Weekend Box Office: Actuals (Page 55): BP $26.6M TR $23.7M ICOI $17.1M AWIT $16.3M LS $11.8M, PR crosses $100M, Jumanji crosses $400M

[filmlover]

Has anyone seen even a TV spot for Midnight Sun? Sub-$2M opening incoming right there.

[Zakiyyah6]

Just now, EmpireCity said:

Man, this is going to be one of those movies where people will not accept anything less than pure sunshine blown up their ass when it comes to discussing even the raw numbers. 

So another Wrinkle in Time?

[Zakiyyah6]

Just now, filmlover said:

Has anyone seen even a TV spot for Midnight Sun? Sub-$2M opening incoming right there.

I have and the film looks terrible. God is Bella Thorne a terrible actress. I think it will be an epic bomb.

[That One Girl]

1 minute ago, EmpireCity said:

Man, this is going to be one of those movies where people will not accept anything less than pure sunshine blown up their ass when it comes to discussing even the raw numbers. 

 

The raw numbers show that a film with an A+ CinemaScore has a significantly higher chance of getting a big multiplier

[filmlover]

Just now, Zakiyyah6 said:

I have and the film looks terrible. God is Bella Thorne a terrible actress. I think it will be an epic bomb.

The movie began shooting in October 2015. She's really making a name for herself by appearing in long-delayed flops, huh?

[baumer]

ICOI is on pace, according to DL, to open to 12 million.  I've never heard of it or seen any commercials for it.  An A+ score is definitely going to help it.  As for Love, Simon, an A+ score will definitely help it as well.  I want to see it, but it's way down on my list.  But with an A+ score, it will probably get me into the theatre sooner rather than later.

[EmpireCity]

3 minutes ago, That One Guy said:

 

The raw numbers show that a film with an A+ CinemaScore has a significantly higher chance of getting a big multiplier

It has a higher chance for sure, but again, the calendar is no friend to it.  Having a major religious Holiday and 16 new wide releases between now and April 13th isn't a good thing.  

 

Hopefully it breaks through and can make it despite Fox not really pushing it all that hard.  Fox might fight more to keep it around, but they will also be pushing hard to get screens for Isle of Dogs.  

[Zakiyyah6]

3 minutes ago, filmlover said:

The movie began shooting in October 2015. She's really making a name for herself by appearing in long-delayed flops, huh?

She really is. I wonder how long her constant failure will last as far as theatrical releases are concerned.

[TalismanRing]

11 minutes ago, That One Guy said:

 

Disney dumped it in 1200 theaters with very little marketing and did their best to make sure no one knew of its existence.

From what I recall the marketing while not great was not poor either for film with this kind of roll out. 

 

Focus, Fox etc do it with very little marketing all the time.  It just didn't build the kind of WOM it should have from reviews and that A+ score.

 

Sep 23–25	22	$304,933	-	52	-	$5,864	$304,933	1
Sep 30–Oct 2	7	$2,495,427	+718%	1,242	+1,190	$2,009	$2,898,436	2

Oct 7–9	10	$1,627,313	-34.8%	1,259	+17	$1,293	$5,393,949	3
Oct 14–16	14	$877,363	-46.1%	1,062	-197	$826	$7,031,787	4
Oct 21–23	21	$374,379	-57.3%	319	-743	$1,174	$7,748,974	5

 

Still, it did better than some very well regarded movies in the Specialty B.O.

[EmpireCity]

Also, speaking of raw numbers, as good as the RT and Cinemascore is for Love, Simon it is currently #4 in per theater average likely for the weekend despite being in a more limited 2,400 theater run.  

 

Tomb Raider (3,800+ theaters), Black Panther in Week 5 and of course I Can Only Imagine are all likely to beat its per theater average by a decent amount.  

[YLF]

Tomb Raider got a B cinemascore. I didn't see anyone mention it. But sorry if someone already did.

[Zakiyyah6]

I was rooting on Love Simon and I think it will do decently in the end.

