Monday Numbers: Black Panther:$4M, TOTAL WW:$1.1B by Tuesday!

[ZeeSoh]

1 minute ago, MovieMan89 said:

30m for BP this weekend? May not be impossible. 700 should happen for sure if it does that. 

Would need a 26.5% drop or better to get 30 million. Not impossible considering Deadpool fell the same percentage on its similar weekend and BP has been performing better than Deadpool on most weekends and dailies but I kinda doubt it as it will be too good to be true. But I see a fall around 30% which would still be awesome

[Godzilla]

Tomorrow's increases are going to be a muted cause of the Northeast storm.

[ZeeSoh]

1 minute ago, Noctis said:

What underperformance? Didn't it have a $65m OW in China?

Yes but its turning out to be incredibly front loaded. It had the highest PS of any SH movie since Civil War and many expected it to do 80-90 million opening and 130-140 total off of that PS. But it turned out to be very frontloaded and its relatively low rating over there isnt helping things either. 

 

Still it will make over 100 million which is pretty standard for most SH movies and definitely better than most were expecting before its presales blew up. 

 

But had it made 130-140 over there then it would have likely gone over DH2

[MovieMan89]

4 minutes ago, ZeeSoh said:

Would need a 26.5% drop or better to get 30 million. Not impossible considering Deadpool fell the same percentage on its similar weekend and BP has been performing better than Deadpool on most weekends and dailies but I kinda doubt it as it will be too good to be true. But I see a fall around 30% which would still be awesome

Will likely be around $3.8m on Thursday based off the Monday number. It wouldn't even need Fri/Sat holds nearly as good as the past couple weeks to hit 30 from there:

 

$7.6m (+100%)

$13.4m (+76%)

$9m (-33%)

30m

 

[ZeeSoh]

9 minutes ago, MovieMan89 said:

Will likely be around $3.8m on Thursday based off the Monday number. It wouldn't even need Fri/Sat holds nearly as good as the past couple weeks to hit 30 from there:

 

$7.6m (+100%)

$13.4m (+76%)

$9m (-33%)

30m

 

I doubt it will get to 3.8 by Thursday. Same drops as Deadpool will get it to 3.2-3.4 million. 3.8 would require some very very good holds, better than deadpool and that movie already hady great holds this week. I think a total of around 3.3-3.4 is more likely

[Mojoguy]

Jumanji getting ready to join the 400M club!

[CJohn]

@MCKillswitch123 The Queen is the LAW

 

http://www.ica-ip.pt/fotos/downloads/ranking_fds_8_a_11_marco_2018_157305aa662a7ce7c4.pdf

 

Starting to think Tomb Raider might not win this weekend if Red Sparrow has an hold like this again.

[a2k]

BP has now added DP's final dom to it's OW, 202 + 363 = 565

And I think t's looking at 202 + ~500 = 700+

[Porthos]

FWIW, AWiT (-71.6) had a comparable drop to Oz (-71.3) in 2013 and a slightly better one than Cinderella (-73%) in 2015.

 

Using those movies as comps since both were in this same period of March with Easter at a similar-ish point in the calendar.

 

Mostly noting to see if it is even barely possible AWiT can reach 100m.

 

Of course, both Oz and Cinderella did a LOT more on their OW, so the comparisons aren't perfect to say the least.  

Edited March 13, 2018 by Porthos

[grim22]

1 minute ago, Porthos said:

FWIW, AWiT (-71.6) had a comparable drop to Oz (-71.3) in 2013 and a slightly better one than Cinderella (-73%) in 2015.

 

Using those movies as comps since both were in this same week with Easter at a similar-ish point in the calendar.

 

Mostly noting to see if it is even barely possible AWiT can reach 100m.

 

I remember both those movies not exactly being known for their legs, especially for family movies. Without looking it up, I think both of them fell short of a 3x, not by a lot but they didn't hit that multiplier. Opening higher than WIT means that late holds will be a problem for WIT since theaters will be less inclined to keep it around if it is not making a lot.

[Porthos]

9 minutes ago, grim22 said:

 

I remember both those movies not exactly being known for their legs, especially for family movies. Without looking it up, I think both of them fell short of a 3x, not by a lot but they didn't hit that multiplier. Opening higher than WIT means that late holds will be a problem for WIT since theaters will be less inclined to keep it around if it is not making a lot.

