The Summer Game is Here!! Infernus wins it... pipping WrathofHan in the final revels who had to settle for second after leading the whole way... Wrath wrapped it up in third!

[MovieMan89]

2 minutes ago, WrathOfHan said:

Yeah, it needs to open to at least 25M to even have a shot at making it into the Top 15. THB had three weeks as well last summer and only made 55.2M by the end of the game, which wasn't enough to crack the top 15.

Yeah, I was thinking more along the lines of 30m OW potential, but again I need to see a trailer.

[baumer]

If there's any film that I think is a little off the radar, that could crack the top 15, even though it comes out late, is MEG.  I think once the marketing gets in gear, it could generate a lot of interest.

[MovieMan89]

1 hour ago, baumer said:

If there's any film that I think is a little off the radar, that could crack the top 15, even though it comes out late, is MEG.  I think once the marketing gets in gear, it could generate a lot of interest.

Statham on his own has yet to take a film over 45m DOM. I can't see him suddenly leading a 100m+ vehicle after all this time. All non-Jaws shark films have a history of under-performing at the box office (hell, that even applies to the Jaws sequels). Even The Shallows, which had great WOM, only managed to top out at $55m. Beyond all that, the odds of it doing the book justice seem pretty slim, and there's likely a higher chance of huge fan disappointment than satisfaction. 

[baumer]

4 hours ago, MovieMan89 said:

Statham on his own has yet to take a film over 45m DOM. I can't see him suddenly leading a 100m+ vehicle after all this time. All non-Jaws shark films have a history of under-performing at the box office (hell, that even applies to the Jaws sequels). Even The Shallows, which had great WOM, only managed to top out at $55m. Beyond all that, the odds of it doing the book justice seem pretty slim, and there's likely a higher chance of huge fan disappointment than satisfaction. 

 

I disagree with everything you said here. 

[MovieMan89]

16 minutes ago, baumer said:

 

I disagree with everything you said here. 

Ok? Besides the last part, they're all facts so not really sure what to say...

[baumer]

3 hours ago, MovieMan89 said:

Ok? Besides the last part, they're all facts so not really sure what to say...

 

Yes, they are facts, but the last part is the opinion I disagree with.

[norbar]

18 hours ago, baumer said:

 

Yes, they are facts, but the last part is the opinion I disagree with.

The thing is in forecasting if you want to be accurate you always have to start with historic data and then correct from there. So historic data suggests $40m on a not bad, not good movie. going $100m would require an amazing movie and so far there is nothing that informs us on the quality of the movie. The only thing really working for Meg is that there are no August releases that look like strong competition to it. 

[Deke Rivers]

7 hours ago, norbar said:

The thing is in forecasting if you want to be accurate you always have to start with historic data and then correct from there. So historic data suggests $40m on a not bad, not good movie. going $100m would require an amazing movie and so far there is nothing that informs us on the quality of the movie. The only thing really working for Meg is that there are no August releases that look like strong competition to it. 

He never did a movie like this. It is a big budget movie with a major. It is more like Kong than a Statham film.

[baumer]

8 hours ago, Deke Rivers said:

He never did a movie like this. It is a big budget movie with a major. It is more like Kong than a Statham film.

 

Good point.  And welcome to the forums!

[norbar]

11 hours ago, Deke Rivers said:

He never did a movie like this. It is a big budget movie with a major. It is more like Kong than a Statham film.

I agree it's not a typical Statham film. So 40 may be low but this is also why I didn't say 20 which is more usual for him. 

 

Have in mind this is a b-grade blockbuster. You get some online celebrities (Ruby Rose), Statham, a few character actors and a Chinease superstar so it's easy to see they are aiming more for the Intl market than US. 