[Rorschach]

17 minutes ago, Zakiyyah6 said:

I have and the film looks terrible. God is Bella Thorne a terrible actress. I think it will be an epic bomb.

The Daniel Day-Lewis of bad actresses?

[BoxOfficeFangrl]

16 minutes ago, harrycaul said:

I dunno why they'd dump a film with universally good reactions and two recognizable stars. Couldn't figure out the marketing or something, I guess.

It was a movie about chess, the genre is a total box office disaster.

[harrycaul]

3 minutes ago, BoxOfficeChica said:

It was a movie about chess, the genre is a total box office disaster.

Yeah, but they knew that before they paid for it.

[MikeQ]

51 minutes ago, EmpireCity said:

 

I put it in the other thread, but the timing for Love, Simon might end up hurting it.  

 

Not only is there a lot of younger skewing PG-13 competition in the next 3-4 weeks, but like it or not the Easter Holiday might actually hurt it.  Same sort of thing happened over Christmas to Call Me By Your Name and how that bottomed out on some level because a lot of people gay and straight are with family for that weekend and most families won't choose that to go to with all the other options out at the same time.  

 

Either way, hope it finds a way to stick around. Maybe it can become the second mega legs hit for Fox in the last few months.  

I hear what you're saying, as there are a good slew of younger skewing PG-13 films opening, but I don't think most of the coming releases really represent significant competition or overlap in the target demo. A crowd pleasing gay romantic comedy like Love, Simon I think would have room to breathe.

 

The bigger films in the coming couple weeks like Pacific Rim, Sherlock Gnomes, and Ready Player One I think all represent distinctly different demos. Midnight Sun may have some overlap, but it looks to me like it will be opening with very small numbers (boxoffice.com's projection is a $6M opening - not sure what tracking is at). 

 

'Love, Simon' feels distinct enough that it can ride with some great legs. And as much as I loved CMBYN, I don't think it is a good comparison. It is much more of an arthouse type of gay film than something like 'Love, Simon' which seems a whole lot more mainstream and accessible.

 

But we all may be getting a little ahead of ourselves here- let's actually see how it does this weekend to see where it's starting at. If it does have a strong Friday number, and a good internal multiplier for the weekend with good WOM, maybe it will be a weekend closer to $20M than most people thought. *shrug*

 

Peace,

Mike

Edited March 17, 2018 by MikeQ

[BoxOfficeFangrl]

7 minutes ago, harrycaul said:

Yeah, but they knew that before they paid for it.

True, maybe they thought it would win Oscars or something....

[That One Girl]

10 minutes ago, BoxOfficeChica said:

It was a movie about chess, the genre is a total box office disaster.

 

Hidden Figures is a movie about math and that made a shit ton of money because Fox actually marketed it and didn’t fuck up its release

[Deja23]

33 minutes ago, Zakiyyah6 said:

I have not seen any proof that attached trailers help other movies at the box office. I have no idea why that myth is believed. Black Panther will have a good drop because the word of mouth is good and it hasn't had any real competition. 

Didn’t Thor Ragnarok have really good holds during the week the first IW trailer dropped? Obviously Black Panther is doing really well this week due to Spring Break, but it’s not like there’s no precedent for a trailer helping another movie in the MCU. 

[MikeQ]

25 minutes ago, EmpireCity said:

It has a higher chance for sure, but again, the calendar is no friend to it.  Having a major religious Holiday and 16 new wide releases between now and April 13th isn't a good thing.  

 

Hopefully it breaks through and can make it despite Fox not really pushing it all that hard.  Fox might fight more to keep it around, but they will also be pushing hard to get screens for Isle of Dogs.  

 

Is a major religious holiday really a negative for it? It seems like a definite net positive to me - aren't the Easter holidays typically good for all movies as people are off work and can go to the movies? The really devoutly religious are probably not likely to check out a film like 'Love, Simon', but for everyone else it represents time off work/school, which is good for all films.

 

Peace,

Mike