Weekend Thread | Estimates per BOM ~ BP 65.7M, RS 17M, DW 13M, GN 10.7M, PR 10M, ANL 5.65M, J:WTTJ 4.5M, FSF 3.3M, TGS 2.68M

[JMorphin]

what could also work against Red Sparrow's weekend multiplier is that it is an adapation of a bestseller.  Those tend to have some rush factor over an original script like Salt.

[Nova]

9 minutes ago, TwoMisfits said:

For those who know (ie - those who are members)...is Red Sparrow still blocked out for Moviepass holders today?  Has the company announced if it will be all weekend or just opening day?

As far as I know MoviePass hasn't blocked Red Sparrow completely. Only in certain markets so I don't know how much of an effect it's actually having on the box office. 

[MaxAggressor]

Deadline's updated Weekend Estimates:

 

1) Black Panther (DIS), 4,084 theaters (+64)  / $16.5M Fri  (-42%) / 3-day: $62.6M (-44%)/Total: $498M/Wk 3

2) Red Sparrow (FOX), 3,056 theaters  / $6M Fri (includes $1.2M previews)/3-day: $16.4M /Wk 1

3) Death Wish (MGM), 2,847 theaters  / $4.3m Fri (includes $650K previews)/3-day: $12M /Wk 1

4) Game Night (NL/WB), 3,502 theaters (+14) / $3m Fri (-45%)/3-day: $10.45M (-39%)/Total: $33.3M/Wk 2

5) Peter Rabbit (SONY), 3,607 theaters (-100)  / $2M Fri (-28%) /3-day: $9.5M (-25%) /Total: $82.5M/Wk 4

6) Annihilation (PAR), 2,012 theaters  / $1.5M Fri (-61%)/3-day: $5.3M (-52%)/Total: $20.3M/Wk 2

7) Jumanji: Welcome to the Jungle (SONY), 2,313 theaters (-206) / $1M Fri (-23%)/3-day: $4.3M (-24%)/Total:$393M/ Wk 11

8) Fifty Shades Freed (UNI), 2,614 theaters (-651) / $1M Fri (-55%) /3-day: $3.2M(-55%)/Total: $95.5M /Wk 4

9) The Greatest Showman  (FOX), 1,407 theaters (-194) / $720K Fri (-21%) / 3-day: $2.7M (-21%)/Total: $164.6M/Wk 11

10)  Every Day (OR), 1,669 theaters  / $460K Fri (-58%) /3-day: $1.5M (-51%)/Total: $5.2M/Wk 2

Edited March 3, 2018 by MaxAggressor

[VGPOP]

With this Friday number for BP, I am predicting:

 

Friday - $16,304,000

Saturday - $28,695,000

Sunday - $18,938,700

 

$63,937,700

 

Unfortunately, not enough for $500 million in 17 days.

[a2k]

6 minutes ago, JMorphin said:

what could also work against Red Sparrow's weekend multiplier is that it is an adapation of a bestseller.  Those tend to have some rush factor over an original script like Salt.

BP's 3rd Friday of 16.3m could beat RS OW

1.2

4.825

6.25 (+30%)

3.75 (-40%)

= 16.025

[The Panda]

Should look something like this

 

16.5m

30.5m (+85%)

22.2m (-27%)

[sfran43]

 

[The Panda]

13 minutes ago, MaxAggressor said:

Deadline's updated Weekend Estimates:

 

1) Black Panther (DIS), 4,084 theaters (+64)  / $16.5M Fri  (-42%) / 3-day: $62.6M (-44%)/Total: $498M/Wk 3

2) Red Sparrow (FOX), 3,056 theaters  / $6M Fri (includes $1.2M previews)/3-day: $16.4M /Wk 1

3) Death Wish (MGM), 2,847 theaters  / $4.3m Fri (includes $650K previews)/3-day: $12M /Wk 1

4) Game Night (NL/WB), 3,502 theaters (+14) / $3m Fri (-45%)/3-day: $10.45M (-39%)/Total: $33.3M/Wk 2

5) Peter Rabbit (SONY), 3,607 theaters (-100)  / $2M Fri (-28%) /3-day: $9.5M (-25%) /Total: $82.5M/Wk 4

