90th Annual Academy Awards | Live Discussion Thread | Ceremony starts now

[Jonwo]

I think it'll be either Three Billboards or The Shape of Water for Best Picture, it's a toughie though but Fox Searchlight will wins either way.

[Jake Gittes]

Wasn't Affleck's director snub ironically the very thing that made Argo a lock? From what I remember it looked pretty iffy before that. 

[Webslinger]

Just now, Jake Gittes said:

La La Land may not have been locked in the end but it sure as hell looked like it was. Did anyone here or elsewhere seriously contemplate an upset going into the night? 2013 and 2015 were the only recent years comparable to 2017 imo. 

I agree. I had a slight feeling it might not win, but that had more to do with personal superstition (no doubt spurred on by seeing the unrelated collapses of the fellow "victory's in the bag" cases of Hillary Clinton and the Atlanta Falcons) than anything grounded in the precursors. For all intents and purposes, La La Land looked locked and loaded. Besides, even in years with runaway favorites, you still get at least a few contrarian voices hoping to call the next Shakespeare in Love/Crash-style upset; I assumed that the relatively few voices picking Moonlight would follow the same trajectory as the few who predicted that recent winners like The Hurt Locker or The King's Speech wouldn't prevail.

 

But I'm still glad that Moonlight won. La La Land may have been my personal favorite of the nominees (though Manchester by the Sea and Moonlight were mighty close in the second and third slots in my book), but in the larger scope of Best Picture winners, Moonlight is a genuinely unique and meaningful selection.

[CoolioD1]

Just now, Jake Gittes said:

Wasn't Affleck's director snub ironically the very thing that made Argo a lock? From what I remember it looked pretty iffy before that. 

i think it seemed like an up in the air year at the start. it did win the most critics groups though. i remember the day of the nominations everyone thought it would be silver linings playbook vs. lincoln because of the way they overperformed.

[Cmasterclay]

I've always thought that the Director snub helped Argo but thinking about it more it had won alot of precursors, and voting for the Globes and SAG Ensemble was already over by the time noms were announced and it won there too. 

[MikeQ]

I'm hoping anything but Three Billboards wins Best Picture, that CMBYN wins Best Adapted Screenplay, and that there's a surprise winner in one of the acting categories for a genuine surprise of the night (though this is incredibly unlikely given the acting categories are as locked as can be).

 

Peace,

Mike

[Cmasterclay]

Zero Dark started off rolling in 2012 but then the controversy and disappointing box office came and Bigelow got snubbed and it had faded. I think with the benefit of time alot of the retrospective looks at that year say "yea, that one should have won it all."

[Jake Gittes]

La La Land wuz ROBBED I will die on this hill.

[CoolioD1]

Just now, Cmasterclay said:

Zero Dark started off rolling in 2012 but then the controversy and disappointing box office came and Bigelow got snubbed and it had faded. I think with the benefit of time alot of the retrospective looks at that year say "yea, that one should have won it all."

that movie... didn't age well.

[FantasticBeasts]

How much time in will the big awards start rollin'?

[The Futurist]

Kathryn Bigelow should start reconsidering her life choices.

Stat.

So much talent, wasted away.

[WrathOfHan]

Here is every category ranked by my own opinion (outside of the shorts, foreign, and documentary #casual)

 

Spoiler

Picture:

 

1. Phantom Thread

2. The Shape of Water

3. The Post

4. Get Out

5. Lady Bird

6. Three Billboards Outside Ebbing, Missouri

7. Dunkirk

8. Darkest Hour

 

Director:

 

1. Paul Thomas Anderson

2. Guillermo del Toro

3. Jordan Peele

4. Christopher Nolan

5. Greta Gerwig

 

Actor:

 

1. Daniel Day-Lewis

2. Denzel Washington

3. Gary Oldman

4. Daniel Kaluuya

 

Actress:

 

1. Meryl Streep

2. Sally Hawkins

3. Saoirse Ronan

4. Frances McDormand

5. Margot Robbie

 

Supporting Actor:

 

1. Richard Jenkins

2. Willem Dafoe

3. Christopher Plummer

4. Sam Rockwell

5. Woody Harrelson

 

Supporting Actress:

 

1. Lesley Manville

2. Laurie Metcalf

3. Allison Janney

4. Octavia Spencer

5. Mary J. Blige

 

Original Screenplay:

 

1. The Shape of Water

2. Get Out

3. The Big Sick

4. Lady Bird

5. Three Billboards Outside Ebbing, Missouri

 