 

Still Kong is a bad comparison for a few reasons. First of all you had a WAY WAY more well known character, a much more recognizable cast, much better writers and much higher profile producers (I will take Tull over Bonaventura any day. Bonaventura has a ton of busts in his resume even if Tull is not consistent either the production value on his movies is MUCH better). Kong was simply a movie someone put much more care into. Meg seems like something that might as well be presold to foreign distributors by Lionsgate. So ok not 40 but 60m total. If the movie is good I give that to you but again remember people judge the book by the cover and first thought will be "Shark movie" unless they really make a trailer that makes it look like something more. 

 

 

 

Also it's very IMPORTANT to note Rampage is tracking for 65m in US total. Also a big studio monster movie and that one has Dwayne not Statham. 

[baumer]

8 hours ago, norbar said:

I agree it's not a typical Statham film. So 40 may be low but this is also why I didn't say 20 which is more usual for him. 

 

Have in mind this is a b-grade blockbuster. You get some online celebrities (Ruby Rose), Statham, a few character actors and a Chinease superstar so it's easy to see they are aiming more for the Intl market than US. 

 

Still Kong is a bad comparison for a few reasons. First of all you had a WAY WAY more well known character, a much more recognizable cast, much better writers and much higher profile producers (I will take Tull over Bonaventura any day. Bonaventura has a ton of busts in his resume even if Tull is not consistent either the production value on his movies is MUCH better). Kong was simply a movie someone put much more care into. Meg seems like something that might as well be presold to foreign distributors by Lionsgate. So ok not 40 but 60m total. If the movie is good I give that to you but again remember people judge the book by the cover and first thought will be "Shark movie" unless they really make a trailer that makes it look like something more. 

 

 

 

Also it's very IMPORTANT to note Rampage is tracking for 65m in US total. Also a big studio monster movie and that one has Dwayne not Statham. 

 

Rampage will make closer to 65 OW than it does total.  And I'd be willing to bet on that.

[norbar]

19 hours ago, baumer said:

 

Rampage will make closer to 65 OW than it does total.  And I'd be willing to bet on that.

Not what tracking tells us for now. Are you suggesting it will blow up suddenly? What will cause it to? Tracking can be wrong but that's usually when we get new info like when hype for a movie grows (the hype is meh) or if the movie is bad (so the wom kills it)? The $65m total tracking seems low I agree but both you and me haven't look at the data (views and impressions on various sites). 

 

The thing is San Andreas made 150m total. This has much less buzz around it and is Sandwitched Between Avengers, Deadpool 2, Solo and Jurrasic World. So not only Avengers legs limit the opening but the legs will be cut short by 3 blockbusters each of whom will make 300/400+ even on conservative predictions.

[baumer]

Its a gut feeling.  Sometimes you have to listen to your gut.  

[Kvikk Lunsj]

On 3/25/2018 at 9:27 AM, baumer said:

If there's any film that I think is a little off the radar, that could crack the top 15, even though it comes out late, is MEG.  I think once the marketing gets in gear, it could generate a lot of interest.

We need to get trailer soon. 

[chasmmi]

 

 

 

[chasmmi]

@WrathOfHan @That One Guy

 

Altered the prices and starting points in SOTM2 slightly upon second reflection. 

 

Won't change them again now. You're entries are both valid, but you have more options. 

[WrathOfHan]

Just now, chasmmi said:

@WrathOfHan @That One Guy

 

Altered the prices and starting points in SOTM2 slightly upon second reflection. 

 

Won't change them again now. You're entries are both valid, but you have more options. 

I was going to say; the top three were impossible to buy  

[MovieMan89]

On 4/1/2018 at 8:53 AM, chasmmi said:

@WrathOfHan @That One Guy

 

Altered the prices and starting points in SOTM2 slightly upon second reflection. 

 

Won't change them again now. You're entries are both valid, but you have more options. 

We have 30,000 points to invest right? Just making sure because right after you say that you also say we can choose to keep our 25,000 points instead. So is it 30 or 25? 

[Plain Old Tele]

So I guess SUPER TROOPERS 2 is disqualified? It opens on 4/20 now. 

[chasmmi]

It's 30k. I just didn't catch all the changes. 

 

And Super Troopers is still valid to choose.