6) Annihilation (PAR), 2,012 theaters  / $1.5M Fri (-61%)/3-day: $5.3M (-52%)/Total: $20.3M/Wk 2

7) Jumanji: Welcome to the Jungle (SONY), 2,313 theaters (-206) / $1M Fri (-23%)/3-day: $4.3M (-24%)/Total:$393M/ Wk 11

8) Fifty Shades Freed (UNI), 2,614 theaters (-651) / $1M Fri (-55%) /3-day: $3.2M(-55%)/Total: $95.5M /Wk 4

9) The Greatest Showman  (FOX), 1,407 theaters (-194) / $720K Fri (-21%) / 3-day: $2.7M (-21%)/Total: $164.6M/Wk 11

10)  Every Day (OR), 1,669 theaters  / $460K Fri (-58%) /3-day: $1.5M (-51%)/Total: $5.2M/Wk 2

That Peter Rabbit total probably puts it on track to leg its way over 100m

[MaxAggressor]

Weekend Estimates from pro.boxoffice (Annihilation is missing from the list)

 

#	TITLE	WEEKEND		LOCATIONS		AVG.	TOTAL	WKS.	DIST.
1	Black Panther	$64,000,000	-43%	4,084	64	$15,671	$499,400,037	3	Disney
2	Red Sparrow	$16,500,000	—	3,056	—	$5,399	$16,500,000	1	20th Century Fox
3	Death Wish	$11,500,000	—	2,847	—	$4,039	$11,500,000	1	MGM
4	Game Night	$9,800,000	-42%	3,502	14	$2,798	$32,627,766	2	Warner Bros.
5	Peter Rabbit	$9,300,000	-27%	3,607	-100	$2,578	$83,360,376	4	Sony / Columbia
6	Jumanji: Welcome To The Jungle	$4,300,000	-24%	2,313	-206	$1,859	$393,001,353	11	Sony / Columbia
7	Fifty Shades Freed	$3,200,000	-55%	2,614	-651	$1,224	$95,489,460	4	Universal
8	The Greatest Showman	$2,700,000	-21%	1,407	-194	$1,919	$164,641,443	11	Fox

[commendable]

BP is toast if < 70m wknd then it's just gonna collapse basic ally

[peludo]

6 minutes ago, commendable said:

BP is toast if < 70m wknd then it's just gonna collapse basic ally

[LaughingEvans]

6 minutes ago, commendable said:

BP is toast if < 70m wknd then it's just gonna collapse basic ally

 

Uncommendable.

[MovieMan89]

4 hours ago, WrathOfHan said:

@MovieMan89 Fifty Shades fucked your club.

More confident in it not making it after this Friday bump. See my most recent post here:

 

Edited March 3, 2018 by MovieMan89

[fabiopazzo2]

11 minutes ago, commendable said:

BP is toast if < 70m wknd then it's just gonna collapse basic ally

 

[RRA]

3 hours ago, baumer said:

 

Careful. Youre close to be labeled a troll. We don't care for trolls here. 

But this site is a lovely bridge...

[filmlover]

2 minutes ago, MovieMan89 said:

More confident in it not making it after this Friday bump. See my most recent post here:

 

If it gets close enough, Universal will push it past the mark. Your club failed.

[Godzilla]

Peter Rabbit and Fifty Shades 3 locked to do $100M+ DOM?

[Alli]

3 minutes ago, MovieMan89 said:

More confident in it not making it after this Friday bump. See my most recent post here:

 

Should have made your club UNDER 101M.  studios love them some fudge. 

[MovieMan89]

4 minutes ago, filmlover said:

If it gets close enough, Universal will push it past the mark. Your club failed.

You didn't read the post. If you do, you'll understand why they may not be able to, and why it may only be getting to around $98m on its own. 

 

PR is now my bigger concern, which also looks likely now to get to around $98m on its own, and Sony is a bigger concern when it comes to fudging. It would also be more feasible to fudge PR than it will be for Freed. However, $2m in fudge still isn't exactly easy. Sony had to literally bend over backwards in as desperate of maneuvers as it gets in order to fudge Spectre to 200 when it only needed less than $250k in fudge to get there. It's not always as easy as you guys think. 

Edited March 3, 2018 by MovieMan89

[Godzilla]

I wish Death Wish did better cause I want MGM to release more films.