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WrathOfHan

Monday Numbers: Black Panther 8M Guru

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Mon - 8.098

Tues - 9.707 (+20%)

Wed - 7.086 (-27%)

Thu - 7.227 (+2%) = 435.731

 

Fri - 16.553 (+130%)

Sat - 28.471 (+72%)

Sun - 19.929 (-30%) = 64.953 (-41.8% from last weekend)

 

$500.684 total, which would put it $300,000 ahead of Jurassic World at Day 17. 

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At Day 17, Avengers 1 had taken in 73.4% of its total domestic gross of 623.4m. Give BP the same percentage with a 500m total on Sunday, you'd get a 681m total.

 

To add a little excitement: When adjusted to $9.18, Dark Knight is at 683.8m. 

Edited by RichWS
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1 minute ago, RichWS said:

At Day 17, Avengers 1 had taken in 73.4% of its total domestic gross of 623.4m. Give BP the same percentage with a 500m total on Sunday, you'd get a 681m total.

 

Need it over $710M for reasons

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5 minutes ago, RichWS said:

At Day 17, Avengers 1 had taken in 73.4% of its total domestic gross of 623.4m. Give BP the same percentage with a 500m total on Sunday, you'd get a 681m total.

 

To add a little excitement: When adjusted to $9.18, Dark Knight is at 683.8m. 

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21 minutes ago, That One Guy said:

 

Need it over $710M for reasons

Should've went with double or nothing for your "over Titanic" bet.

 

Plenty of people would've took that before last Friday.

 

Now you need like ~30% weekend drops. :sparta:

 

Not impossible but far from a sure thing.

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1 minute ago, Sliver Legion said:

75 seems crazy, but that’s what I thought about BOM’s 120, and that ended up being a pretty good estimate. If the 3rd weekend falls below that estimate to the same degree, we’ll end up with 111/120*75= 69 ;)

 

$70m seems about right to me, but it would be awesome if it goes a lot higher than this.

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23 minutes ago, ZeeSoh said:

Okay I actually thought that was a cool factoid so googled Red Lemon and was directed to some band in UK named Red Lemon. Then I googled the exact phrase and the top 2 returns were sex stories involving smut and incest 😳

 

You sir are a liar!

 

I’m gonna need those links. 

 

 

For research purposes of course.

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11 hours ago, RichWS said:

At Day 17, Avengers 1 had taken in 73.4% of its total domestic gross of 623.4m. Give BP the same percentage with a 500m total on Sunday, you'd get a 681m total.

 

To add a little excitement: When adjusted to $9.18, Dark Knight is at 683.8m. 

The problem with that comparison would be that The Avengers had a holiday on its 4th weekend and then ran into summer weekdays. BP doesn't have either of those advantages. Spring Break could help a bit, but I'm not sure how that compares to summer weekdays.

 

In addition to that, both TA and JW got a big late run boost coinciding with the Labor Day holiday, where both movies added lots of theaters. BP has Memorial Day in about the same distance from its release date, but unlike on Labor Day, there is actual competition that might prevent a big re-expansion (Infinity War, Deadpool 2 and Solo).

 

Doesn't mean that BP won't reach the total mentioned above, but it definately makes a straight up application of the numbers from one movie to another unlikely to match.

 

 

As foir the upcoming weekend, I can see 65m, but 70m seems kind of a large number. Taking a 7m Thursday, that would need about a 150% Friday increase, followed by a 75% Saturday increase and a 25% drop on Sunday. That's way beyond what it, or any movie that could be used as a comparable, has achieved. Then again, if if there is one movie that might just do it, it is probably this one ;)

Edited by George Parr
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What a Historic 10 Days for "Black Panther", amazing numbers.  With that said, this wasn't the greatest drop in the world honestly.  After last week I could start to see the weekdays a little Frontloaded.  Sure but that has more to do with the time of year "February" than the film itself to me.  It doesn't have summer weekdays to fall back on.  It's already gotten to a 2x Multiplier after only 10 days.   The Weekend numbers will offset any difference.   500 is a Lock and 600 is very much in range.  

Edited by filmscholar
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Even if it does 60 it would be on track to beat TLJ. 60 weekend/495 cume would leave it 125 away. Just over 2x more the weekend which is average/above average multi off the 3rd weekend.

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46 minutes ago, filmscholar said:

What a Historic 10 Days for "Black Panther", amazing numbers.  With that said, this wasn't the greatest drop in the world honestly.  After last week I could start to see the weekdays a little Frontloaded.  Sure but that has more to do with the time of year "February" than the film itself to me.  It doesn't have summer weekdays to fall back on.  It's already gotten to a 2x Multiplier after only 10 days.   The Weekend numbers will offset any difference.   500 is a Lock and 600 is very much in range.  

BP is heading towards $500M after THIS weekend. $600M is lock. Beating JW domestic is very much in range. The weekends like you said is what’s keeping it ahead of The Avengers.

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