Adapted Screenplay:

 

1. Mudbound

2. Molly's Game

3. Logan

 

Animated:

 

1. Coco

2. The Boss Baby

 

Cinematography:

 

1. The Shape of Water

2. Dunkirk

3. Blade Runner 2049

4. Darkest Hour

5. Mudbound

 

Editing:

 

1. Dunkirk

2. The Shape of Water

3. Baby Driver

4. I, Tonya

5. Three Billboards Outside Ebbing, Missouri

 

Score:

 

1. Phantom Thread

2. The Shape of Water

3. Dunkirk

4. Three Billboards Outside Ebbing, Missouri

5. Star Wars: Greatest Hits from the Franchise

 

Song:

 

1. This Is Me

2. Remember Me

3. Mystery of Love

4. Mighty River

5. Stand Up for Something

 

Production Design:

 

1. The Shape of Water

2. Blade Runner 2049

3. Dunkirk

4. Darkest Hour

5. Beauty and the Beast

 

Costume Design:

 

1. Phantom Thread

2. The Shape of Water

3. Darkest Hour

4. Beauty and the Beast

 

Makeup:

 

1. Darkest Hour

2. Wonder

 

Visual Effects:

 

1. Blade Runner 2049

2. Guardians of the Galaxy Volume 2

3. War for the Planet of the Apes

4. Star Wars: The Last Jedi

5. Kong: Skull Island

 

Sound Editing:

 

1. Dunkirk

2. The Shape of Water

3. Star Wars: The Last Jedi

4. Blade Runner 2049

5. Baby Driver

 

Sound Mixing:

 

1. Dunkirk

2. Baby Driver

3. Star Wars: The Last Jedi

4. The Shape of Water

5. Blade Runner 2049

 

[Jake Gittes]

2 minutes ago, Cmasterclay said:

Zero Dark started off rolling in 2012 but then the controversy and disappointing box office came and Bigelow got snubbed and it had faded. I think with the benefit of time alot of the retrospective looks at that year say "yea, that one should have won it all."

I still see plenty of people trashing it for "condoning torture" and shit even today. 

[CoolioD1]

my predictions

 

Picture: Shape of Water

Director: Guillermo

Actor: Gary Oldham

Actress: Frances McDormand

Supp. Actor: Sam Rockwell

Supp. Actress: Allison Janney

Original Screenplay: Three Billboards

Adapted Screenplay: Call Me By Your Name

Animated Feature: Coco

Documentary Feature: Icarus

Foreign Language Film: A Fantastic Woman

Animated Short: Garden Party

Documentary Short: Traffic Stop

Live Action Short: The Silent Child

Film Editing: Baby Driver

Cinematography: Blade Runner 2049

Production Design: The Shape of Water

Costumes: Phantom Thread

Make-Up: Darkest Hour

Original Score: The Shape of Water

Original Song: This is Me

Sound Editing: Dunkirk

Sound Mixing: Dunkirk

Visual Effects: Blade Runner 2049

[CoolioD1]

considering the climate i'm probably a dumbass for saying the school shooting short film won't win but it's nooooot gooooooood. going with my gut on that.

[The Futurist]

#Justice_For_Weta_Digital

#Not_my_VFX_Branch

#2011-2014-2017

Edited March 4, 2018 by The Futurist

[SLAM!]

2 minutes ago, CoolioD1 said:

considering the climate i'm probably a dumbass for saying the school shooting short film won't win but it's nooooot gooooooood. going with my gut on that.

 

I think its main competition is The Silent Child. I saw an Oscar voter say that that was the film that really was an actual film; he might've meant that the other films were more like statements than films.

[Cmasterclay]

I mean Zero Dark Thirty is definitely kinda weird with how it depicts torture/race. It's also in a vacuum alot better movie than Argo (or defacto runner up Life of Pi). So, idk.

[Cmasterclay]

I had an Oscars dream last night, so I guess that means I'm excited. I dreamed that the song "pick up the phone" by Travis Scott won the Best Original Song Oscar. Seems very unlikely, but it'd be alot better than any of the nominated choices!

[CoolioD1]

Just now, slambros said:

 

I think its main competition is The Silent Child. I saw an Oscar voter say that that was the film that really was an actual film; he might've meant that the other films were more like statements than films.

which is weird because Silent Child is the most PSA out of the five (literally ends with a Go To This Website to Find Out More:) but it's also kinda the best. it's the only one of the five i could see someone trying to adapt into a feature some time down the line i'll say that.