Oz: 2.969x

Cinderella: 2.9634x

 

So maybe just short.

 

===

 

The flip side to opening higher is that it's tougher to reach 3x given the larger start.

 

AWiT probably taps out at 95m, at best.  But if it's 98m or so, Disney could just stubbornly leave it in its branded theaters for six months and just wait it out.  IF it even cares.

 

I note that they TRIED to get over the 100m line with Gnomeo and Juliet (that one was distributed by Disney) before just giving up at 99.98m:

 

Quote

Date (click to view chart)	Rank	Weekly Gross	% Change	Theaters / Change		Avg.	Gross-to-Date	Week #
Feb 11–17	3	$31,020,532	-	2,994	-	$10,361	$31,020,532	1
Feb 18–24	2	$29,913,574	-3.6%	3,014	+20	$9,925	$60,934,106	2
Feb 25–Mar 3	3	$15,847,904	-47.0%	3,037	+23	$5,218	$76,782,010	3
Mar 4–10	5	$8,703,100	-45.1%	2,984	-53	$2,917	$85,485,110	4
Mar 11–17	8	$5,803,272	-33.3%	2,585	-399	$2,245	$91,288,382	5
Mar 18–24	11	$3,074,152	-47.0%	1,748	-837	$1,759	$94,362,534	6
Mar 25–31	14	$2,073,810	-32.5%	1,364	-384	$1,520	$96,436,344	7
Apr 1–7	19	$639,543	-69.2%	735	-629	$870	$97,075,887	8
Apr 8–14	27	$283,530	-55.7%	284	-451	$998	$97,359,417	9
Apr 15–21	22	$636,592	+125%	355	+71	$1,793	$97,996,009	10
Apr 22–28	22	$475,417	-25.3%	345	-10	$1,378	$98,471,426	11
Apr 29–May 5	27	$359,794	-24.3%	293	-52	$1,228	$98,831,220	12
May 6–12	29	$278,969	-22.5%	250	-43	$1,116	$99,110,189	13
May 13–19	31	$240,557	-13.8%	194	-56	$1,240	$99,350,746	14
May 20–26	38	$164,828	-31.5%	158	-36	$1,043	$99,515,574	15
May 27–Jun 2	38	$147,180	-10.7%	111	-47	$1,326	$99,662,754	16
Jun 3–9	40	$91,206	-38.0%	85	-26	$1,073	$99,753,957	17
Jun 10–16	49	$40,609	-55.5%	43	-42	$944	$99,794,566	18
Jun 17–23	53	$27,121	-33.2%	23	-20	$1,179	$99,821,687	19

 

Might try something similar here.

Edited March 13, 2018 by Porthos

[WrathOfHan]

24 minutes ago, CJohn said:

@MCKillswitch123 The Queen is the LAW

 

http://www.ica-ip.pt/fotos/downloads/ranking_fds_8_a_11_marco_2018_157305aa662a7ce7c4.pdf

 

Starting to think Tomb Raider might not win this weekend if Red Sparrow has an hold like this again.

What happens if Dark Phoenix is the highest grossing CBM over there in 2018?

7 minutes ago, grim22 said:

 

I remember both those movies not exactly being known for their legs, especially for family movies. Without looking it up, I think both of them fell short of a 3x, not by a lot but they didn't hit that multiplier. Opening higher than WIT means that late holds will be a problem for WIT since theaters will be less inclined to keep it around if it is not making a lot.

Yeah, I don't see it lasting long at many mid-size theaters. It'll be in under 1k theaters on the 13th, and the majority of mid-size theaters might get rid of it on the 6th.

[Porthos]

7 minutes ago, Porthos said:

I note that they TRIED to get over the 100m line with Gnomeo and Juliet (that one was distributed by Disney) before just giving up at 99.98m:

Huh.  I was wondering about that.

