Biggest Surprise of the Decade Is?...

[mahnamahna]

My top 15 for 2009-2018's most surprising box-office performances:

 

1. The Greatest Showman (I don't care about its OW only being $8.8 million - with next-to-no Oscar buzz and a 3.5x being considered 'great' legs in 2017-2018, this is handily on its way to nearly a 20x; don't think we'll see a performance like this from a non-Oscar contender ever again) 
2. The Blind Side (totally unexpected blockbuster - if it had gotten more serious Oscar buzz beyond Best Actress, it might have legged its way to $300-305 million DOM and finished above New Moon despite opening a good $108 million lower; $300 million+ DOM for a feel-good, sentimental sports and family drama is crazy)
3. American Sniper (almost no one predicted more than $150-170 million DOM for this; it did $350 million DOM as an R-rated war drama in an era when adult-skewing dramas only do $75 million+ DOM with Oscar buzz, for the most part)
4. Get Out (while The Conjuring changed the narrative about horror films not being able to go beyond a 2.5x, this ended up being the first horror film with spectacular legs (4.5x or above) since The Ring in 2002. Even with its Oscar buzz, $175 million DOM for a low-budget horror comedy thriller tackling race issues is crazy to think about - 2017 will be remembered as the year of horror breakouts with 4 huge hits, Annabelle 2 counting as one since who woulda thought $100 million+ DOM was a possibility for a horror sequel where the original did $84 million DOM?) 
5. Jumanji - Welcome to the Jungle (since this is a crowdpleasing family film released in the holidays and given essentially 5 weekends to itself since Paddington 2 fell flat and nothing else until Feb 9 had any real family appeal, I put Get Out ahead of it, but this has performed like NATM on steroids. This hit the perfect zeitgeist of TLJ's middling WOM and Greatest Showman's unlikely success story creating enough sellouts to make Jumanji a good alternative for its first 8-9 weekends; it'll likely stay in the top 10 until 3/9 or 3/16, so this has performed remarkably well) 
6. Frozen (since this was a Disney princess film that opened to $95 million over its 5-day, I didn't think it started low enough to put it into the top 5 surprises, but its performance is still shocking; its first few weeks of release indicated very little about what its run from Christmas week on would be like, but then it had a nearly 50% increase and never really slowed down afterwards, like Jumanji; its holds against LEGO Movie and Mr. Peabody were especially impressive) 
7. Zootopia (this film's run is similar to Finding Nemo, so I wouldn't say it should go any higher than this, but its 4.5x from a $75 million OW stands out in an era when critically-acclaimed animated films can't seem to get a 4x like they used to; despite opening to less than half of BvS's OW, it finished $11 million above it) 
8. The Proposal (this is the first of three baffling box-office runs for me; it had mediocre reviews, it came out as Up and The Hangover were two original films with higher acclaim achieving success at the box office, TF2 opened to $200 million DOM for its 5-day... yet this managed nearly a 5x from a $33 million OW... really would like to know how such a vanilla rom-com became a mini-phenomenon) 
9. Paul Blart - Mall Cop (this run is almost as surprising, but most everything from January-February 2009 succeeded, so it's not as impressive as The Proposal's success in a busy Summer 2009 slate; as a critically-panned comedy, even with family appeal and a MLK-inflated OW, $90-100 million DOM should have been its ceiling; somehow it got to nearly $150 million DOM...) 
10. Taken (this run is the least surprising of the three smaller breakouts lost in the shadow of The Blind Side and The Hangover back in 2009, but its roughly 6x as an above-average action thriller launched a trilogy, a TV series and Liam Nesson's emergence as an action star in his mid-50s/early-60s) 
11. The Hangover (while lots of people expected it to do 30/110, its 6x from a $45 million OW wasn't really expected; it proved to be a catalyst for why almost every comedy today gets an R rating when the 2000s had been defined by comedies, horrors and action thrillers treading the thin line between PG-13 and R, just barely sneaking in as a PG-13) 
12. Wonder Woman (while the best 2nd weekend drop for a SH movie since Spidey 1 and The Incredibles certainly stood out, and its staying power stands out in the current frontloaded era, I can't really be utterly shocked by a big-budget tentpole with critical acclaim and stellar WOM doing $400 million+ DOM) 
13. Jurassic World (same as WW, it's hard to be shocked at a crowdpleaser doing $450 million+ DOM; the biggest surprise was its OW and finishing above Avengers 1; it proved to be the most casual of any of the $175 million+ openers so far) 
14. Bridesmaids (in a disappointing box-office year where every major hit seemed to do $175-225 million DOM, this became a huge success despite Hangover 2 and Bad Teacher threatening to significantly reduce its late legs; it also proved to be one of the rare comedies today to actually receive Golden Globe nods and get some Oscar nods as well) 
15. Guardians of the Galaxy (only surprising because it happened in August and did so as an unknown property, unknown to be almost akin to some of Pixar's earliest - critically acclaimed, but a new world and story to explore; its 3.6x was impressive, even if earned in the August-September frame where it's easier to hold well) 

