Weekend Thread: Weekend estimates pg 38...BP 41.14....WIT 33.31

[Maxmoser3]

A Wrinkle In Time was appealing for a month. Then the spots at the Winter Olympics were bad, and Oprah being a complete wack job with saying she’s wanting to run for president and the whole movie looking like a complete disaster. Also that 30% audience score 

Edited March 9, 2018 by Maxmoser3

[TwoMisfits]

I don't get the glee behind hoping WiT fails, nor the "already" condemning a family-skewing movie's weekend box office before it's even had a kid off from school to watch it.  

 

This is so odd...I mean, I get that most board posters are probably not in the "targeted demo" for this movie...but isn't that when you should accept that maybe you might be a little less certain on this one?  I mean, I admit when teen male comedies and graphic horror movies open that I'm probably pretty clueless up until Friday night numbers show up:)...

 

[Maxmoser3]

Also is it just me, or should’ve The Strangers 2 been a DTV movie instead of theatrical release? Nothing wrong with the movie it looks ok, but nothing to spend $10-$12 at the theater worthy 

[Jonwo]

17 minutes ago, a2knet said:

Assuming 41.5 (-37%) this weekend, a 40% drop gives BP 25 next weekend. Atm think that wold be an over-performance for TR. When was the last time a movie did 5 #1 weekends?

I think Tomb Raider has a shot of getting to number 1 otherwise the first non BP number 1 might be Ready Player One. 

[filmlover]

7 minutes ago, MovieMan89 said:

Some of you are reaching to jump on the preview numbers and call it a flop while conveniently ignoring the dozens upon dozens of family films that have opened to paltry previews and had big 40m+ OWs. The MT performance should lock it to beat BP this weekend, or else it's performing wildly inconsistent with other family films on the site. My OW range for WiT hasn't changed in weeks, and it still looks likely to hit that mark to me. I stopped calling for a 200+ breakout a long time ago already. It's not going to be the sub 100m flop some of you are so desperately hoping for though. 

It's mainly animated movies that enjoy the big Saturday bumps. A Wrinkle in Time will likely perform similar to other live-action Disney titles (none of which saw 50% bumps - or even 40% bumps - on their first Saturdays).

Edited March 9, 2018 by filmlover

[MCKillswitch123]

2 minutes ago, MovieMan89 said:

WiT is sitting 5% ahead of BP on MT right now. I don't buy it's only doing low 30's for the weekend, unless BP is about to have a massive drop to mid 20's this weekend. Previews can be wildly inconsistent for family films and often misleading, to the extent that sometimes studios don't even bother with them. Just recently Peter Rabbit for example didn't have previews. A comparable preview gross to WiT from this same time last year would be The Boss Baby at $1.5m, which went on to do $50m for the weekend. I'm still putting WiT in the 40-50m range. 

Panther had a 4.1M Thursday, which probably indicates a performance of O/U 40M for the weekend. It usually blows up on Saturday anyway, so.... it's more than likely that it wins the weekend again.

 

Also, Boss Baby was a non-franchise (as in not a sequel, prequel, etc.... though it is based on a book, but not one w/a noticeable pre-existing fanbase of any kind) animated movie w/huge buzz (for whatever reason). It opened huge, and typical to animated family flicks, it had a massive weekend multiplier. As a live-action family movie, WIT is another kind of beast. It's probably gonna be much closer to Tomorrowland than to Boss Baby. 35-37M is the optimistically realistic range atm, w/a chance for less than that due to the poor wom.

[Godzilla]

Ugh both the haters and the stans for AWIT are equally annoying. Just cause you liked it doesn't mean you're an SJW and if you hated it it doesn't mean you're an alt right racist. 

[MovieMan89]

3 minutes ago, TwoMisfits said:

I don't get the glee behind hoping WiT fails, nor the "already" condemning a family-skewing movie's weekend box office before it's even had a kid off from school to watch it.  

 

This is so odd...I mean, I get that most board posters are probably not in the "targeted demo" for this movie...but isn't that when you should accept that maybe you might be a little less certain on this one?  I mean, I admit when teen male comedies and graphic horror movies open that I'm probably pretty clueless up until Friday night numbers show up:)...

 

It's just frustrating because anyone who follows box office knows that family films don't consistently post big preview numbers. Yet everyone wants to already grab the pitchforks with WiT. The MT performance strongly points in favor of 40m+. Maybe the MT performance will turn out to be an anomaly for some reason, but until it does I trust it's not. 