 

Gnomeo and Juliet holds the dubious distinction for being the closest movie to get close to 100m without actually reaching it:

 

Quote

694	The Hunchback of Notre Dame	BV	$100,138,851	1996
695	Seven	NL	$100,125,643	1995
696	Parenthood	Uni.	$100,047,830	1989
697	You Don't Mess with the Zohan	Sony	$100,018,837	2008
698	Passengers (2016)	Sony	$100,014,699	2016
699	Die Hard: With A Vengeance	Fox	$100,012,499	1995
700	Gnomeo and Juliet	BV	$99,967,670	2011

 

701	Hercules	BV	$99,112,101	1997
702	Olympus Has Fallen	FD	$98,925,640	2013
703	The Green Hornet	Sony	$98,780,042	2011
704	Date Night	Fox	$98,711,404	2010
705	Fifty Shades Freed	Uni.	$98,534,545	2018
706	The Color Purple	WB	$98,467,863	1985^

That figure for G&J is a little off as its page on BOM lists it has having 99.98 on its charts and not 99.96.

 

Also interesting that 99m looks to be the dividing line between "going to fudge or not" with only Hercules at 99.1 sitting above it.

[Krissykins]

I actually zone out when a film is performing as big as Black Panther is and stop checking it’s box office. 

 

Massive though lol

[Gamora]

10 minutes ago, Krissykins said:

I actually zone out when a film is performing as big as Black Panther is and stop checking it’s box office. 

 

Massive though lol

I was just thinking the same thing. It's whooping so much ass I only check the weekend grosses now.

[dxmatrixdt]

	AVG # OF PEOPLE PER THEATER…..  AVG TICKET PRICE = $9.18
			Friday	Saturday	Sunday		Sum		Mon	Tues	Weds	Thurs		TOTAL
3942	Black Panther		277	507	344		1128		112	138	101	101		578.04
3980	Wrinkle in Time		246	373	254		873		72	92	67	65		43.95
2464	Strangers 2		150	176	107		433		38	46	35	32		13.83
3064	Red Sparrow		83	136	83		302		31	40	31	28		35.13
3061	Game Night		78	126	75		279		30	37	30	28		48.52
2882	Death Wish		66	111	72		249		24	31	25	23		26.59
549	Thoroughbreds		87	91	65		243		30	36	27	27		1.83
3112	Peter Rabbit		52	109	76		237		30	36	30	30		97.03
952	Greatest Showman		55	105	58		218		27	33	27	25		168.59
1709	Annihilation		56	90	65		211		26	32	26	24		27.94
1552	Shape of Water		44	75	45		164		17	20	17	17		61.95
194	Coco		32	65	49		146		17	20	17	17		208.97
2157	Jumanji		34	65	40		139		16	20	16	16		398.6
184	Phantom Thread		34	65	40		139		14	16	15	14		20.81
2402	Hurricane Heist		43	56	38		137		14	19	14	12		4.33
552	Three Billboards		35	65	37		137		15	18	15	15		53.65
278	The Post		30	65	33		128		13	15	14	12		81.3
156	Lady Bird		30	58	33		121		13	15	14	12		48.78
245	Darkest Hour		30	56	32		118		13	15	14	12		56.21
243	I, Tonya		31	53	34		118		14	17	15	14		29.64
246	Star Wars		30	54	34		118		14	16	14	14		619.62
2404	Gringo		36	47	32		115		13	17	13	11		3.92
1357	Fifty Shades Freed		36	47	27		110		12	15	13	11		99.02
309	Call Me by Your Name		27	47	30		104		12	14	14	12		17.61
201	Ferdinand		26	47	29		102		23	23	23	23		83.53
214	Maze Runner 3		23	44	26		93		10	12	11	10		57.53
104	Den of Thieves		22	33	23		78		9	10	10	8		44.9
261	Winchester		20	32	18		70		6	7	7	5		24.93
420	15:17 to Paris		20	29	20		69		8	12	9	7		35.91
281	Paddington 2		16	27	20		63		10	11	11	11		40.45
111	12 Strong		18	27	18		63		6	7	6	6		45.33
186	Early Man		15	25	21		61		9	10	9	9		8.09
615	Every Day		13	19	12		44		5	7	6	4		6.08
40387

[dxmatrixdt]

^^ obviously Tue-Thurs are guesses and the other numbers are not that great since they are all rounded up or down

[CJohn]

10 hours ago, WrathOfHan said:

What happens if Dark Phoenix is the highest grossing CBM over there in 2018?

Impossible  It should do well, tho.

[sfran43]

Tuesday's numbers!! 

 

[sfran43]