Godzilla: King of the Monsters OS thread

[keysersoze123]

3 minutes ago, Cookson said:

No you can’t. It’s opening in pretty much every territory this weekend with like 3 territories talking about low numbers. Holy crap let’s wait a bit. You know better than this.

we have got range of numbers across different markets in Europe and Asia. its all way down from G14. Even Taiwan is down from G14 and so there are no good news minus China(which should beat G14). We dont have Latin America numbers but currencies are in horrible shape(Mxn Peso down 33%, Real down 50% and Argentina Peso down 80% !!! ).

 

Only couple of major markets we are waiting for are Germany and Japan. Germany we should get data today and Japan we should get on Saturday. They are not going to change the carnage we have seen otherwise.

 

BTW Every currency is down from 2014. Some are down like 10% and others are down like 20-40% and some even worse as I posted above.

[Alex SciChannel]

4 minutes ago, keysersoze123 said:

we have got range of numbers across different markets in Europe and Asia. its all way down from G14. Even Taiwan is down from G14 and so there are no good news minus China(which should beat G14). We dont have Latin America numbers but currencies are in horrible shape(Mxn Peso down 33%, Real down 50% and Argentina Peso down 80% !!! ).

 

Only couple of major markets we are waiting for are Germany and Japan. Germany we should get data today and Japan we should get on Saturday. They are not going to change the carnage we have seen otherwise.

 

BTW Every currency is down from 2014. Some are down like 10% and others are down like 20-40% and some even worse as I posted above.

Wait I thought Taiwan was up 20%

[Cookson]

6 minutes ago, keysersoze123 said:

we have got range of numbers across different markets in Europe and Asia. its all way down from G14. Even Taiwan is down from G14 and so there are no good news minus China(which should beat G14). We dont have Latin America numbers but currencies are in horrible shape(Mxn Peso down 33%, Real down 50% and Argentina Peso down 80% !!! ).

 

Only couple of major markets we are waiting for are Germany and Japan. Germany we should get data today and Japan we should get on Saturday. They are not going to change the carnage we have seen otherwise.

 

BTW Every currency is down from 2014. Some are down like 10% and others are down like 20-40% and some even worse as I posted above.

So currency problems makes it a bomb?

 

Get out of here with this ridiculously terrible analysis.

 

It’s extremely too early still. Yes it could very well bomb, BUT IT’S TOO EARLY. 

 

Comparisons should be with KSI as well. G14 was a first film in years.

Edited May 30, 2019 by Cookson

[keysersoze123]

Just now, Alex SciChannel said:

Wait I thought Taiwan was up 20%

From Kong. But down from G2014 according to @Olive.

 

Olive,

  Can you confirm how much its dropping?

[keysersoze123]

Just now, Cookson said:

So currency problems makes it a bomb?

 

Get out of here with this ridiculously terrible analysis.

 

It’s extremely too early still. Yes it could very well bomb, BUT IT’S TOO EARLY. 

Its anyway crashing in many markets. Currency rates makes it worse. its not as if G14 did great in OS markets. 250-C for spectacle movie is just not good.

 

Anyway I am out of this thread until we get more numbers. You are free to believe what you want.

[Alex SciChannel]

1 minute ago, keysersoze123 said:

From Kong. But down from G2014 according to @Olive.

 

Olive,

  Can you confirm how much its dropping?

So how do you distinguish which source is more credible? Or did you just pick the one that best suits your opinion?

[Cookson]

3 minutes ago, keysersoze123 said:

Its anyway crashing in many markets. Currency rates makes it worse. its not as if G14 did great in OS markets. 250-C for spectacle movie is just not good.

 

Anyway I am out of this thread until we get more numbers. You are free to believe what you want.

You’ve got no concrete evidence of it failing in many markets. Out of all the territories it’s opening I want you to list who has numbers currently. Don’t say “it’s down here. And numbers come out later”... no actually list the territories with any current numbers. Anything like “well it’s low here so will be low there” isn’t anything bud. “Many markets” is not analysis.

Edited May 30, 2019 by Cookson

[keysersoze123]

3 minutes ago, Alex SciChannel said:

So how do you distinguish which source is more credible? Or did you just pick the one that best suits your opinion?

Olive is very reliable. Go to HK/Taiwan thread. He has been the one providing info for past many years in this forum. He was the one who said it was 20% above Kong but down from G14.

[Cookson]

I see 4 territories talking about low numbers. 1 decent and better than Kong. You must be on a ton of international forums to declare a bomb so early.

[Olive]

14 minutes ago, keysersoze123 said:

From Kong. But down from G2014 according to @Olive.

 

Olive,

  Can you confirm how much its dropping?

GKOM 22.14M local

G2014 28M local

[Alex SciChannel]

Just now, Olive said:

GKOM 22.14M local

G2014 28M local

That's not much of a difference.