[IronJimbo]

10 minutes ago, TwoMisfits said:

I don't get the glee behind hoping WiT fails, nor the "already" condemning a family-skewing movie's weekend box office before it's even had a kid off from school to watch it.  

 

This is so odd...I mean, I get that most board posters are probably not in the "targeted demo" for this movie...but isn't that when you should accept that maybe you might be a little less certain on this one?  I mean, I admit when teen male comedies and graphic horror movies open that I'm probably pretty clueless up until Friday night numbers show up:)...

 

I don't have a clue about this movie and I'm not exactly be hoping for it to fail... but sometimes watching stuff burn is fun. Adds a little spice to the equation, the bigger variance in possibilities the more we have to keep on our toes.

Edited March 9, 2018 by IronJimbo

[filmlover]

I think the problem is that A Wrinkle in Time doesn't really have a secured target audience even with the Disney brand: it looks kinda juvenile, yet nothing about it (the director, the cast, the visuals) immediately screams "family movie" either and the brand name from the book probably isn't strong enough to make up for it. It's the same problem that befell Tomorrowland and the likes, so these eh-ish numbers are the result.

[Nova]

I have a feeling this weekend thread is gonna be a mess, if it hasn't already turned into one. 

 

Anyways I don't know how to feel about that preview number for AWIT. It could perform like other family films and do $40M+ but it could also just not have hit with audiences and get completely overlooked and thus flop. Plus I'm not sure how the WOM will be and no I'm not counting an RT audience score which includes reviews that talk about "alt. Liberal Hollywood" and the "ultra rich racist Oprah!" as proof for the WOM. 

 

Its true test will be how it performs over the weekend. 

Edited March 9, 2018 by Nova

[MovieMan89]

Oz did $2m in previews this same time of year on route to a $79m OW. Anyone have Cinderella's preview numbers? Can't find them on BOM. 

[WrathOfHan]

If Wrinkle in Time follows Jungle Book:

 

9.9M

12.6M

9.4M

31.9M Weekend

 

[75Live]

yeah not crazy about either preview number of the two new releases.

 

However, I'll give A Wrinkle in time some leeway for now since it may play better today and act like a family film.

 

So I'll wait until today's number

Edited March 9, 2018 by 75Live

[grey ghost]

9 minutes ago, TwoMisfits said:

I don't get the glee behind hoping WiT fails, nor the "already" condemning a family-skewing movie's weekend box office before it's even had a kid off from school to watch it.  

 

This is so odd...I mean, I get that most board posters are probably not in the "targeted demo" for this movie...but isn't that when you should accept that maybe you might be a little less certain on this one?  I mean, I admit when teen male comedies and graphic horror movies open that I'm probably pretty clueless up until Friday night numbers show up:)...

 

Usually I'd agree with you but apparently the movie is just bad.

 

(Very funny review except the random Michael Pena diss. Michael Pena is awesome)

 

 

 

[TwoMisfits]

1 minute ago, IronJimbo said:

I'm don't have a clue about this movie and I wouldn't exactly be hoping for it to fail... but sometimes watching stuff burn is fun. Adds a little spice to the equation, the bigger variance in possibilities the more we have to keep on our toes.

I get wanting to see some things burn...but shouldn't those be the 7th sequel to a crappy super or some remake from 4 years ago and also 8 years ago showing up again for try #3, not a 1st theatrical release of a pretty awesome story?  I mean, don't we want tentpoles to not all be supers/star wars/sequels?:)

[sfran43]

 

[YM!]

WIT although has a PG rating and yes draws families shouldn’t be compared to animated films especially OW. WIT seems imo more young adult skewing than say a Dreamworks movie. We should compare it to Disney’s previous live action efforts. However I’ll be impressed if it does do over $40M.

[filmlover]

2 minutes ago, MovieMan89 said:

Oz did $2m in previews this same time of year on route to a $79m OW. Anyone have Cinderella's preview numbers? Can't find them on BOM. 

That started at 9:00 and opened five years ago when previews weren't anywhere nearly as prevalent as they are today so that's a useless comparison.

[grim22]

6 minutes ago, MovieMan89 said:

Oz did $2m in previews this same time of year on route to a $79m OW. Anyone have Cinderella's preview numbers? Can't find them on BOM. 

 

Oz previews started at 9pm 5 years ago, Cinderella did 2.3M from 7pm shows for 67M OW. If WIT manages to get Cinderella's multiplier, it still ends with 37M.