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RAMPAGE | 327.0 M overseas ● 428.0 M worldwide

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2 minutes ago, Godzilla said:

Wow already surpassed Tomb Raider worldwide. $400 million is probable?

I think it's possible but the hold against A:IW will seal the fate since Rampage will have 2 more weeks after A:IW as the 2nd choice big budget blockbuster offering around the world.

 

Domestic: Rampage dropped just 41.7% this weekend. It needs 1.64 x 2nd weekend to reach 100m in DBO. I think it's doable. So let's go with 100m from the DBO.

 

China: 135m is locked according to our CBO experts. It could go as high as 140m (Maoyan projects 140m final total for Rampage at the time of writing this post)

 

OS-China: Rampage opened to 60.7m from Int'l markets. This weekend it did 29.8m. That's a 50.9% drop. Kong: Skull Island dropped 53.6% in it's sophomore play in the existing OS markets. We can compare both since neither has/had new openings in any OS territory in their respective weekends. K:SI finished with a multiplier of 2.7 off of it's OS OW. Now K:SI also had both Germany and France opening simultaneously with other OS countries while those 2 markets are still to come for Rampage. Both still had Japan left in the tank after the 2nd weekend. A:IW will hit Rampage hard on a global scale but Rampage should still get to 2.5xOW. That means 151.8m.

 

Germany+Grance+Japan - I'm assuming an arbitrary 19.2m from these 3 markets. WW Total - (100+135+151.8+19.2) = 406m.

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Kong:Skull Island dropped 56% on 2nd weekend minus the Germany & France numbers for the 2 weekends. K:SI dropped a remarkably impressive 28% from the OW in those 2 markets. So the avg. drop in other countries brought the overall weekend drop down several notches. Rampage is already displaying a much better hold with estimates (actuals tend to come in higher so the drop will get better tomorrow).

 

After 10 days the OS multiplier for Rampage is 1.82 while K:SI was at 1.78. It'll trend better for 4 more days and then drop harshly against A:IW to trend downward w.r.t K:SI. But how severe will be the downward trajectory?? It can still recover over the whole of the next 2 weeks before DP2 hits theaters world-wide. 2.5xOW feels like an achievable target.

 

Rampage opened to 71.3% of K:SI in similar markets on OS OW (the former is already at 75.5% of the latter in sophomore weekend). If we assume Rampage does 65% of the combined total from France & Germany (of K:SI), it will have made a bit more than 14m.

 

Blockbuster kaiju/monster movies tend to do well in Japan (Godzilla 30m, PR 14.5m, K:SI 17m etc). 65% of K:SI will bring in close to 11m.

 

So that's (14+11)=25m from the remaining big OS markets. The CBO figure can still climb above 135m for all we know. So 400m seems locked even with a global collapse against A:IW.

 

But all these analysis will look silly if A:IW obliterates it next weekend. So I'll hope that Rampage will be able hold it's own against the wrath of A:IW.

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^^^ 400 does look like a done deal.

 

95 dom + 135 china = 330

current os should do 150.

then Germany+France+Japan falling below 20 seems impossible.

 

Even if dom and china combined come in ~5 less at 325, current os should go over 150 that I used above, and Germany+France+Japan should also bring in at least 10 more than just 20.

 

at the moment, 410-420 looks more likely than 390-400.

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Avengers seem to have hurt it in a bit of an extreme way:

 

http://chicagoeveningpost.com/2018/04/22/comscore-announces-official-worldwide-box-office-results-for-weekend-of-april-22-2018/

https://www.prnewswire.com/news-releases/comscore-announces-official-worldwide-box-office-results-for-weekend-of-april-29-2018-300638624.html

 

Last week (weekend total, intl weekend, domestic weekend/ total world wide box office):

 

 

Rampage

78,000,000

57,000,000

21,000,000

283,000,066

To

 

Rampage

23,305,000

16,200,000

7,105,000

334,630,557

 

57m to 16.2m international, that a 71.5% drop

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On 2018/4/30 at 12:22 AM, PanaMovie said:

I think 

 

 92M DOM

305M OS

 

397-400M WW

China still has about two weeks IMAX till AiW open.it has huge increase in labour holiday this week.So $145-150M instead of $135M.400M+ is more likely.

Edited by bangbingchan
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Rampage got annihilated by A:IW. It dropped a massive 71.75% in OS markets. :( :sadno:

 

Rampage is still ahead of K:SI in overall OS multiplier after 17 days (Rampage 2.154 & K:SI 2.142). K:SI dropped 55% (minus China & Japan) in the 3rd weekend. It's multiplier off 3rd weekend (minus the entirety of CBO & Japan) was 1.75x. If we assume Rampage manages that 85% of that then it'll get to 1.485x (Godzilla did 1.38x from 3rd weekend). Rampage grossed 7.8m from CBO & 8.7m from other OS markets this weekend. So (1.485 X 8.7) gives us 12.9m. Rampage could bring in 25m from France+Germany+Japan+Poland. OS-CBO total atm is 130.8m. CBO is tracking at 145m+ so let's go with that specific number for now.

 

DBO - 95m

CBO - 145m

Total OS BO - (130.8+12.9+25) = 168.7m

 

Total World-Wide BO - (95+145+168.7) = 408.7m.

Edited by MaxAggressor
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