Weekend Box Office: Actuals (Page 55): BP $26.6M TR $23.7M ICOI $17.1M AWIT $16.3M LS $11.8M, PR crosses $100M, Jumanji crosses $400M

[Deja23]

14 minutes ago, LonePirate said:

 

I am starting to believe that there might be some self-sorting at play with these Cinemascores. Except for possibly Wonder, each of the other four films played heavily to the target audiences for the film. The audiences who rushed out to see those films on opening night were predisposed to like those films no matter what, although the good reviews for Coco, BP and LS certainly helped. People not likely to enjoy those films probably stayed away on opening night thus not impacting the grade.

 

It is going to be very interesting to see what sort of legs sprout for both ICOI and LS. Will other audiences show up once the supply of the core audience has been exhausted?

Haven’t CinemaScores always been about capturing the opinions of people most interested in the movie that they choose to watch it opening day? Even with Wonder, it’s not like people unfamiliar with the source material or unmoved by the trailers would randomly choose to watch it on opening day. Same with horror films, comic book movies, Star Wars, and faith-based films, action films, etc. It’s nothing new. Pleasing those most interested in the movie to the point that they overwhelmingly love the movie is a perfect way to ensure they would highly recommend the movie to though who would've otherwise been uninterested. Coco and Wonder affected each other last year as they were playing to similar audiences. ICOI and LS have very different target audiences so they should both be able to do well. ICOI will have a harder time if Paul is similarly well received. 

[sfran43]

 

[sfran43]

 

[WrathOfHan]

25 minutes ago, MovieMan89 said:

The weekend its releasing will definitely boost Paul, no doubt. Just won't be surprised if ICOI steals most of its thunder is all. GND3 on the other hand might go sub 10m total based on the drop of the last one. Can't imagine much interest in that one. 

That's being generous; sub-6M wouldn't be surprising

[LonePirate]

24 minutes ago, Deja23 said:

Haven’t CinemaScores always been about capturing the opinions of people most interested in the movie that they choose to watch it opening day? Even with Wonder, it’s not like people unfamiliar with the source material or unmoved by the trailers would randomly choose to watch it on opening day. Same with horror films, comic book movies, Star Wars, and faith-based films, action films, etc. It’s nothing new. Pleasing those most interested in the movie to the point that they overwhelmingly love the movie is a perfect way to ensure they would highly recommend the movie to though who would've otherwise been uninterested. Coco and Wonder affected each other last year as they were playing to similar audiences. ICOI and LS have very different target audiences so they should both be able to do well. ICOI will have a harder time if Paul is similarly well received. 

Let me toss out a some recent examples for discussion. Tomb Raider surely played to audiences who were familiar with the source material (either the game of the Jolie film). Its B grade surely didn’t come entirely from those viewers as those seeking an action flick or a movie with a hot woman in it probably also lined up to see it. That movie will be lucky to escape a 60% drop this coming weekend. Granted, it is not a good movie but OD audience anticipation is not an indicator of success.

 

Then you have a film like The Greatest Showman. It played to people on OW who had no idea if it was a comedy or drama or musical. Granted the Wednesday opening before Christmas Monday skews its legs. Still, it has almost a 9x multiplier for its 6 day opening, which is insane even for a film with just an A score. Maybe it barely missed that A+ grade, though.

[Sheikh]

 

[sfran43]

 

[Porthos]