[Jandrew]

11 hours ago, MCKillswitch123 said:

Where the hell is Jurassic World on that poll? One mad nutcase club aside, no one ever even dreamed the opening that it had, and much less the DOM total.

There was plenty of precedent for Jurassic World. Yes no one saw a $200M OW, but it was still a Jurassic Park movie that looked poised to do at least $120-130 OW if I remember correctly. 

 

The point of this thread was to highlight movies that "came out of nowhere", and I don't feel like Jurassic did. Something like Blind Side or Sniper yes, completely left field cases. Jurassic was more left center field.

[Jandrew]

Oh yeah, totally forgot about Paul Blart. That had $35m-$55m total written all over it. January 2009 was a big surprise itself. Paul Blart, Taken, and Gran Torino was back to back to back WTFness.

[Cmasterclay]

I'm going with two movies that I had really high predictions for, actually. I predicted in the week before release that American Sniper could potentially do 50m PW and 200. People called me insane. It was insane - that was really really high! It handily blew past both those numbers by massive margins. Unprecedented. Jurassic World, same deal. I was at 130 OW for it at a time when most people were predicting around 100-110 at most. I had one of the higher predictions on the boards. But I never, ever, ever would have predicted THAT. 

[Thrylos 7]

IT.

[Jandrew]

Don't really get the love for IT. I thought everyone was pretty much in agreement after the first trailer that it was going to obliterate the fall season.

[That One Girl]

Just now, Jandrew said:

Don't really get the love for IT. I thought everyone was pretty much in agreement after the first trailer that it was going to obliterate the fall season.

 

Sure, but no one expected it to do 120M OW and hit 300M+.  I was championing the film more than most people here (I predicted around 290M) and not even I expected that much

[Jandrew]

4 minutes ago, That One Guy said:

 

Sure, but no one expected it to do 120M OW and hit 300M+.  I was championing the film more than most people here (I predicted around 290M) and not even I expected that much

But is it really the most surprising though? I think Jumanji is better. Everyone's entitled to their own opinion of course, I just feel like movies like IT and Jurassic, we had a feeling. Blind Side was a literal blind side. Probably the most meta name of any movie.

 

Edited February 18, 2018 by Jandrew

[That One Girl]

I’m still saying Greatest Showman.  Flop on opening weekend went to a mega hit with crazy good WOM

[La Binoche]

Last decade was undoubtedly MY BIG FAT GREEK WEDDING.  

I cant pick one for this decade... 

[Kvikk Lunsj]

The biggest surprises 

American Sniper This came out of nowhere. Nobody was it predicted it to that well. It will most likely be the last time a nonfranchise movie will win the year which is really sad when you think of it

The Hunger Games

Get Out

Jumanji 

[Ethan Hunt]

Jurassic is actually a pretty good choice. Pretty sure that at least doubled if not trippled most people's expectations

[Cmasterclay]

Greatest Showman is actually probably my number three. It's heading for like 175 mill, at least 125 above my expectation there, which to scale is alot. I predicted over 100 for Get Out and over 200 for Jumanji so, while those were a surprise, they weren't the kind of mega breakout stunners I'd put there. 

