Weekend Thread | Estimates per BOM ~ BP 65.7M, RS 17M, DW 13M, GN 10.7M, PR 10M, ANL 5.65M, J:WTTJ 4.5M, FSF 3.3M, TGS 2.68M

[ecstasy]

2 minutes ago, KP1025 said:

Black Panther should cross $1 billion WW in 24 days, the same number of days it took for Ultron and Civil War.

When did they open in China?

[Sam]

Just now, Telehilation said:

 

I’m really not dissing it. It’s an amazing run. Fantastic. Unprecedented. Whatever adjective you want.  

Nice try. But it’s already after the fact. You know I ain’t buying it, old boy.

[KP1025]

2 minutes ago, ecstasy said:

When did they open in China?

According to BOM, China opened 10 days after domestic release for Ultron. Civil War opened on the same day.

Edited March 5, 2018 by KP1025

[aabattery]

BP might have a shot at being the first movie since Avatar to win five weekends in a row. 

[ecstasy]

Just now, KP1025 said:

According to BOM, China opened 10 days after domestic release for Ultron. Civil War opened on the same day.

Thanks! So BP is on track for a billion with a relatively delayed opening in China.  Not bad.

[Sam]

3 minutes ago, ecstasy said:

Holy Mother of God! I was not even paying attention to the overseas for this.

Yeah, BP definitely broke out, especially relative to even MCU fans expectations, in the OS markets. 

 

I think before it opens, most everyone thought it will do at best around 400M OS. But it’s already at that mark now after 3 weeks. With China to come, a 600M OS is possible. That’s 5th biggest MCU, only behind the big boys like The Avengers movie and IM3, CA3.

[ecstasy]

Just now, Sam said:

Yeah, BP definitely broke out, especially relative to even MCU fans expectations, in the OS markets. 

 

I think before it opens, most everyone thought it will do at best around 400M OS. But it’s already at that mark now after 3 weeks. With China to come, a 600M OS is possible. That’s 5th biggest MCU, only behind the big boys like The Avengers movie and IM3, CA3.

Wow. What did you have it at? I thought overall 600-650m WW would have been a good number for it. Never in my wildest dreams...

[Mojoguy]

BP might have a shot at being the first movie since Avatar to win five weekends in a row.

Nah, Tomb Raider OW should beat BP's 5th weekend.

[Sam]

1 minute ago, ecstasy said:

Wow. What did you have it at? I thought overall 600-650m WW would have been a good number for it. Never in my wildest dreams...

Closer to release date, my domestic expectations definitely went up significantly with all the pre-sales and hype report, so 350-400M Dom. 

 

But OS I had reservations, and was hoping the MCU good will internationally will bring BP box office to around Dr. Strange total. Boy, so glad I was wrong. 

[aabattery]

2 minutes ago, Mojoguy said:

Nah, Tomb Raider OW should beat BP's 5th weekend.

 

Dunno. Could see BP around ~25M. I can easily see Tomb Raider coming in under that. 

[MaxAggressor]

1	1	Black Panther	BV	$66,306,935	-40.6%	4,084	+64	$16,236	$501,706,972	-	3
2	N	Red Sparrow	Fox	$16,853,422	-	3,056	-	$5,515	$16,853,422	$69	1
3	N	Death Wish (2018)	MGM	$13,010,267	-	2,847	-	$4,570	$13,010,267	$30	1
4	2	Game Night	WB	$10,412,496	-38.8%	3,502	+14	$2,973	$33,240,262	$37	2
5	3	Peter Rabbit	Sony	$10,005,177	-21.6%	3,607	-100	$2,774	$84,065,553	$50	4
6	4	Annihilation	Par.	$5,607,902	-49.3%	2,112	+100	$2,655	$20,594,644	$40	2
7	6	Jumanji: Welcome to the Jungle	Sony	$4,438,090	-21.5%	2,313	-206	$1,919	$393,139,443	$90	11
8	5	Fifty Shades Freed	Uni.	$3,400,505	-52.4%	2,614	-651	$1,301	$95,689,965	$55	4
9	8	The Greatest Showman	Fox	$2,703,357	-20.8%	1,407	-194	$1,921	$164,644,800	$84	11
10	9	Every Day (2018)	Orion	$1,553,195	-48.5%	1,669	+2	$931	$5,253,998	$4.9	2
11	13	The Shape of Water	FoxS	$1,461,602	+23.8%	832	+111	$1,757	$57,455,578	-	14
12	7	The 15:17 to Paris	WB	$1,413,755	-60.4%	1,803	-949	$784	$34,961,971	$30	4
13	11	Three Billboards Outside Ebbing, Missouri	FoxS	$1,274,194	+1.5%	770	+79	$1,655	$52,044,383	-	17
14	12	The Post	Fox	$937,658	-24.4%	671	-124	$1,397	$80,392,627	$50	11
15	21	Call Me by Your Name	SPC	$783,227	+49.7%	914	+239	$857	$16,909,289	-	15
16	18	Darkest Hour	Focus	$696,160	-6.6%	913	+118	$762	$55,550,377	-	15
17	14	Phantom Thread	Focus	$628,525	-36.7%	715	+64	$879	$20,162,689	-	10
18	19	Lady Bird	A24	$568,742	-15.1%	710	+109	$801	$48,321,868	-	18
19	20	I, Tonya	Neon	$552,389	-5.2%	511	+88	$1,081	$28,941,481	-	13

[commendable]

What's the chances this gets 700m again?

[commendable]

 

SO CLOSE TO 66.6 M NOOOOO

[aabattery]

600k from greatness

 

[CJohn]

57 minutes ago, aabattery said:

BP might have a shot at being the first movie since Avatar to win five weekends in a row. 

It might win 6 but I think Sherlock Gnomes should be able to pull something like 20M because of the lack of animations.

[MCKillswitch123]

1 hour ago, CJohn said:

The Queen shall not be denied @MCKillswitch123

 

http://www.ica-ip.pt/fotos/downloads/ranking_fds_1_a_4_marco_2018_34865a9d24148c705.pdf

She makes the (J)Law here.

 

(Didn't mother! bomb like balls, though?)

[a2k]

The Post will do 3x it's prod budget ww. Good but considering the big 3 names involved and awards nomination help expected more.

Total Lifetime Grosses

Domestic:	$80,392,627	52.3%
+ Foreign:	$73,400,000	47.7%
= Worldwide:	$153,792,627

 

Cruise's American Made (same prod budget as The Post; 50m), considered an under-performer, was not that far off globally. It did much less dom and a little more os.

Total Lifetime Grosses

Domestic:	$51,342,000	38.1%
+ Foreign:	$83,524,593	61.9%
= Worldwide:	$134,866,593

 

 

MOTOE was a very successful adult-oriented 50-60 prod budget movie with 350 ww.

[Johnny Tran]

9 hours ago, LaughingEvans said:

Gal's height is just fine. 

 

The lack of curves though... Not good. 

[tawasal]

4 hours ago, Telehilation said:

 

Likely just a lack of attention in the thread would be my guess. The numbers are remarkably huge for a third weekend but overall the weekend still felt minor.

 

4 hours ago, Telehilation said:

 

I don't have an answer. Probably a combination of a lot of energy getting poured into BP's first two weekends, while its performance this time was very strong but not off-the-charts strong like the first two. And of course the Oscars probably took up a bunch of attention yesterday as well. Personally I didn't even know the weekend estimates until yesterday afternoon.

 

 

[a2k]

At ~100m PR will have shown much better legs than Pad2.

100/25=4x vs 40/11=3.6x