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Weekend Thread: Weekend estimates pg 38...BP 41.14....WIT 33.31

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3 minutes ago, Treeing Me Apart said:

30% RT score from audience ratings that include,

"Say it isn't so. A Disney movie with a rotten score? I could tell from the trailers that this movie looked like a disaster. First bomb for Disney this year I guess. Disney can't win them all."

 

Plenty of the 1 star reviews I can see come from users that have no other rating history on RT. That's not to say they are fake - maybe they were so outraged by the movie that it drove them to create a new Rotten Tomatoes account to review it - but just take it with a pinch of salt.

Now that I think about it, the percentage is probably driven somewhat by trolls. Just about every mixed / poorly received fantasy film starts out with way higher then 30%. 

Edited by Fancyarcher
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This is fine for A Wrinkle in Time since it's likely gonna skew heavily towards families. Not gonna be a breakout, of course, but should be on track for a decent $35-40M opening.

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Mojo prediction 

  • A Wrinkle in Time (3,980 theaters) - $42.0 M
  • Black Panther (3,942 theaters) - $38.0 M
  • Strangers: Prey at Night (2,464 theaters) - $9.5 M
  • Red Sparrow (3,064 theaters) - $8.3 M
  • Death Wish (2,882 theaters) - $6.9 M
  • Peter Rabbit (3,112 theaters) - $6.2 M
  • Game Night (3,061 theaters) - $5.8 M
  • The Hurricane Heist (2,402 theaters) - $3.8 M
  • Jumanji: Welcome to the Jungle (2,157 theaters) - $3.4 M
  • Gringo (2,404 theaters) - $3.0 M
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30M OW looking good for AWiT but it will depend on how much it jumps tomorrow.

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Of course racist trolls are hurting the audience score. Good thing I never give a damn about that score on RT.

 

Finally, Wrinkle's numbers are out.

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25-30x the previews gives WRINKLE 33-39 ow.

Any comps?

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From BOM:

 

Disney's A Wrinkle in Time delivered $1.3 million from Thursday night previews. This is well ahead of the $725k brought in by Tomorrowland ahead of its $33 million three-day and just behind Alice Through the Looking Glass, which brought in $1.5 million from Thursday previews ahead of a $34 million debut.

 

Aviron's The Strangers: Prey at Night brought in $610,000 from Thursday evening previews, which is better than both Kidnap and You're Next, which we used as comparisons in our preview below, and just behind the $735k brought in by 47 Meters Down prior to its $11.2 million debut last June.

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2 minutes ago, CJohn said:

30M OW looking good for AWiT but it will depend on how much it jumps tomorrow.

Yeah, thinking about 30-35 as well. Depends on if families will show up in force.

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2 minutes ago, MaxAggressor said:

From BOM:

 

Disney's A Wrinkle in Time delivered $1.3 million from Thursday night previews. This is well ahead of the $725k brought in by Tomorrowland ahead of its $33 million three-day and just behind Alice Through the Looking Glass, which brought in $1.5 million from Thursday previews ahead of a $34 million debut.

 

Aviron's The Strangers: Prey at Night brought in $610,000 from Thursday evening previews, which is better than both Kidnap and You're Next, which we used as comparisons in our preview below, and just behind the $735k brought in by 47 Meters Down prior to its $11.2 million debut last June.

Tomorrowland didn't have wide previews. It was IMAX only on previews night. That was a really weird decision since the movie doesn't exactly play any better in IMAX either.

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FRIDAY AM UPDATE: Disney's A Wrinkle in Time delivered $1.3 million from Thursday night previews. This is well ahead of the $725k brought in by Tomorrowland ahead of its $33 million three-day and just behind Alice Through the Looking Glass, which brought in $1.5 million from Thursday previews ahead of a $34 million debut.

LOOKING GLASS was a sequel so WRINKLE should have a better multi than 22.7x it had. BUT LOOKING GLASS fell only 10% on Sunday owing to 4-day weekend.

 

25x for 33 OW seems reasonable for WRINKLE no? In line with pre-release expectations.

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Also from Deadline regarding Black Panther

Quote

Black Panther after collecting $4.1M yesterday is starting its weekend with a domestic total of $520.8M. Many bet it will be No. 1 with  $40M-plus in its third weekend.

 

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14 minutes ago, Jake Gittes said:

If Black Panther is supposed to be such a hit how come it couldn't even push this number over the billion mark?

BP: WWW?

Edited by Wrath
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4.1

9.64 (+135%)

17.34 (+80%)

12.14 (-30%)

= 39.12

 

39 is the minimum BP should do IMO. 41-43 seems realistic. 

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15 minutes ago, Alli said:

I hope that in these trying times we can at least all unite in hating Allan Loeb. 

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