[MCKillswitch123]

52 minutes ago, Jandrew said:

There was plenty of precedent for Jurassic World. Yes no one saw a $200M OW, but it was still a Jurassic Park movie that looked poised to do at least $120-130 OW if I remember correctly. 

 

The point of this thread was to highlight movies that "came out of nowhere", and I don't feel like Jurassic did. Something like Blind Side or Sniper yes, completely left field cases. Jurassic was more left center field.

I thought the point of this thread was to highlight "the biggest surprise of the decade", and as such, there was a 70M difference between JW's actual number and its optimistic predictions. Yes, it was a Jurassic Park movie w/OW predictions in the 120-130 range, but noooooooooo one saw it reaching 200 million in 3 days (and if I recall correctly, most DOM predictions stalled in mid to high 200's total), much less breaking the OW record, and even less making more DOM than The Avengers and almost as much as Titanic. Few things were as shocking as Jurassic World's - hence one of the biggest surprises of the decade, if not THE surprise if you were to ask me.

Edited February 18, 2018 by MCKillswitch123

[Ethan Hunt]

I called The Greatest Showman's success btw guys. Just so you remember

[Jandrew]

7 minutes ago, MCKillswitch123 said:

I thought the point of this thread was to highlight "the biggest surprise of the decade", and as such, there was a 70M difference between JW's actual number and its optimistic predictions. Yes, it was a Jurassic Park movie w/OW predictions in the 120-130 range, but noooooooooo one saw it reaching 200 million in 3 days (and if I recall correctly, most DOM predictions stalled in mid to high 200's total), much less breaking the OW record, and even less making more DOM than The Avengers and almost as much as Titanic. Few things were as shocking as Jurassic World's - hence one of the biggest surprises of the decade, if not THE surprise if you were to ask me.

I said you're entitled to your opinion. I didn't call anybody right or wrong.

 

Spoiler

 

Edited February 18, 2018 by Jandrew

[MCKillswitch123]

3 minutes ago, Jandrew said:

I said you're entitled to your opinion. I didn't call anybody right or wrong.

 

  Hide contents

 

Well, I only pointed out my opinion too. Didn't call anyone right or wrong either.

 

Spoiler

 

[MrGlass2]

53 minutes ago, Jandrew said:

Don't really get the love for IT. I thought everyone was pretty much in agreement after the first trailer that it was going to obliterate the fall season.

Waiting for the trailer (or tracking while you're at it) doesn't really count for what is or isn't a surprise at the box office. Rather it is what you expected when the movie was first announced*, or at least one year before release.

 

(* If you even noticed it, obviously it is an even bigger surprise if you never heard of the project)

 

I will also pick American Sniper.

 

 

[Fanboy]

In terms of OMG LEGS, Jumanji. Sure, The Greatest Showman's multiplier is astounding in 2017/2018, but the sheer size of Jumanji is crazy. It's a sequel to a film that made $100M ($200M adjusted for inflation), doesn't star any of the original cast, most of the kids who watched the first one 22 years ago are now in their 30s and it still sold twice the amount of tickets, competing with the sequel to the highest grossing film of all time. It's Wednesday opening was less than half of Frozen's, yet it will end up with a similar total. Pretty impressive considering Frozen was one of the most impressive runs in the past few years. 

In terms of opening weekend, Jurassic World. I, and a lot of other people were expecting it to open to maybe half of what it actually did a few days before release. I remember my jaw dropping when the preview numbers coming in, and then again when the Friday estimates came in and kept increasing. And then again when the Saturday estimates came in. And then again when the actuals came in and it ended up breaking The Avenger's opening weekend record. 

