Weekend Box Office: Actuals (Page 55): BP $26.6M TR $23.7M ICOI $17.1M AWIT $16.3M LS $11.8M, PR crosses $100M, Jumanji crosses $400M

[Zakiyyah6]

7 minutes ago, That One Guy said:

 

There should’ve been rancid reviews for the first Pacific Rim.  Rewatched the other day and blehhhhh

It's a terrible movie. Watching it was torture for me, pure torture.

Edited March 17, 2018 by Zakiyyah6

[a2k]

Disney all gets the honor of back to back 600+ films. They have had back to back 300+ before. I don't think anyone has managed consecutive 400+ even. Wrinkle spoils the party else AIW was gonna keep at least the 500+ streak going.

Edited March 17, 2018 by a2knet

[sfran43]

 

[sfran43]

This is terrible, just 3 $100M+ movies by the end of March!😩😣

[MCKillswitch123]

16 minutes ago, BK007 said:

 

What a pointless comment.

 

 

It was a harmless joke about box office. There's nothing pointless about harmless box office jokes in a box office thread.

 

And for the record, Black Panther's success doesn't actually take away anything from Jumanji 2's tremendous or Peter Rabbit's really strong performances.

 

@sfran43 The crazy thing is that there's a possibility that no March movie grosses 100M at all. Which, coming out of last year's powerhouse March (Logan, Kong, BATB, Boss Baby.... even Power Rangers opened huge), is just the pits. Red Sparrow, Tomb Raider, Love, Simon, Pacific Rim... all of their chances are dead in the water at this point. A Wrinkle In Time could only do it if it starts pulling a Peter Rabbit and catching up, and eventually overtaking, its best comparison - Tomorrowland - through lack of competition.... which is hiiiiighly unlikely given that Tomorrowland had Summer weekdays. Right now, Sherlock Gnomes and Ready Player One are the only ones w/a chance, and even then, it's not a very high one.

 

Luckily, we're looking to have the biggest April ever (Infinity War, Rampage, A Quiet Place, maybe Blockers), so it's all fine 

Edited March 17, 2018 by MCKillswitch123

[Zakiyyah6]

What kind of drop does A Wrinkle in Time need to guarantee a 100mil I wonder? Honestly I haven't crunched the numbers but a high 40's drop doesn't seem great for a suppose kids movie.

[filmlover]

Just now, Zakiyyah6 said:

What kind of drop does A Wrinkle in Time need to guarantee a 100mil I wonder? Honestly I haven't crunched the numbers but a high 40's drop doesn't seem great for a suppose kids movie.

$100M is pretty much dead at this point. $90M is about where it will land.

[WrathOfHan]

Let's do some forecasting on the openers:

 

Tomb Raider:

Mar 16: 23.7M (8.2M weekdays, 31.9M Total)

Mar 23: 11.1M (4.2M weekdays, 47.2M Total)

Mar 30: 5.3M (2.3M weekdays, 54.8M Total)

Apr 6: 2.5M (800k weekdays, 58.1M Total)

Apr 13: 1M (300k weekdays, 59.4M Total)

Final Total: 61M (2.57x)

 

Nothing extraordinary to say about this other than a profit will be made WW.

 

Love, Simon:

Mar 16: 14.5M (5.7M weekdays, 20.2M Total)

Mar 23: 10.5M (4.1M weekdays, 34.8M Total)

Mar 30: 6.6M (2.2M weekdays, 43.6M Total)

Apr 6: 4.7M (1.3M weekdays, 49.6M Total)

Apr 13: 2.3M (700k weekdays, 52.6M Total)

Apr 20: 1.7M (500k weekdays, 54.8M Total)

Apr 27: 600k (200k weekdays, 55.6M Total)

Final Total: 57M (3.93x)

 

I might be lowballing April 6's drop, but it could be an alternative to A Quiet Place and Blockers sellouts.

