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Black Panther Wednesday 15 mill

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$120m? That’s nuts. Though this is the first movie where I have multiple people asking me to go see it with them. And they’ve seen it already. I’ll be supporting Annihilation this weekend instead though...but it’d be awesome if Black Panther can hold that well. 

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I, for one will never underestimate this movie again. Last week BOM predicted 212 over four days and I thought it was crazy talk. So yeah, 120 it is. 

 

Taking a quick glance at AMC app, I think this movie will either go up today or stay relatively stable. There’ve been a few more sell outs than yesterday. 

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I know no one here cares, and I don't really care at all either except to see if it can cross 100m or not, but Fifty Shades Freed is still trucking along right near that 100m marker.  FSF actually had a better Wed drop than Darker did, if not by much:

 

Wed   $1,389,580
-25.5% / -63.4%
$94,634,810 / 13
$1,228,780
-23.4% / -88.6%
$81,464,360 / 13

 

Still making less per day since it was from a lower total though.

 

Doing a quick check, if FSF follows FSD's drops exactly from here on out, I get approx 98m (unless I messed up somewhere).

 

Question is, is that within fudge factor area and does Universal care enough to limp it over the line?

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2 minutes ago, Porthos said:

I know no one here cares, and I don't really care at all either except to see if it can cross 100m or not, but Fifty Shades Freed is still trucking along right near that 100m marker.  FSF actually had a better Wed drop than Darker did, if not by much:

 

Wed   $1,389,580
-25.5% / -63.4%
$94,634,810 / 13
$1,228,780
-23.4% / -88.6%
$81,464,360 / 13

 

Still making less per day since it was from a lower total though.

 

Doing a quick check, if FSF follows FSD's drops exactly from here on out, I get approx 98m (unless I messed up somewhere).

 

Question is, is that within fudge factor area and does Universal care enough to limp it over the line?

Hopefully not. Most movies that finished around 100 either did so naturally or had a significant expansion near the end to do so. I don't see 50S getting an expansion. Think it will need to get there on its own. 

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56 minutes ago, Ethan Hunt said:

following Deadpool would put it at like 98M for the weekend

Yeah I'm going with a number more around there. The Friday bump would have to be pretty substantial for it to get to $120M.

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4 minutes ago, MovieMan89 said:

Hopefully not. Most movies that finished around 100 either did so naturally or had a significant expansion near the end to do so. I don't see 50S getting an expansion. Think it will need to get there on its own. 

Are you saying you don't think Easter Weekend is in the Fifty Shades wheelhouse? :thinking:

 

(Could make a couple of dirty jokes here, but I'm refraining for once. :lol:)

 

Though, come to think of it, Easter Weekend being March 30th - April 1st probably does help the ultra late legs.  That weekend was Darker's last weekend, but I could see Universal planning on keeping it in theaters a weekend or two longer when they set up the schedule given the calendar placement this year.  

 

Gonna be a close call either way, though.  Especially if it has a semi-decent hold (for it) this weekend.

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It would need a little below 110 to cross 400 over the weekend. If it get's there then it needs to add 2x the weekend more to beat TLJ.

 

I think all the bo analysts including our members could be on a high after last weekend so will go a bit conservative. It's a CBM in the end with an inflated Sunday and a low 53-55% drop for 90-95 should not spoil the party.

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3 hours ago, grey ghost said:

Black people gotta pay the bills during the work week.

 

A 120 m OW due to a weekend surge wouldn't shock me.

If it does 120m 2nd weekend then mods should make an exception and open a BP DOM over JL WW club :lol:

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Just got out of my third showing, which was a 4:00 Thursday showing in a non-African American area. It was basically sold out, and the 7:00 did sell out, with lines out the door.     

 

At this point I’m not going to react to *any* predictions for this movie from a well regarded source with “that seems like too much.”     

 

120 would be insane though — that’s a 32% drop from the pure FSS figures.

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34 minutes ago, a2knet said:

It would need a little below 110 to cross 400 over the weekend. If it get's there then it needs to add 2x the weekend more to beat TLJ.

 

I think all the bo analysts including our members could be on a high after last weekend so will go a bit conservative. It's a CBM in the end with an inflated Sunday and a low 53-55% drop for 90-95 should not spoil the party.

This is what I also expect. I think one thing not being taken into consideration is all the groups of kids that were taken to see the film last weekend by various organizations that could have inflated it a bit for the 4 day. That's why I think these Tue/Wed drops have been harsher than something like Deadpool. 

Edited by MovieMan89
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