TW	LW	Title (click to view)	Studio	Weekend Gross	% Change	Theater Count / Change		Average	Total Gross	Budget*	Week #
1	1	Black Panther	BV	$26,650,690	-34.7%	3,834	-108	$6,951	$605,027,218	-	5
2	N	Tomb Raider	WB	$23,710,000	-	3,854	-	$6,152	$23,710,000	$94	1
3	N	I Can Only Imagine	RAtt.	$17,064,640	-	1,629	-	$10,476	$17,064,640	$7	1
4	2	A Wrinkle in Time	BV	$16,256,879	-50.9%	3,980	-	$4,085	$60,751,533	-	2
5	N	Love, Simon	Fox	$11,756,244	-	2,402	-	$4,894	$11,756,244	$17	1
6	5	Game Night	WB (NL)	$5,600,000	-28.8%	2,686	-375	$2,085	$54,204,184	$37	4
7	6	Peter Rabbit	Sony	$5,201,647	-23.2%	2,725	-387	$1,909	$102,441,915	$50	6
8	3	Strangers: Prey at Night	Aviron	$4,701,089	-54.8%	2,464	-	$1,908	$18,503,141	-	2
9	4	Red Sparrow	Fox	$4,531,187	-46.7%	2,583	-481	$1,754	$39,664,829	$69	3
10	7	Death Wish (2018)	MGM	$3,368,565	-48.8%	2,676	-206	$1,259	$29,950,250	$30	3
11	8	Annihilation	Par.	$1,733,605	-47.5%	1,087	-622	$1,595	$29,628,348	$40	4
12	10	Jumanji: Welcome to the Jungle	Sony	$1,622,505	-40.8%	1,556	-601	$1,043	$400,246,103	$90	13
13	N	7 Days in Entebbe	Focus	$1,592,645	-	838	-	$1,901	$1,592,645	-	1
14	13	The Greatest Showman	Fox	$1,134,199	-40.7%	737	-215	$1,539	$169,703,817	$84	13
15	9	The Hurricane Heist	ENTMP	$1,033,247	-65.8%	2,283	-119	$453	$5,369,167	$35	2
16	12	The Shape of Water	FoxS	$793,617	-66.2%	758	-794	$1,047	$62,682,254	-	16
17	11	Gringo	STX	$655,891	-75.9%	2,314	-90	$283	$4,522,102	-	2
18	14	Fifty Shades Freed	Uni.	$610,535	-55.4%	873	-484	$699	$99,626,835	$55	6
19	29	The Death of Stalin	IFC	$537,497	+190.8%	32	+28	$16,797	$801,066	-	2
20	15	Thoroughbreds	Focus	$487,690	-60.2%	564	+15	$865	$2,294,050	-	2
21	N	Raid (2018)	Eros	$423,817	-	77	-	$5,504	$423,817	-	1
22	17	Three Billboards Outside Ebbing, Missouri	FoxS	$266,797	-61.6%	282	-270	$946	$53,890,421	-	19
23	20	A Fantastic Woman	SPC	$192,471	-29.1%	190	+24	$1,013	$1,484,490	-	7
24	25	Coco	BV	$184,351	-28.8%	177	-17	$1,042	$209,170,730	-	17
25	22	Star Wars: The Last Jedi	BV	$174,756	-34.2%	211	-35	$828	$619,791,373	-	14
26	28	Ferdinand	Fox	$166,091	-13.5%	169	-32	$983	$83,725,454	$111	14
27	35	The Leisure Seeker	SPC	$142,355	+25.2%	49	+21	$2,905	$320,311	-	5
28	18	The Post	Fox	$132,503	-59.7%	159	-119	$833	$81,426,402	$50	13
29	19	Call Me by Your Name	SPC	$121,703	-58.5%	118	-191	$1,031	$17,736,560	-	17
30	24	I, Tonya	Neon	$121,595	-53.8%	160	-83	$760	$29,755,240

[MovieMan89]

Bummer to see BP down so much in the estimates. That probably squashes any hope of a 6th week at #1 next weekend. Though it's certainly possible nothing cracks 20m.  

[Deja23]

8 minutes ago, LonePirate said:

Let me toss out a some recent examples for discussion. Tomb Raider surely played to audiences who were familiar with the source material (either the game of the Jolie film). Its B grade surely didn’t come entirely from those viewers as those seeking an action flick or a movie with a hot woman in it probably also lined up to see it. That movie will be lucky to escape a 60% drop this coming weekend. Granted, it is not a good movie but OD audience anticipation is not an indicator of success.