 

I Can Only Imagine:

Mar 16: 13.9M (3.5M weekdays, 17.4M Total)

Mar 23: 5.5M (1.8M weekdays, 24.7M Total)

Mar 30: 3M (1.5M weekdays, 29.2M Total)

Apr 6: 1.5M (500k weekdays, 31.2M Total)

Final Total: 33M (2.37x)

 

Like I said, this thing is looking frontloaded as fuck. Using Woodlawn as a comparison, the Saturday increases are going to be muted over the next few weeks, especially on Easter weekend. It doesn't help that there's two other religious films opening even if they won't be on the scale of this one.

Edited March 17, 2018 by WrathOfHan

[bcf26]

The music video of I Can Only Imagine on youtube has 54M views.

[Zakiyyah6]

2 minutes ago, filmlover said:

$100M is pretty much dead at this point. $90M is about where it will land.

So just like Tomorrowland. 

[ban1o]

it's weird I grew up going to church and I have never heard of the song "I can only Imagine" but I read somewhere that it is the most played and best selling contemporary christian song of all time. There really is a huge divide in the black church and the white church lmao. 

Edited March 17, 2018 by ban1o

[TwoMisfits]

3 minutes ago, WrathOfHan said:

Let's do some forecasting on the openers:

 

Tomb Raider:

Mar 16: 23.7M (8.2M weekdays, 31.9M Total)

Mar 23: 11.1M (4.2M weekdays, 47.2M Total)

Mar 30: 5.3M (2.3M weekdays, 54.8M Total)

Apr 6: 2.5M (800k weekdays, 58.1M Total)

Apr 13: 1M (300k weekdays, 59.4M Total)

Final Total: 61M (2.57x)

 

Nothing extraordinary to say about this other than a profit will be made WW.

 

Love, Simon:

Mar 16: 14.5M (5.7M weekdays, 20.2M Total)

Mar 23: 10.5M (4.1M weekdays, 34.8M Total)

Mar 30: 6.6M (2.2M weekdays, 43.6M Total)

Apr 6: 4.7M (1.3M weekdays, 49.6M Total)

Apr 13: 2.3M (700k weekdays, 52.6M Total)

Apr 20: 1.7M (500k weekdays, 54.8M Total)

Apr 27: 600k (200k weekdays, 55.6M Total)

Final Total: 57M (3.93x)

 

I might be lowballing April 6's drop, but it could be an alternative to A Quiet Place and Blockers sellouts.

 

I Can Only Imagine:

Mar 16: 13.9M (3.5M weekdays, 17.4M Total)

Mar 23: 5.5M (1.8M weekdays, 24.7M Total)

Mar 30: 3M (1.5M weekdays, 29.2M Total)

Apr 6: 1.5M (500k weekdays, 31.2M Total)

Final Total: 33M (2.37x)

 

Like I said, this thing is looking frontloaded as fuck. Using Woodlawn as a comparison, the Saturday increases are going to be muted over the next few weeks, especially on Easter weekend. It doesn't help that there's two other religious films opening even if they won't be on the scale of this one.

Not saying you're wrong, but if it opens #3 of 3 of the openers, you really think Love Simon will last long enough in theaters to hit a 3.93x?  Do teen rom-coms normally pull that kinda multiplier, especially when another teen movie, RPO, is coming in 2 weeks?  I mean, there are lots of movies to fit the next few weeks, and not lots of open screens right now (and I can't see BP or the Rabbit getting punted, especially before Easter:).  I mean, I hope you're right...but I can see ICOI getting a longer tail from the heartland and Love Simon getting a shorter run in the metros to fit everything that needs to fit, leading to some adjustments on both your multipliers...

[TwoMisfits]

1 minute ago, ban1o said:

it's weird I grew up going to church and I have never heard of the song I can only Imagine but I read somewhere that it is the most played contemporary christian song. There really is a huge divide the black church and the white church lmao. 

It crossed over to pop when it was popular...that's how I knew it...it's one of the few cross-over hits...

[ban1o]

4 minutes ago, TwoMisfits said:

It crossed over to pop when it was popular...that's how I knew it...it's one of the few cross-over hits...

mm maybe I was too young in 2001 I was 8... 

 

mm listening to it again it sounds faintly familiar. but a lot of christian pop songs sound similar so I can't really be sure. 

