Weekend Thread: Weekend estimates pg 38...BP 41.14....WIT 33.31

[IronJimbo]

Just now, TwoMisfits said:

I get wanting to see some things burn...but shouldn't those be the 7th sequel to a crappy super or some remake from 4 years ago and also 8 years ago showing up again for try #3, not a 1st theatrical release of a pretty awesome story?  I mean, don't we want tentpoles to not all be supers/star wars/sequels?:)

Ha you got me there, I would love more variety in well made blockbusters.

[JB33]

I'm going with a 10/18/12/40 kind of weekend for BP. Seems about right, given the reported Thursday number. It should be neck and neck with AWiT.

[grey ghost]

If you guys wonder what Disney would be doing if they didn't rely Star Wars, Marvel, Pixar, WDAS and live action remakes?

 

Exhibit A: Wrinkle In Time

[IronJimbo]

Just now, grey ghost said:

If you guys wonder what Disney would be doing if they didn't rely Star Wars, Marvel, Pixar, WDAS and live action remakes?

 

Exhibit A: Wrinkle In Time

this is why we need to give power back to the directors

[WrathOfHan]

Listening to Double Toasted's WIT review, they say several times that it's a movie for very young kids, yet there's stuff that could scare them. That could hurt WOM a bit.

Edited March 9, 2018 by WrathOfHan

[filmlover]

Just now, grey ghost said:

If you guys wonder what Disney would be doing if they didn't rely Star Wars, Marvel, Pixar, WDAS and live action remakes?

 

Exhibit A: Wrinkle In Time

Eh, if John Carter, The Lone Ranger, and Tomorrowland losing oodles of money each wasn't enough to deter them from the occasional out there project, neither will this. Luckily this cost about half of the lowest-priced movie of the other three so at least they won't be swimming in red ink.

[MovieMan89]

1 minute ago, WrathOfHan said:

If Wrinkle in Time follows Jungle Book:

 

9.9M

12.6M

9.4M

31.9M Weekend

 

And yet if it follows Oz you get $52m. Following Wonder gets it $48m. Following the Boss Baby you get $43m. Following Alice 2 only gets it $23m. Exactly like I said, previews are very  inconsistent and unreliable for family films. I trust the strong MT performance to indicate a solid OW is happening. Again, unless BP is about to fall 60%+ this weekend. 

[YM!]

1 minute ago, grey ghost said:

If you guys wonder what Disney would be doing if they didn't rely Star Wars, Marvel, Pixar, WDAS and live action remakes?

 

Exhibit A: Wrinkle In Time

I’d prefer more WIT than remakes thank you. I’d rather have Disney try than become even more reliant on brands.

[a2k]

WiR was Peter Rabbit's 1st new comp. Mon-Wed Peter Rabbit fell 0% from last week so even a big drop this week could mean 30-40% but it could be on the lower side of that range. 35% drop from 10m last weekend for 6.5m this weekend will give 93+ cume. Next week's hold should be good and the following Mon-Thu should be good again before Sherlock Gnomes gives direct comp. But 100+ is ensured.

[KJsooner]

I actually kinda liked JCOM too bad Lynn Collins had nothing to work with.

[WrathOfHan]

 

Only 10k over Suburbicon  

[Jonwo]

Just now, filmlover said:

Eh, if John Carter, The Lone Ranger, and Tomorrowland losing oodles of money each wasn't enough to deter them from the occasional out there project, neither will this. Luckily this cost about half of the lowest-priced movie of the other three so at least they won't be swimming in red ink.

Artemis Fowl might do well and maybe Jungle Cruise. 

[filmlover]

Just now, a2knet said:

WiR was Peter Rabbit's 1st new comp. Mon-Wed Peter Rabbit fell 0% from last week so even a big drop this week could mean 30-40% but it could be on the lower side of that range. 35% drop from 10m last weekend for 6.5m this weekend will give 93+ cume. Next week's hold should be good and the following Mon-Thu should be good again before Sherlock Gnomes gives direct comp. But 100+ is ensured.

I doubt it sees a big drop. Home saw a miniscule drop despite being out for almost two months when Tomorrowland opened (and A Wrinkle in Time is looking similarly unlikely to draw in families en masse), for instance.

[grey ghost]

2 minutes ago, filmlover said:

Eh, if John Carter, The Lone Ranger, and Tomorrowland losing oodles of money each wasn't enough to deter them from the occasional out there project, neither will this. Luckily this cost about half of the lowest-priced movie of the other three so at least they won't be swimming in red ink.

I'm not say Disney relying on popular IP's is bad thing.

 

Clearly they're much better at that than the "original" stuff which mostly falls flat, random Lone Ranger horse gifs aside.