 

Then you have a film like The Greatest Showman. It played to people on OW who had no idea if it was a comedy or drama or musical. Granted the Wednesday opening before Christmas Monday skews its legs. Still, it has almost a 9x multiplier for its 6 day opening, which is insane even for a film with just an A score. Maybe it barely missed that A+ grade, though.

Tomb Raider’s B score means it wasn’t loved by the audience who went to watch it on OD, and that’s echoed by the reviews on this site with most saying it’s ok and they liked it, and some not liking it. None of what’s been said about that movie makes me more interested in watching it. Whereas, I wasn’t initially interested in Love, Simon, but with the reviews on here and my Twitter feed, I’ll probably go watch it. As for The Greatest Showman, it had an A score, which is a great score for a musical. Into The Woods has a B score, Mamma Mia has an A- score. BatB (2017) also had A and did really well at the box office. I think IT’s B+ is possibly the equivalent of A+ for horror films and that showed in its WoM. There’s no perfect rule, but I think CinemaScores have always been a gauge of the interested audience’s satisfaction with the movie they watched. When they feel the movie exceeds their expectations, they rate it higher and are more likely to not just recommend it, but go watch it again with others. 

[Jake Gittes]

I love the fact that Love Simon is still listed as action/adventure on BOM.

[WrathOfHan]

Black Panther ain't escaping a high-30s drop this weekend. Might breach 40% too  

 

5 minutes ago, Jake Gittes said:

I love the fact that Love Simon is still listed as action/adventure on BOM.

Greg Berlanti. His power.

[WrathOfHan]

Updated BP forecast:

Remainder of this week: 9.5M (614.5M Total)

Mar 23: 14.6M (5.5M weekdays, 634.6M Total)

Mar 30: 7.8M (3.7M weekdays, 646.1M Total)

Apr 6: 4.9M (1.7M weekdays, 652.7M Total)

Apr 13: 2.7M (1M weekdays,  656.4M Total)

Apr 20: 2M (600k weekdays, 659M Total)

Apr 27: 900k (200k weekdays, 660.1M Total)

Final Total: 662M (3.28x)

 

We'll see how close it stays to last week's dailies, because the Friday increase is bound to be smaller with five wide openers.

[LonePirate]

24 minutes ago, Jake Gittes said:

I love the fact that Love Simon is still listed as action/adventure on BOM.

The mystery at the heart of the film might have someone there thinking it is an adventure film. Then again, with the death of the rom com genre, maybe they removed that category from their web template so they just chose the first option in the list.

[That One Girl]

2 minutes ago, LonePirate said:

The mystery at the heart of the film might have someone there thinking it is an adventure film. Then again, with the death of the rom com genre, maybe they removed that category from their web template so they just chose the first option in the list.

 

Nah it's cause it was originally an "untitled Greg Berlanti film" and they thought it would be an action film and woop de doo it's the exact opposite of one

[sfran43]

 

[CJohn]

Dreading at the fact that a supernova bomb in the form of Uprising is gonna take BP out of the top spot.

[grim22]

5 minutes ago, CJohn said:

Dreading at the fact that a supernova bomb in the form of Uprising is gonna take BP out of the top spot.

It won't, but Sherlock Gnomes will.

[intenso]

9 minutes ago, CJohn said:

Dreading at the fact that a supernova bomb in the form of Uprising is gonna take BP out of the top spot.

Lucky that it comes out so late into BP run. PRU looks like a huge clusterfuck indeed.

Edited March 19, 2018 by intenso

[cmbbox2390]

45 minutes ago, WrathOfHan said:

Black Panther ain't escaping a high-30s drop this weekend. Might breach 40% too  

 

Greg Berlanti. His power.

I’m curious how was your last weekend forecast compared to the actually results? I think your final total prediction is really pessimistic considering the drops it had so far. I think the rock bottom is $662M at this point. It’s holding better than Jurassic World and ahead of it about $15M. I can’t imagine it only doing just $10M more.