[Brainbug]

Guys.

 

Its Thursday.

[Alex SciChannel]

11 minutes ago, keysersoze123 said:

Olive is very reliable. Go to HK/Taiwan thread. He has been the one providing info for past many years in this forum. He was the one who said it was 20% above Kong but down from G14.

Wait, G14 grossed more than Kong in these 4 territories you're mentioning. Yet Kong has a bigger OS than G14. Doesn't that show underpreformance of a few countries doesn't really affect the overrall total that much.

[Justin4125]

I mean shitty ER globally certainly doesnt help, but I honestly wouldnt worry too much about that. It may bring down OS grosses 5-10% compared to what it would have earned last year (a bit more compared to 2014 obviously) but WB will take that into account when assessing the franchise financially, and it certainly wont cause the film to bomb

 

Its hard for me to understand why we're freaking out with only sparse OD data. ODs themselves can be very misleading. Lets see what happens with the weekend, but nothing I have seen so far has shaken my confidence that it will beat Aladdin's 3-day opening WW.

 

To the next person who prematurely labels the film as a bomb before we have the full picture, I will think negative thoughts while focusing on your username and avatar, you've been warned 

Edited May 30, 2019 by Justin4125
Grammar

[keysersoze123]

Ok. Enough Doom talk from me. Let us wait for more numbers.

[Sunny Max]

9 minutes ago, Alex SciChannel said:

That's not much of a difference.

Not Much Of Difference ... Right .. But dont Forget About 5 Years Difference .. 

 

Poor Start By GKOM ..

[Alex SciChannel]

4 minutes ago, Sunny Max said:

Not Much Of Difference ... Right .. But dont Forget About 5 Years Difference .. 

 

Poor Start By GKOM ..

Correct, except the budgets are also inflated as well as the grosses, so no not poor. Actually a pretty good hold

[Taruseth]

1 hour ago, keysersoze123 said:

we have got range of numbers across different markets in Europe and Asia. its all way down from G14. Even Taiwan is down from G14 and so there are no good news minus China(which should beat G14). We dont have Latin America numbers but currencies are in horrible shape(Mxn Peso down 33%, Real down 50% and Argentina Peso down 80% !!! ).

 

Only couple of major markets we are waiting for are Germany and Japan. Germany we should get data today and Japan we should get on Saturday. They are not going to change the carnage we have seen otherwise.

 

BTW Every currency is down from 2014. Some are down like 10% and others are down like 20-40% and some even worse as I posted above.

In Germany, G14 opened with 345k (+38k Previews = 383k) that were back then $4.966m (+$0.534m = $5.500m) based on ER back then (€1 ≈ $1.37) that were €3.63m (+€0.39m ≈ €4.02m)

The movie now will open to probably 150k (+20k Previews) (taking €11 as avg TP) that would be €1.65m (+€0.22m ≈ €1.87m) that would be with current ER (€1 ≈ $1.11 (-19%)) $1.83m (+$0.24m ≈ $2.07m)

That would be (for the true weekend) a 56.5% drop in adm, a 54.5% drop in € (maybe ticket price will be slightly higher) and a 63.1% drop in $, but this movie should at least match the 2.77 multi (adm) probably around 2.7x in $ that G14 had, cause that's an awful low multi, normally movies at least get a 3x (some exceptions are Fast 8 with a 2.83x, BvS with a 2.77x and Endgame will probably be one too (it opened with 1.672m (or 2134k for the 5-day) and it will have a final of 5m adm. (or like 20k less) below and 5m would be a 2.99x from the 4-day or a 2.34x from the 5-day).

 

 

We don't have numbers yet but most things don't point towards this being nice and it all gets worse because today is a holiday in all of Germany and the comps I have point towards a 150k Opening (+ Previews).

I just looked at the weather report... 30°C on Sunday, so nop this won't increase, especially as at least in northern Germany, the weather today is cold and a little rainy, which should strengthen today even more.

 

 

But I think the holiday might throw of the comps and maybe make everything look like the presales are bad for the Weekend, so there still is a little hope.

 

 

China will make the OWend look better though.

Edited May 30, 2019 by Taruseth

[Cookson]

Kong’s overseas gross was 398.

of that China was 168. If we deduct 168 and put in what G14 made in China(77) the OS gross is 307. About 20 less than G14.

 

HYPOTHETICALLY Let’s discuss if KotMs OS(minus China) gross is 40m less than G14. That would be 211. Now let’s add 140m from China... that would be 351. 351 would be higher than G14 but less than Kong. Definitely not a OS bomb.

[Taruseth]

2 minutes ago, Alex SciChannel said:

Correct, except the budgets are also inflated as well as the grosses, so no not poor. Actually a pretty good hold

Please explain that to me.