Edited March 17, 2018 by ban1o

[Zakiyyah6]

I'm a black Muslim and I knew about it because it played on the radio every minute of every day.

[WrathOfHan]

7 minutes ago, TwoMisfits said:

Not saying you're wrong, but if it opens #3 of 3 of the openers, you really think Love Simon will last long enough in theaters to hit a 3.93x?  Do teen rom-coms normally pull that kinda multiplier, especially when another teen movie, RPO, is coming in 2 weeks?  I mean, there are lots of movies to fit the next few weeks, and not lots of open screens right now (and I can't see BP or the Rabbit getting punted, especially before Easter:).  I mean, I hope you're right...but I can see ICOI getting a longer tail from the heartland and Love Simon getting a shorter run in the metros to fit everything that needs to fit, leading to some adjustments on both your multipliers...

With outstanding WOM, definitely. I'm predicting it'll last at my theater until April 13 when it experiences a really bad drop:

 

Ready Player One x2

A Quiet Place

A Quiet Place/God's Not Dead 3

Blockers

Chappaquiddick

The Miracle Season

Acrimony

Sherlock Gnomes

Pacific Rim

Love, Simon

Black Panther

 

You and I have been seeing at our theaters that ICOI is very frontloaded, so once Easter passes, theaters will probably drop it. Maybe it keeps half a screen with Simon. Additionally, GND3 is selling very poorly at my theater, so that can be put on half a screen to get more showings for AQP.

Edited March 17, 2018 by WrathOfHan

[Sheikh]

https://pro.boxoffice.com/weekend-report-tomb-raider-black-panther-can-imagine-love-simon/

 

WIDE (1000+)

#	TITLE	WEEKEND		LOCATIONS		AVG.	TOTAL	WKS.	DIST.
1	Black Panther	$30,500,000	-25%	3,834	-108	$7,955	$608,876,528	5	Disney
2	Tomb Raider	$22,100,000	—	3,854	—	$5,734	$22,100,000	1	Warner Bros.
3	I Can Only Imagine	$17,500,000	—	1,629	—	$10,743	$17,500,000	1	Lionsgate / Roadside Attractions
4	A Wrinkle in Time	$17,000,000	-49%	3,980	0	$4,271	$61,494,654	2	Walt Disney Pictures
5	Love, Simon	$12,000,000	—	2,402	—	$4,996	$12,000,000	1	20th Century Fox
6	Game Night	$6,200,000	-21%	2,686	-375	$2,308	$54,804,184	4	Warner Bros.
7	Peter Rabbit	$5,100,000	-25%	2,725	-387	$1,872	$102,340,268	6	Sony / Columbia
8	The Strangers: Prey At Night	$5,000,000	-52%	2,464	0	$2,029	$5,000,000	2	Aviron Pictures
9	Red Sparrow	$4,800,000	-44%	2,583	-481	$1,858	$39,933,642	3	20th Century Fox
10	Death Wish	$3,600,000	-45%	2,676	-206	$1,345	$30,181,685	3	MGM
11	Jumanji: Welcome To The Jungle	$1,900,000	-31%	1,556	-601	$1,221	$400,523,598	13	Sony / Columbia
12	Annihilation	$1,800,000	-45%	1,087	-622	$1,656	$29,694,743	4	Paramount Pictures
13	The Hurricane Heist	$1,000,000	-67%	2,283	-119	$438	$5,335,921	2	Entertainment Studios Motion Pictures

[sfran43]

So Box office pro is predicting that BP will have a $30M weekend. 

[ban1o]

4 minutes ago, Zakiyyah6 said:

I'm a black Muslim and I knew about it because it played on the radio every minute of every day.

Yeah I was saying that since I was only 8 when it was released maybe it just didn't register to me. I probably heard it on the radio. The chorus sounds faintly familiar. 

 

But it's definitely not something I've heard regularly. I would have never guessed it was the best selling christian pop song lmao. 

 

Edited March 17, 2018 by ban1o

[Alli]

Red Sparrow held pretty good considering the theater loss, right? How much is the weekend projection?