[filmlover]

1 minute ago, WrathOfHan said:

 

Only 10k over Suburbicon  

Yeah, the Suburbicon comparison is looking spot on. Those horrible reviews are gonna be deadly.

[a2k]

2 minutes ago, WrathOfHan said:

 

Only 10k over Suburbicon  

CRINGE-O

[TwoMisfits]

Usually MT.com is a pretty good indicator of weekend placement if there are decent gaps between the movies...now, BP has been out awhile, so won't have as many presales, so, maybe it will still have enough strength to get to the BO top, but right now, WiT is almost 6pts up on MT.com...BP will have to be very strong Sat/Sun to flip this weekend, unless MT is way off...

 

31.7% Wrinkle in Time, A

26% Black Panther

6.8% Strangers: Prey at Night, The

4.8% Red Sparrow

4.1% Peter Rabbit

 

[IronJimbo]

1 minute ago, grey ghost said:

I'm not say Disney relying on popular IP's is bad thing.

 

Clearly they're much better at that than the "original" stuff which mostly falls flat, random Lone Ranger horse gifs aside.

Disney seems to be falling flat on their face on the second step of making an original movie... step 1 make it original, step 2 make a good movie

[WrathOfHan]

Trailer stalkers @Blankments (I never got the trailer for Hurricane Heist/Strangers/Thoroughbreds):

 

6:

Pacific Rim: Uprising (Blade Runner, Geostorm, Thank You for Your Service, Thor: Ragnarok, Jumanji: Welcome to the Jungle, Annihilation)

A Quiet Place (Star Wars: The Last Jedi, Downsizing, Phantom Thread, The Shape of Water, Annihilation, Red Sparrow)

Sicario 2: Soldado (All the Money in the World, Molly’s Game, The Commuter, Phantom Thread, Annihilation, Red Sparrow)

 

5:

Alpha (Hitman’s Bodyguard, Geostorm, Thor: Ragnarok, Downsizing, Jumanji: Welcome to the Jungle)

Isle of Dogs (The LEGO Ninjago Movie, Downsizing, Phantom Thread, The Shape of Water, Black Panther)

 

4:

Love, Simon (The Greatest Showman, The Post, Red Sparrow, Game Night)

Ready Player One (It, Blade Runner 2049, Justice League, Star Wars: The Last Jedi)

Sherlock Gnomes (Coco, Wonder, The Greatest Showman, Jumanji: Welcome to the Jungle)

Tomb Raider (Geostorm, Justice League, Black Panther, Red Sparrow)

 

3:

Deadpool 2 (Justice League, Three Billboards Outside Ebbing, Missouri, Red Sparrow)

Rampage (Jumanji: Welcome to the Jungle, The Shape of Water, Annihilation)

Tully (The Post, Phantom Thread, Red Sparrow)

A Wrinkle in Time (Valerian, Murder on the Orient Express, Coco)

 

2:

7 Days in Entebbe (Darkest Hour, Phantom Thread)

Acrimony (The Commuter, Red Sparrow)

Alita: Battle Angel (Star Wars: The Last Jedi, Jumanji: Welcome to the Jungle)

Avengers: Infinity War (Star Wars: The Last Jedi, Downsizing)

Blockers (Downsizing, Game Night)

Gringo (Molly’s Game, The Commuter)

Incredibles 2 (Coco, Star Wars: The Last Jedi)

Jurassic World: Fallen Kingdom (Star Wars: The Last Jedi, Black Panther)

Mamma Mia! Here We Go Again (The Greatest Showman, The Post)

Mission: Impossible – Fallout (Black Panther, Annihilation)

Ocean’s 8 (The Greatest Showman, Game Night)

Polaroid (Wind River, mother!)

Venom (Black Panther, Game Night)

 

1:

Spoiler

 

Ant-Man and the Wasp (Black Panther)

Book Club (Game Night)

The Current War (Wind River)

Duck Duck Goose (Ninjago)

Hereditary (Annihilation)

Life of the Party (Game Night)

The Miracle Season (Jumanji: Welcome to the Jungle)

Mortal Engines (The Commuter)

The New Mutants (Thor: Ragnarok)

The Nutcracker and the Four Realms (The Greatest Showman)

Overboard (Game Night)

The Party (Lady Bird)

Sgt. Stubby: An American Hero (Wonder)

Smallfoot (Coco)

Solo: A Star Wars Story (Black Panther)

Super Troopers 2 (Kingsman)

Truth or Dare (Red Sparrow)

Uncle Drew (Annihilation)

Unsane (Game Night)

 

 

Edited March 9, 2018 by WrathOfHan

[YM!]

One positive for WIT: Gnomes looks like crap anyway and won’t do over $45M DOM should it shouldn’t have strong competition at all.