90th Annual Academy Awards | Live Discussion Thread | Ceremony starts now

[Cmasterclay]

I guess my take is that between the fact that it was number one on the most ballots AND probably not below 3/4 on the majority of the others, I think 12 Years a Slave probably won by as big a margin as anything has in this day and age. Maybe the Artist? Each their own though.

 

Also, percentage wise, I'd go 35% Shape, 35% Three Billboards, 20% Get Out, and 5% Dunkirk and 5% Lady Bird. Can't think of another year where there was as many movies in there and as close. Like even 2015 I would have gone 55% for Revenant 35% Spotlight 15% for Big Short and 5% for Mad Max, which is close but not THIS close.

[WrathOfHan]

Predictions:

 

Picture: The Shape of Water

Director: Guillermo del Toro

Actor: Gary Oldman

Actress: Frances McDormand

Supporting Actor: Sam Rockwell

Supporting Actress: Allison Janney

Original Screenplay: Three Billboards

Adapted Screenplay: Call Me by Your Name

Animated: Coco

Foreign: The Square

Documentary: Faces Places

Cinematography: The Shape of Water

Editing: The Shape of Water

Score: The Shape of Water

Song: This Is Me

Production Design: The Shape of Water

Costume Design: Phantom Thread

Makeup: Darkest Hour

Visual Effects: Blade Runner 2049

Sound Editing: The Shape of Water

Sound Mixing: Baby Driver

 

I'm going all in on Dunkirk winning nothing. It lowkey won't be surprising to me if SOW gets everything its nominated for except the acting categories and screenplay.

[Jake Gittes]

La La Land may not have been locked in the end but it sure as hell looked like it was. Did anyone here or elsewhere seriously contemplate an upset going into the night? 2013 and 2015 were the only recent years comparable to 2017 imo. 

[Cmasterclay]

I think Original Screenplay is telling. If Three Billboards wins that, I think it's the favorite but not quite a lock. Get Out needs to win that to have a chance, and even then it'd still be a tossup. Lady Bird and Big Sick don't indicate much. If Shape pulls it off there, then it's locked and loaded to win Best Pic. 

[Jake Gittes]

Where was the standout editing in Shape of Water?

[grim22]

Just now, Cmasterclay said:

I think Original Screenplay is telling. If Three Billboards wins that, I think it's the favorite but not quite a lock. Get Out needs to win that to have a chance, and even then it'd still be a tossup. Lady Bird and Big Sick don't indicate much. If Shape pulls it off there, then it's locked and loaded to win Best Pic. 

 

I think Get Out wins Original Screenplay, feels like that is its best chance for a big win.

[WrathOfHan]

Also, something is still rubbing me the wrong way about the consensus four acting wins. I feel like there's going to be an upset in one of Actor, Actress, or Supporting Actor.

[The Futurist]

Harvey won 6 best picture Oscars, 4 with Miramax, 2 with Weinstein Co., the last big Oscars he ever won were Jlaw's, QT's and Waltz' in 2012.

[Cmasterclay]

I thought Moonlight had a much better chance of winning Best Picture than Gravity did. Still thought La La Land was winning it like 70% though. But between some of the leaked ballots/buzz, the fact that LLL was so divisive, and the SAG ensemble thing, I thought Moonlight had a fighting shot in a way no other alternate winner (outside 2015) had since maybe Avatar.

 

[Cmasterclay]

1 minute ago, WrathOfHan said:

Also, something is still rubbing me the wrong way about the consensus four acting wins. I feel like there's going to be an upset in one of Actor, Actress, or Supporting Actor.

Def not Actor, sadly. Actress I don't think so either. I think the consensus four do win but if there's gonna be an upset it'll be Dafoe or Metclaf. They certainly have voting blocs. 

Edited March 4, 2018 by Cmasterclay

[WrathOfHan]

Just now, Cmasterclay said:

Def not Actor, sadly. Actress I don't think so either. I think the consensus four do win but if there's gonna be an upset it'll be Dafoe or Metclaf. They certainly have voting blocs. 

I think Janney has too much goodwill in the industry on her side for Metcalf to upset. I'm envisioning a scenario where Jenkins wins supporting actor, but Dafoe would probably be the one to upset there.

[grim22]

4 minutes ago, WrathOfHan said:

Also, something is still rubbing me the wrong way about the consensus four acting wins. I feel like there's going to be an upset in one of Actor, Actress, or Supporting Actor.

 

If there is an upset, Supporting Actor seems the most likely (again, because of thinkpieces). If Metcalf was winning, then the Independent Spirit Awards at the very least would have had her win, if the smaller academy there which awards more passion projects etc. didn't award her, I don't see her upsetting here.

[CoolioD1]

dafoe probably isn't even the runner up at this point florida project kinda just fell off it might be jenkins even. and oldman is so far ahead i don't even know who the runner up is.

[Joel M]

5 minutes ago, Cmasterclay said:

Since preferential ballot:

 

Hurt Locker and La La Land were favorites but not locks by any means

Birdman, King's Speech, and Argo were heavy favorites but not quite mortal locks because of mitigating factors (Affleck's snub, Social Network/Boyhood having some legit wins under their belt)

The Artist and 12 Years a Slave were mortal locks

2015 and 2017 were genuine tossups with a third viable contender in the mix too. 

I really don't see it that way at all. If the three big guilds all line up behind the same movie its ovah. I'm pretty sure we knew Hurt Locker/King's Speech/Argo/Artist/Birdman were winning before the ceremony. While 12 years a slave was a mortal lock at the start of the season but barely held on the prize by the end of it.

[Jake Gittes]

What's the last time someone upset in an acting category after losing all through the season? 

[WrathOfHan]

Just now, CoolioD1 said:

dafoe probably isn't even the runner up at this point florida project kinda just fell off it might be jenkins even. and oldman is so far ahead i don't even know who the runner up is.

Daniel Day-Lewis 

[SLAM!]

4 minutes ago, Jake Gittes said:

Where was the standout editing in Shape of Water?

 

I'd argue the screen transitions. There were many beautiful screen transitions where the images seem to meld within each other. And the film itself is prettt seamless as well, with a lot of smart cuts.

[WrathOfHan]

Just now, Jake Gittes said:

What's the last time someone upset in an acting category after losing all through the season? 

Mark Rylance is the closest we've gotten, but he won BAFTA.

[CoolioD1]

Just now, Jake Gittes said:

What's the last time someone upset in an acting category after losing all through the season? 

i think it was Denzel. russell crowe did win bafta/gg/sag/critics choice but then he was acting a fool and got a lot of press for it and that probably lost it for him.

 

which is good because crowe is miscast in a beautiful mind and denzel in training day is one of the best wins ever.

[aabattery]

2 minutes ago, CoolioD1 said:

and oldman is so far ahead i don't even know who the runner up is.