In terms of build up to release, probably the Hunger Games. Predictions ended up going from $70M at the beggining of March to $130-$140M before it opened. 

Edited February 18, 2018 by Fanboy

[mahnamahna]

If I were to expand into a top 25 for 2000-present, I'd say:

Spoiler

1. My Big Fat Greek Wedding (an indie film with next-to-no Oscar buzz doing $380 million DOM adjusted is nothing short of a WOM phenomenon; unlike TGS, it didn't have a major studio capable of releasing tons of ads for the film; it became a grassroots movement) 
2. The Greatest Showman
3. Fahrenheit 9/11 (slightly more impressive since Michael Moore's previous output hadn't done anywhere close to $120 million DOM; also as a documentary, no matter how entertaining and inaccurate it was, its audience would be limited) 
4. The Passion of the Christ (much more out of the blue than Sniper; Sniper had WB's marketing efforts, Eastwood as a respected director and Bradley Cooper as a likable lead; Passion had a relatively unknown cast and a slightly less respected than Eastwood (back in 2004) releasing at the end of February in a time before Deadpool, LEGO Movie, LEGO Batman, Fifty Shades, SB2, Kingsman 1 and Black Panther made it passe to release a big film; $370 million for a mid-budget epic is remarkable) 
5. The Blind Side
6. American Sniper 
7. Jumanji - Welcome to the Jungle
8. The Ring ($130 million DOM from a $15 million OW is unheard of for the horror genre; for 15 years, this film's performance stood out as the only non-PA1 horror to get a 5x from a typical wide release from the get-go) 
9. March of the Penguins (nearly $100 million DOM when adjusted for inflation... Morgan Freeman's narration just had that kind of draw, but a nature doc has never before and likely never again achieved this kind of success) 
10. The Polar Express (despite its extremely disappointing OW sandwiched between The Incredibles and National Treasure/SpongeBob, it pulled a mini-mini-mini Greatest Showman and achieved high enough numbers via late legs, re-releases and home video to become the last true modern Christmas favorite) 
11. Get Out 
12. Paranormal Activity (this film's unique distribution makes its legs a little less impressive than The Ring or Get Out, but very much a grassroots sensation spawning a franchise) 
13. Frozen
14. Zootopia
15. The Proposal
16. Paul Blart - Mall Cop 
17. Wild Hogs (a guilty pleasure of mine, but seriously, how did this reach nearly $170 million DOM?) 
18. Taken 
19. Shrek (the surprise factor goes down significantly when you consider how fresh it felt, its stellar WOM and lack of family-friendly competition; its 6x+ is striking) 
20. Night at the Museum (before Jumanji, there was NATM; it captured the big-spectacle whimsy of Chris Columbus' earlier efforts like Home Alone and Mrs. Doubtfire back in 2006/2007; Ben Stiller in his prime, but still, $140-160 million DOM would have been the ceiling using normal holiday projections) 
21. Borat (a hard-R indie comedy on the verge of NC-17 doing $25 million OW from around 800 theaters is crazy; its subsequent 2nd-weekend increase even crazier) 
22. National Treasure (how'd a guilty pleasure starring Nicolas Cage get $200 million+ DOM adjusted? I love the movie, but in one of the most crowded family marketplaces of the 21st century along with November 2011, its success and the success of Incredibles/Polar Express/Kranks/SpongeBob/Lemony Snicket is quite remarkable - probably the last year movie attendance came close to matching 2002/2003 levels) 
23. Wedding Crashers (Even $120-130 million DOM would have been a solid performance; this also paved the way for more R-rated comedies to get the greenlight, and once Judd Apatow hit the scene in 2007, it became consistently offered until The Hangover in 2009) 
24. Gran Torino (the premise and potential for this to be Clint Eastwood's final film makes this much less of a surprise than the other 2 January 2009 breakouts, but still crazy, nonetheless) 
25. Chicken Run (considering most stop-motion films stop at $50 million DOM or so, this film's performance is definitely surprising)