards baity as one can get too).

No its not anywhere near the best of the genre. Acting is not award worthy , visuals are not ground breaking either. Its a simple story too.

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1 hour ago, Ryan Reynolds said:

No its not anywhere near the best of the genre. Acting is not award worthy , visuals are not ground breaking either. Its a simple story too.

Your opinion, but the critical consensus (big factor for awards players) is that it is.

Edited by The Mad Panda
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43 minutes ago, MovieMan89 said:

Giving it a Tuesday hold about 10% better than Deadpool's, and then roughly following Deadpool's holds through Sunday would make the second weekend record possible:

 

Tue: 27m (-32%)

Wed: 21 (-23%)

Thu: 20 (-5%)

Friday: 43 (+115%)

Sat: 64 (+52%)

Sun: 42 (-34%)

 

Weekend: 149m

 

:ohmygod:

True Friday/Saturday/Sunday summed to what, $177mm? So for the weekend you're looking for -16% week-on-week excluding previews, and -26% including previews(!), comparing against 1) Opening Weekend 2) Holiday Weekend 3) Deadpool dropped 57%, so you must be doing some bizarre gymnastics to say "roughly" following Deadpool results in a 32% better weekend hold 4) Leggiest of all leggy CBM in Wonder Woman had a 43% drop.

 

There's room to praise Black Panther without just veering off into absurdity.

Edited by BugsBunny
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14 minutes ago, ZeeSoh said:

It should atleast be in contention for

 

- Make up and Hairstyling

- Costume Design

- Soundtrack

- Score

- Original Song

This.  For a lot of reasons it could be an academy favorite.  Depending on what the competition looks like for the rest of the year, I could see it taking 4 oscars in those categories.

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1 hour ago, Matrix4You said:
TOTAL (90 MOVIES): $285,948,779 +103.6% 38,344 -6,958 $7,457  

 

This weekend had 8,000 new theater counts come in and lost a net of 7,000.  so about 15,000 theater counts from movies last week were lost.  New product this week will be about 7,000 incoming.  The overall theater count number for next weekend should be at least 40,000 so there will probably be a net loss of no more than 5,000.  Probably some expansions for Phantom Thread etc. too!

Is the Tuesday number going in this thread or another one?  I will do the theater counts later which will give accurate predictions for next weekend.  Then I will show those and have a fair prediction of what the totals will look like come next Sunday.

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2 minutes ago, BugsBunny said:

True Friday/Saturday/Sunday summed to what, $177mm? So for the weekend you're looking for -16% week-on-week excluding previews, and -26% including previews(!), comparing against 1) Opening Weekend 2) Holiday Weekend 3) Deadpool dropped 57%, so you must be doing some bizarre gymnastics to say "roughly" following Deadpool results in a 32% better weekend hold 4) Leggiest of all leggy CBM in Wonder Woman had a 43% drop.

 

There's room to praise Black Panther without just veering off into absurdity.

Not doing "bizarre gymnastics" at all to get those numbers. I explained exactly what I did: a 10% better Tuesday drop then Deadpool, and then I did pretty much follow its Wed-Sun holds. Here ya go if you don't believe me:

http://www.boxofficemojo.com/movies/?page=daily&id=deadpool2016.htm

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1 hour ago, Rman823 said:

At this point I don’t think any month is a

dump month. 

I think you'll still have weak spots on the calendar, late August can be pretty deadly as well as late October and early December but I think it's been proven in the last few years that $100-200m OW is possible in any month. IT and American Sniper's OW are insane considering the second highest OW of their respective months don't come even close. 

56 minutes ago, YourMother the Edgelord said:

January or October is next to break the month curse. 

October still doesn't have a OW higher than $55m, I suspect that'll change in the next year, I'm surprised neither WB or Marvel have released a superhero film in that month yet. Maybe October for a Batman related film?

 

 

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If Crash can get a nomination then Black Panther can get a nomination. (i could probably list dozens of shitty movies that got nominated)

 

But if I had to choose from a snob trophy and BP making 1.2 billion and becoming a global phenomenon then I think the choice is obvious.

 

:hahaha:

Edited by grey ghost
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3 minutes ago, Jonwo said:

October still doesn't have a OW higher than $55m, I suspect that'll change in the next year, I'm surprised neither WB or Marvel have released a superhero film in that month yet. Maybe October for a Batman related film?

I think Halloween will break it and then some but true.

 

Also Jungle Book (Disney) was supposed to be released in October 2015. That could’ve easily took the record.

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I highly doubt it'll get nominated for best picture or director or any acting nominations, at best I think it could get nominated for adapted screenplay but who knows. I feel like it's probably a shoe-in for costume design and some other technicals, and I would LOVE Kendrick to get nominated for an oscar, even if it were for All the Stars or Pray for Me which are two of his worst songs, that would be the most exciting thing out to come out of any of this.

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3 minutes ago, grey ghost said:

If Crash can get a nomination then Black Panther can get a nomination. (i could probably list dozens of shitty movies that got nominated)

 

But if I had to choose from a snob trophy and BP making 1.2 billion and becoming a global phenomenon then I think the choice is obvious.

 

:hahaha:

Obviously it’s guaranteed a nomination.  After all, there has never been a movie greater than Black Panther (check the link 2 posts above what I replied to and prepare to literally lol)

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